Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[idiot09]

So we're not allowed to wonder why suddenly it would play such A BIGGER part in the frontloading of the DC films albeit they feature similar characters? And what would be the other things explaining that frontloading ?

Jesus christ,whats with this militant attitude?When have I ever asked you to stop wondering what plays a part in frontloading of DC films?

I said it played a part,I never said it played a bigger part for SS than other DC movies so dont twist my words.

 

[rashad]

Friday Estimate
$6,025,000 +68.7% / $1,535
$247,598,335

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Good number for 3rd Friday, I think we are set for a 21.5 million 3rd weekend.

 

[JKKS085]

Jesus christ,whats with this militant attitude?When have I ever asked you to stop wondering what plays a part in frontloading of DC films?

I said it played a part,I never said it played a bigger part for SS than other DC movies so dont twist my words.

You assume no one will or should elaborate simply because you said it played A part. You jumped the gun. At no point was I downplaying the part played by hype and marketing. I was merely saying that examples in the past from the similar studio, with comparable hype and fearuring the same Ips displayed less frontloading. I was just trying to maybe open a discussion.
You're the one putting words in my mouth man.

And if you want some militant attitude, Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain.

 

[idiot09]

You assume no one will or should elaborate simply because you said it played A part. You jumped the gun. At no point was I downplaying the part played by hype and marketing. I was merely saying that examples in the past from the similar studio, with comparable hype and fearuring the same Ips displayed less frontloading. I was just trying to maybe open a discussion.
You're the one putting words in my mouth man.

And if you want some militant attitude, Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain.

a)I havent claimed you said anything,so I didnt twist any of your words.While you did because I said "it played a part" while you were arguing "whether it played a big part".And you again say "You assumed no one will elaborate "..when have I stopped anyone from elaborating or discussing this said topic?I merely stated my reading of the situation.You are free to disagree with it.But okay,lets put this down to miscommunication,and I will believe your intentions were not bad.

b) First,I claimed SS's marketing played a part in the frontloading.You seem to agree with my on this.That was the only thing I claimed and we agree on that I think.Moving on to your question about comparing it to other movies.

c)I dont think comparing it to TDKR is a good comparison despite the similarities.Why?And these are just my opinions here.I thought the TDKR is a great movie.I was not surprised by its great BO run.SS is not a "great" movie imo.Its a decent fun flick.TDKR was made by Nolan,thats a big thing and shouldnt be compared to SS which is meant to be a much smaller movie so I am not surprised by its lesser BO performance.And regarding the drop,I dont think TDKR(a Batman movie made by Nolan after the TDK) making $160mil OW is overachieving.However a Suicide Squad movie making $133mil OW is certainly over achieving in my book,which imo was partly down to the absolutely brilliant marketing and the fanboy effect.Had it completely derailed after OW like other movies we know,then I would have agreed with you.However its more like the Twilight saga or HP sequels where it has a decent run after the over-achieving OW.Thats my opinion,and my reading of the situation.

 

[Wildcard]

3rd assertion:
I can't find where I addressed this before (otherwise I would quote it here) but there definitely appears to be a component of popularity with hating on the films of the DCEU, far more than is warranted. Do these movies have problems? Sure they do but not (IMHO) to the degree of the outright vitriol they have received from many. Unfortunately, critical assessments from both critics and the general audience are often subjective in nature and totally susceptible to influence.

Oh, no, no, no, no. Don't you dare quote me and say I'm hating on the DCEU when I've been showing nothing but support and have actively stated I enjoyed MoS, BvS & SS. Just because I said WB is over-spending (which they are) does not equate to me hating.

Come correct.

 

[Marvin]

Not bad, after this weekend it would conceivably only need 40 or so mill to crack 300dom. I also hear it's going for 650plus ww. Solid numbers.

