Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[JKKS085]

he's probably as objective as you based on your post history

We thank you for taking the time to review our post history and want to inform you that based on your latest contributions you just made our very select ignore list. Thanks again for your time.

 

[JtheDreamer]

he's probably as objective as you based on your post history

Except his movie just "broke even" with another 80-100M to go, oh well, what a flop eh.

Where is this supposed extra "80-100M" going to be scraped from?

CA: Civil war was loved by critics and the GA and it only did approx. $49.7 million from Week 4 on til the end of its run. You're out of your mind if you think SS will out-produce it.

 

[JKKS085]

So in other word (of course) Ayer has more current information than Mojo.

At this point of its run, I think Mojo updates the international numbers just once or twice a week. WB probably has the up to date Mon-Thu international numbers hence why Ayer is celebrating SS grossing over 600M in "real time".

 

[JtheDreamer]

At this point of its run, I think Mojo updates the international numbers just once or twice a week. WB probably has the up to date Mon-Thu international numbers hence why Ayer is celebrating SS grossing over 600M in "real time".

No, no my dear Watson - it's a conspiracy. BoxOfficeMojo is out to misrepresent the DCEU.

 

[Kathemy]

Where is this supposed extra "80-100M" going to be scraped from?

CA: Civil war was loved by critics and the GA and it only did approx. $49.7 million from Week 4 on til the end of its run. You're out of your mind if you think SS will out-produce it.

Correction, from day 21 onward Captain America: Civil War did approximately $52m domestic.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Correction, from day 21 onward Captain America: Civil War did approximately $52m domestic.

You're correct - Domestic.

Without rounded numbers it was $50,141,016

So again, SS isn't out-grossing CA:CW neither domestically nor internationally into the end of its run. $80-$100million is a pipe dream at this point.

 

[The Joker]

If you all wish to continue this debate, I suggest you do it without insulting each other.

he's probably as objective as you based on your post history

Some friendly advice, Greenlite; don't ignore moderator warnings. You tend not to last long if you do.

 

[Kathemy]

I counted the numbers from 21 forward (including 21.) We have no Mojo data yet on day 21. Unrounded: $52,339,338

It's very hard to forecast from the domestic what the worldwide number will be in this manner, with one market yet to open and in early running in other places - remember, there is still the very remote possibility that the Japanese will go crazy about it - but I don't think it'll do 100 million. I predicted a final gross of around $675m a few pages ago and I still think that's approximately where it will land. Most people seem to predict 300-315 DOM with some optimists and some doom-and-gloomers. I see no realistic way for it to stall below $650m and next to no way for it to top $700m. Then again I'm not a wizard.

 

[LoganGambit87]

At this point of its run, I think Mojo updates the international numbers just once or twice a week. WB probably has the up to date Mon-Thu international numbers hence why Ayer is celebrating SS grossing over 600M in "real time".

box office mojo is very slow it takes them like 4-5 days to update international numbers lol

 

[JtheDreamer]

I counted the numbers from 21 forward (including 21.) We have no Mojo data yet on day 21. Unrounded: $52,339,338

It's very hard to forecast from the domestic what the worldwide number will be in this manner, with one market yet to open and in early running in other places - remember, there is still the very remote possibility that the Japanese will go crazy about it - but I don't think it'll do 100 million. I predicted a final gross of around $675m a few pages ago and I still think that's approximately where it will land. Most people seem to predict 300-315 DOM with some optimists and some doom-and-gloomers. I see no realistic way for it to stall below $650m and next to no way for it to top $700m. Then again I'm not a wizard.

$650-$675 has always been the range I've given. So we agree there.

 

[Knight-Tale]

Now David Ayer is compromised
I mean clearly he must be on Paul Fieg status and trying to bury the lead about where success for this movie lies

 

[Kathemy]

Now David Ayer is compromised
I mean clearly he must be on Paul Fieg status and trying to bury the lead about where success for this movie lies

Now I'm... confused.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Now David Ayer is compromised
I mean clearly he must be on Paul Fieg status and trying to bury the lead about where success for this movie lies

Huh?

 

[Kathemy]

Last weekend gross was:

DOM $262,428,736
FOR $313,000,000

FOR/DOM = ~1.193

Lowball predicted DOM: 300 -> FOR 358
Highball: 315 -> FOR 376

Estimated Japan gross (add, unopened market): $15,000,000 (Suicide Squad is matching Batman v Superman in both South Korea and Taiwan so it seems unreasonable it will bomb)

Final prediction range: $673m - $706m

According to this admittedly crude calculation $700m is a distant possibility. I may have been a bit pessimistic.

 

[idiot09]

How is that a success?

Let's just say it finishes with a $300million gross in the states and $350million gross internationally.

They get 50% of the cut here = $150million
They get 35% of the cut abroad = $122.50million

That only amounts to a boxoffice cume of roughly $272million that doesn't even cover the entire costs of both production and marketing.

According to the same logic,CA 2 isnt a financial success either.But naturally thats not true.To pretend that SS isnt a financial hit at this point is...ah I'm not even bothered now.

 

[kguillou]

Wow, so suddenly $700M is a possibility? Damn, this baby has legs!

 

[Kathemy]

Don't take my word for it, that calculation has more holes than a Swiss cheese.

Wow, so suddenly $700M is a possibility? Damn, this baby has legs!

If it scores $305m DOM it beats Civil War's multiplier.

 

[idiot09]

Yeah $700M is more of a optimistic high end prediction.I see it ending up around $670M realistically.

 

[Kathemy]

As another side note I believe it's possible that Suicide Squad will end up outscoring Batman v Superman in both Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Based on the BvS shaky legs it wouldn't but as noted in the above post it's got more like CW's legs. A rough estimate I made had SS beating BvS by ~1.5m in Korea.

This is all pure speculation though.

 

[idiot09]

If it scores $305m DOM it beats Civil War's multiplier.

If this movie reaches $300-305M domestically and hits CA 3's multiplier(which it will the way its looking) that will prove that this movie has legs unlike what the people have said.

 

[Kathemy]

Anyway based on pure wishful thinking and some makeshift math I have my prediction for the Japan box office.

$17,946,419

 

[dc_mos]

Mark Hughes ‏@markhughesfilms
So if early estimates of foreign weekday receipts hold, #SuicideSquad might hit $625M worldwide this weekend & end run w/ $670+M final cume.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

Historically, auds spend final 2 wks of AUG
catching up on well-liked holdovers. That bodes
well for #Kubo, #SuicideSquad & #BadMoms.

 

[Tra-El]

I'm still gonna say $640 WW. It already destroyed my original prediction so won't mind if it does again haha.

 

[Pickleweasel]

I'm still gonna say $640 WW. It already destroyed my original prediction so won't mind if it does again haha.

It'll be at 650 by the end of next weekend