Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Ozbridge]

Anyway very good OS drop. Domestic should add at least 40M more and OS 50M. 650M is nearly locked, can pass MoS's 668M easily and 675M should happen.

The best thing about this good 3rd weekend is not that I have any deep attachment to SS's succeed (I honestly don't) but that I can come back to this thread without having to scroll through dozens of wall of text about SS barely breaks even and WB is panic and DCEU will halt at JL.

 

[Kathemy]

According to Mojo, Suicide Squad made 55 dollars in their second weekend in Iceland

Iceland 16 3 $55 -100.0% 13 -2 $4 $366,691 2

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It made 40M in the last 7 days. How can it also makes 38-43M in the next 7 days?

I think in the next 7 days SS will make around 8.5+11.5 million. By the end of the 24th day, the domestic total will be at 283 million. The following week is probably the Labour day weekend so there's that, figures may go north for that weekend.

 

[Knight-Tale]

It'll drop another 19-20 percent
Probably make 13 mil next weekend
Weekdays are gonna be lower so maybe
8 mil

Then you have the labor day bump
So you'll see anywhere from a 20-33 percent increase that wekend

By then the movie should be around 298 to 299
No real competition until Sully so Suicide Squad might be in the top 10 for awhile

That's why people are saying 300m+ is a lock now
If this movie had China it would be beating GOTG

 

[JKKS085]

It has not been a critically acclaimed hit,and no one has not even claimed it.I dont know why you are bringing that up.We all know,SS was blasted critically.Despite that SS has done well in the BO,it will end up with a decent multplier,and probably end up with a total multiplier(domestic+overseas) of around 2.5.The frontloading had many reasons(terrible reviews,quality of the movie,rewatchibility,competition,time of the year etc) and still it was better than BvS in that regard so obviously it should follow that with a better movie,and better reviews the movies have a potential of earning even more.I think rather than argue about the semantics we should both agree that SS has done well in the BO and hasnt withered away in the following weeks(it had 52% drop in the third week which is good) and that shows that this movie had legs.And I would agree with you that the movies need to do better critically and make the movies better(SS was flawed) and that would make the BO even better.

I don't say that anyone ever claimed SS has been a critically acclaimed movie, again I merely state that it has not been a critically acclaimed movie and isn't the game changer it was supposed to be. I am bringing that up (since apparently I have to justify every little thing that I say when you woefully ignore entire parts of my answer) in relation to pre-release expectations, especially after how bad BvS was received across the board to explain why Suicide Squad's performance can be viewed as disappointing in some aspects.

Now I am absolutely sorry, I've been following box office for too long to agree that SS will end up with a decent multiplier. Something around 2.25/2.27 is shockingly low for an origin movie released in August with absolutely no direct competition. Likewise A 52% 3rd week end drop is still a bad drop (especially when another August panned movie like Ninja Turtles, with GotG as competition, can drop 41%). I don't see how 52 can be considered even remotely satisfying but oh well, apparently it is to some. The fact that it did sightly better than BvS amounts to very little considering its abysmal run and the extremely low bar it set back in March. And now onto the international multiplier, with scattered release dates worldwide it was always supposed to hold better than BvS which opened everywhere at the same time. And again considering the record breaking drops of BvS it isn't exactly impressive either.

What we can agree on however is that 650M+ WW is a essentially a pretty good run for Suicide Squad. However if you review those numbers thoroughly there are some specifics you can't just put under the rug. Unless you really want to cling on to the false narrative that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

 

[Kathemy]

Even with very conservative estimates $350m+ overseas is a lock now.

 

[LoganGambit87]

650 million WW is very doable now which is great box office for a film without china

 

[idiot09]

Riiight.I am not gonna argue with a guy who still thinks SS is a disappointment financially and focuses on the minor negatives when there are such positives news to discuss.Yeah you are absolutely right,I am clinging on to false narratives,and I'm deluding myself.Feel free to keep going

Moving on ...

Even with very conservative estimates $350m+ overseas is a lock now.

Yep.After the second week I started doubting that it would reach $600M,so something near 650$M would be a win for DCEU,and would give them more encouragement to make better products because the market is there,they just need to deliver.Expecting to hear about a sequel/spinoff soon.

 

[Kathemy]

After the second week I started doubting that it would reach $600M,so something near 650$M would be a win for DCEU

I'm actually thinking somewhere around $675m. Some people over at BOT seem to believe $700m isn't out of the question.

 

[JKKS085]

Riiight.I am not gonna argue with a guy who still thinks SS is a disappointment financially

That's not even remotely what I said. But hey, why bother indeed ?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If we reduce the 6.8 million SS has grossed in Germany in it's fist weekend then the overseas total will be at 32.6 million, which is only a 44.7% drop from last weekend's 59 million. That is extremely good. t:

 

[Kathemy]

If we reduce the 6.8 million SS has grossed in Germany in it's fist weekend then the overseas total will be at 32.6 million, which is only a 44.7% drop from last weekend's 59 million. That is extremely good. t:

How do you figure? 38-6.8=31.2

Do you have another figure?

 

[idiot09]

That's not even remotely what I said. But hey, why bother indeed ?

So what have you said?That SS despite doing well in the BO,you keep coming and focusing on the negatives?Either you agree with me that SS has done well and that it has decent legs,or you disagree with me and you think its a disappointment and it hasnt.(because its neither a flop/nor a raging hit so its one of those two).Clarify now because I have no idea what you are trying to say.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

In the international market the last 4 weekdays total for SS was (271-243)=28 million.
I'm assuming a 50% drop so the next 4 weekdays SS should gross about 14 million.

The 3rd weekend without Germany is at 32.6 million and again assuming a 50% drop, the next weekend would be closer to 16 million.