Most films of this nature seem to do about 30 to 40 after the third weekend.
GotG did something like 100(and some) but that seems rare(curse of black pearl rare)...Though the black pearl wasn't the 11th film in a franchise smack dab in the middle of it's wildly popular run of the genre. I think SS fans should be flattered that the film they like is being compared to something like that tbh. It would do well to be compared to the likes of TWS(it's non china take in particular), 260 would be very significant, or Thor's...or most pertinently the third film in the mcu, budgets and all.

At this point I'm surprised fox fans don't just compare all solos to deadpool, then when one of the odd solos shows up in a discussion, one that actually outdoes it domestically, just point to the revenue argument. That's kinda how it goes now.

The numbers are pretty solid.
As for all the front loading talk, I'm sure wb is happy with a 300 plus haul on a property like this, especially given what alot of solos tend to do. That being said, like alot of the detractors keep harping on, this supposedly had big draws to it, joker and such(not sure what else), it's no wonder it's performing at the momentum of some sequels, only unlike some sequels it's scored at a 27%. Not really rocket science to assert non fans and fence sitters are staying away.

One of the biggest things hampering down the comparative discussions of success is the placement of the films. Had GotG been the third film and preavengers success, it would conceivably have performed differently, especially overseas. If avengers had been the second film, the way people assert DC's 'avengers' was...
I suppose this is the price for playing it backwards, one of the benefits, hot having to slog through phase one grosses.

 

[idiot09]

Not bad, after this weekend it would conceivably only need 40 or so mill to crack 300dom. I also hear it's going for 650plus ww. Solid numbers.

Most films of this nature seem to do about 30 to 40 after the third weekend.
GotG did something like 100(and some) but that seems rare(curse of black pearl rare)...Though the black pearl wasn't the 11th film in a franchise smack dab in the middle of it's wildly popular run of the genre. I think SS fans should be flattered that the film they like is being compared to something like that tbh. It would do well to be compared to the likes of TWS(it's non china take in particular), 260 would be very significant, or Thor's...or most pertinently the third film in the mcu, budgets and all.

At this point I'm surprised fox fans don't just compare all solos to deadpool, then when one of the odd solos shows up in a discussion, one that actually outdoes it domestically, just point to the revenue argument. That's kinda how it goes now.

The numbers are pretty solid.
As for all the front loading talk, I'm sure wb is happy with a 300 plus haul on a property like this, especially given what alot of solos tend to do. That being said, like alot of the detractors keep harping on, this supposedly had big draws to it, joker and such(not sure what else), it's no wonder it's performing at the momentum of some sequels, only unlike some sequels it's scored at a 27%. Not really rocket science to assert non fans and fence sitters are staying away.

One of the biggest things hampering down the comparative discussions of success is the placement of the films. Had GotG been the third film and preavengers success, it would conceivably have performed differently, especially overseas. If avengers had been the second film, the way people assert DC's 'avengers' was...
I suppose this is the price for playing it backwards, one of the benefits, hot having to slog through phase one grosses.

Exactly.The fact that SS despite its reviews is performing well,is a good thing.As you said,the numbers are solid.I completely agree with you.Very well put.(Although I dont know why people compare BvS to Avengers,while the more apt comparison should be JL,but I get your point).

 

[dragonjo8]

Oh, no, no, no, no. Don't you dare quote me and say I'm hating on the DCEU when I've been showing nothing but support and have actively stated I enjoyed MoS, BvS & SS. Just because I said WB is over-spending (which they are) does not equate to me hating.

Come correct.

I think you might be confused. In the first place... that entire post was directed solely at metaphysician. How do you go from me quoting you with regard to production budgets to me saying you are hating on the DCEU? Go back and read it again. I never said or implied YOU were hating on the DCEU. That post was a direct response to a user that made 3 assertions (assumptions) about my breakdown of box office numbers (which was a response to a different user's assertion). You referenced the 3rd assertion. I quoted you with regard to the 2nd assertion which dealt with production budgets. Metaphysician was trying to point out I was not acknowledging the impact of budgets. I am fully aware of the budgets and used your quote to prove as such (since I completely AGREED with your post). The third assertion (which is what appears to have you upset) is in regard to the critical scores the DCEU movies have received. In my response I assert there might be a component of popularity in hating on the DCEU. Never did I imply or say that you (or anyone else that points out the DCEU's over spending on budget since.... you know...I happen to AGREE with it) were hating on the DCEU. Relax my man. It's all good.

 

[Marvin]

Exactly.The fact that SS despite its reviews is performing well,is a good thing.As you said,the numbers are solid.I completely agree with you.Very well put.(Although I dont know why people compare BvS to Avengers,while the more apt comparison should be JL,but I get your point).

I used the air quotes to that effect.
There are a handful of reasons why BvS wasn't their avengers, and why JLA, even still, not quite there would be far more apt. But people need their narratives.

Reason 4, if avengers only had one returning costume, actor and all.

 

[kguillou]

Did it already open in Germany and Japan or is that later?

 

[Greenlite]

Friday Estimate
$6,025,000 +68.7% / $1,535
$247,598,335

That's considerably higher than last night's initial estimate, may break 20M after all, like I said earlier, anything over 20M is a win and well on the way to crack 300M.

So much for the "bad drop" huh, next we are gonna hear the standard "it should have done better" "too front loaded" and "it needs 800M to break even!" "it's a flop no matter what", we need something new.

 

[Greenlite]

Did it already open in Germany and Japan or is that later?

Jap in sept I think

 

[DJThrawn]

a)I havent claimed you said anything,so I didnt twist any of your words.While you did because I said "it played a part" while you were arguing "whether it played a big part".And you again say "You assumed no one will elaborate "..when have I stopped anyone from elaborating or discussing this said topic?I merely stated my reading of the situation.You are free to disagree with it.But okay,lets put this down to miscommunication,and I will believe your intentions were not bad.

b) First,I claimed SS's marketing played a part in the frontloading.You seem to agree with my on this.That was the only thing I claimed and we agree on that I think.Moving on to your question about comparing it to other movies.

c)I dont think comparing it to TDKR is a good comparison despite the similarities.Why?And these are just my opinions here.I thought the TDKR is a great movie.I was not surprised by its great BO run.SS is not a "great" movie imo.Its a decent fun flick.TDKR was made by Nolan,thats a big thing and shouldnt be compared to SS which is meant to be a much smaller movie so I am not surprised by its lesser BO performance.And regarding the drop,I dont think TDKR(a Batman movie made by Nolan after the TDK) making $160mil OW is overachieving.However a Suicide Squad movie making $133mil OW is certainly over achieving in my book,which imo was partly down to the absolutely brilliant marketing and the fanboy effect.Had it completely derailed after OW like other movies we know,then I would have agreed with you.However its more like the Twilight saga or HP sequels where it has a decent run after the over-achieving OW.Thats my opinion,and my reading of the situation.

I think comparing any DC movie or CMB to The Dark Knight Rises is about as foolhardy as possible. It's gross and drop figure were drastically altered by a movie theater shooting by a maniac who stated the Joker was an influence here in the US. Caused a larger drop than would have otherwise and stifled its box office by possibly 150 million by rough estimates at the time. No other comic book movie has had that to deal with so comparing numbers to it doesn't make sense.

 

[morningmimosa]

Did it already open in Germany and Japan or is that later?

Yep, it's been screening in German theaters since thursday.

 

[brandeezy89]

According to the media, Wonder Woman already needs 800M+ to be successful

JL needs 1.5B+

Flash needs 800M+

Aquaman needs 800M+

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

That's considerably higher than last night's initial estimate, may break 20M after all, like I said earlier, anything over 20M is a win and well on the way to crack 300M.

So much for the "bad drop" huh, next we are gonna hear the standard "it should have done better" "too front loaded" and "it needs 800M to break even!" "it's a flop no matter what", we need something new.

I'm surprised it had made so much, I admit it didn't look interesting to me but I support the underdog DCEU and am glad to see them once again have a hit despite the vitriol aimed at them.