Now I'm being really conservative here, 8 million from Japan in it's entire run there and 8 million more from Germany alone makes it 16 million.

The total now stands at 310.4+14+16+16=356 million. The actual numbers might not match my optimistic extrapolations but my estimates are without even considering the subsequent weeks so SS will eventually cross 350 million and do more.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

How do you figure? 38-6.8=31.2

Do you have another figure?

IIRC the international total was at 271 million after the 2nd Thursday and now the total stands at 310.4 million after the 3rd weekend so that's a difference of 39.4 million there and just subtracting the numbers from Germany, it will be at 32.6 million.

Edit: If the total was more than 272 million to begin with then I'm wrong.

 

[Predator jp]

I think it'll murder GotG in that market. At the very least I don't see it doing worse than BvS which did $16.5m.
Based on the opening weekend and the generally better legs of SS than BvS I think it'll do 19-20 million.

anything can happen for sure but i really don't see that happening.
i mean, even TDK did worse than BvS over here.

 

[JKKS085]

So what have you said?That SS despite doing well in the BO,you keep coming and focusing on the negatives?Either you agree with me that SS has done well and that it has decent legs,or you disagree with me and you think its a disappointment and it hasnt.(because its neither a flop/nor a raging hit so its one of those two).Clarify now because I have no idea what you are trying to say.

I disagree with you that it has decent legs for all the reasons mentioned in my previous messages. However because of its strong opening week end it IS doing well at the box office both internationally and domestically despite sharper than normal drops. I don't understand why it would have to be black or white ? There are nuances in the middle that apparently you just don't want to see.

Well in any case if you don't understand my stance on the film's performance now, you never will and it's not that you don't understand it it's that you don't agree with it and it's just fine.

There's no need for authoritarian attitudes. I don't have to agree or disagree with you on everything, I'm not with or against you. There's always a middle ground.

 

[Kathemy]

I think there is something that tends to get lost in these box office discussions.

The only thing that matters when it comes to the box office is how much money you make. You won't win any awards for "great legs" at the box office. All that matters is how these qualities translate to the bottom line. "Legs" and such are only useful for predicting the final result.

Hypothetically, if Spider-Man: Homecoming were to gross two billion dollars in the first weekend and then fail to sell another ticket, would that make it a failure? It would still have made two billion dollars.

Great marketing translates into huge opening weekends which then invariably translate into big drops and "weak legs." It's unfair to criticize movies for this in the manner I am seeing nowadays.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

It will get a sequel. I am sure we will find out a release date soon. Hopefully a lower budgeted sequel & they need to make sure the movie agreed upon in pre-production is the movie released.

Definitely, I have never been a person who blames studios and thinks they are Satan; but if you tell a director to make a certain kind of film and he delivers that don't slice it up into something different after the fact. Unless this is a marketing scheme by WB to release 2 versions of the CBMs one in theaters and one on DVD.

 

[Ozbridge]

Some people over at BOT seem to believe $700m isn't out of the question.

You mean James? He's usually very bold with his prediction and sometimes it becomes true (like SLOP and Tarzan) but I think 700M for SS is impossible.

In the international market the last 4 weekdays total for SS was (271-243)=28 million.
I'm assuming a 50% drop so the next 4 weekdays SS should gross about 14 million.

The 3rd weekend without Germany is at 32.6 million and again assuming a 50% drop, the next weekend would be closer to 16 million.

Now I'm being really conservative here, 8 million from Japan in it's entire run there and 8 million more from Germany alone makes it 16 million.

The total now stands at 310.4+14+16+16=356 million. The actual numbers might not match my optimistic extrapolations but my estimates are without even considering the subsequent weeks so SS will eventually cross 350 million and do more.

I think 50% drop OS next weekend is too optimistic (OS usually drop faster than DOM when there's no new territories) but SS can totally get over 350M.

 

[idiot09]

I disagree with you that it has decent legs

Okay.So SS doesnt have decent legs.Right.I disagree but whatever.

I think there is something that tends to get lost in these box office discussions.

The only thing that matters when it comes to the box office is how much money you make. You won't win any awards for "great legs" at the box office. All that matters is how these qualities translate to the bottom line. "Legs" and such are only useful for predicting the final result.

Hypothetically, if Spider-Man: Homecoming were to gross two billion dollars in the first weekend and then fail to sell another ticket, would that make it a failure? It would still have made two billion dollars.

Great marketing translates into huge opening weekends which then invariably translate into big drops and "weak legs." It's unfair to criticize movies for this in the manner I am seeing nowadays.

Agreed.

 

[MydnightPhoenix]

I think there is something that tends to get lost in these box office discussions.

The only thing that matters when it comes to the box office is how much money you make. You won't win any awards for "great legs" at the box office. All that matters is how these qualities translate to the bottom line. "Legs" and such are only useful for predicting the final result.

Hypothetically, if Spider-Man: Homecoming were to gross two billion dollars in the first weekend and then fail to sell another ticket, would that make it a failure? It would still have made two billion dollars.

Great marketing translates into huge opening weekends which then invariably translate into big drops and "weak legs." It's unfair to criticize movies for this in the manner I am seeing nowadays.

QFT great legs is just another made up way to bash movies. Its a predictor but legs are not if your movie is a hit its a hit bottom line.

I disagree with you that it has decent legs for all the reasons mentioned in my previous messages. .

LoL That's all I need to hear.

 

[Kathemy]

anything can happen for sure but i really don't see that happening.
i mean, even TDK did worse than BvS over here.

... and you're probably right, I'm not the Japanese here.

 

[Predator jp]

... and you're probably right, I'm not the Japanese here.

i hope i will be proven wrong though.

 

[brandeezy89]

It made 40M in the last 7 days. How can it also makes 38-43M in the next 7 days?

Sorry i was counting the week after this since Monday is around the corner