 

[Longshot777]

Marvel was treated as an underdog in the beginning and was playing with house money. So whatever they put up it becomes gold easily even their mediocre movies like The Incredible Hulk, Iroman 2, Thor 2, and Ironman 3 were given a pass.

While DC is treated as huge favorites since they are the first comic company and owns the Big 3 and most accurately the the first top 2 Icons in history in Superman and Batman that their movies has to be perfect or else it's a failure.

 

[Marvin]

According to the media, Wonder Woman already needs 800M+ to be successful

JL needs 1.5B+

Flash needs 800M+

Aquaman needs 800M+

make that 1.6
dc characters are bigger after all.

 

[idiot09]

Spiderman is much more popular than Batman or Superman.Spiderman sells much more merchandise than Batman and Superman combined and its not even close.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...r/news+(The+Hollywood+Reporter+-+Top+Stories)

He is the most popular superhero imo.I'm excited for Homecoming

But for DC and Marvel sans Spiderman,yeah Batman/Superman are the big two.

 

[Greenlite]

Rth says 8.7M Sat, and SS's drop last sat-sun was 26%, GOTG was 24% 2nd Sun and 3rd Sun. Apparently guys there say August movies usually fall around 30%. So a 30% fall gives them = 20.7-20.8M, and if it holds similarly to last week then it could reach/pass 21M

Rth also said international should be 306-310M by the end of the weekend. So that'd put SS at 566-570M WW by the week's end.

And by then I'll re-post that xeno guy's prediction of 500-550M WW, just because.

Well he did say my prediction of 650-700M is only "what I wanted" and "unrealistic"

t:t:t:

 

[idiot09]

Rth says 8.7M Sat, and SS's drop last sat-sun was 26%, GOTG was 24% 2nd Sun and 3rd Sun. Apparently guys there say August movies usually fall around 30%. So a 30% fall gives them = 20.7-20.8M, and if it holds similarly to last week then it could reach/pass 21M

Rth also said international should be 306-310M by the end of the weekend. So that'd put SS at 566-570M WW by the week's end.

And by then I'll re-post that xeno guy's prediction of 500-550M WW, just because.

Well he did say my prediction of 650-700M is only "what I wanted" and "unrealistic"

t:t:t:

If SS had released in China,it had real chance of grossing above $700mil.

Considering the latest numbers,I would say $625-650 mil would be the final result,which would be great!

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Rth says 8.7M Sat, and SS's drop last sat-sun was 26%, GOTG was 24% 2nd Sun and 3rd Sun. Apparently guys there say August movies usually fall around 30%. So a 30% fall gives them = 20.7-20.8M, and if it holds similarly to last week then it could reach/pass 21M

Rth also said international should be 306-310M by the end of the weekend. So that'd put SS at 566-570M WW by the week's end.

And by then I'll re-post that xeno guy's prediction of 500-550M WW, just because.

Well he did say my prediction of 650-700M is only "what I wanted" and "unrealistic"

t:t:t:

Great news. t:

After the 6 million 3rd Friday, I was hoping for 8.5 million 3rd Saturday and 7 million 3rd Sunday which when added puts the 3rd weekend total at 21.5 million. Looks like it might just exceed my expectations for the weekend.

 

[Greenlite]

If SS had released in China,it had real chance of grossing above $700mil.

Considering the latest numbers,I would say $625-650 mil would be the final result,which would be great!

The hot scoop I pinched from BOT is that if it finishes on the high end 400 OS will happen! Take it with a grain of salt and I don't think it will quite happen but one can

Great news. t:

After the 6 million 3rd Friday, I was hoping for 8.5 million 3rd Saturday and 7 million 3rd Sunday which when added puts the 3rd weekend total at 21.5 million. Looks like it might just exceed my expectations for the weekend.

Looks like your projection might happen after all!

 

[kguillou]

Great news, guys. I'm so happy despite everything this is doing well.

WB, greenlight dat sequel. Just do it. And do it RIGHT this time!! t: