Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 2

[Kathemy]

Just saw the Friday figures for Don't Breathe and

I can easily see it making 22 million in it's OW. I hope it doesn't prove to be a roadblock for SS in the coming weeks.

SS is too far into the domestic run for it to really make a difference in my opinion, and the target audience isn't the same. This is evidenced by SS apparently having a great weekend now. It's just more people going to the theater.

Honestly? I may be crazy for saying it but we may very well be on route for $700m+.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

SS is too far into the domestic run for it to really make a difference in my opinion, and the target audience isn't the same. This is evidenced by SS apparently having a great weekend now. It's just more people going to the theater.

Honestly? I may be crazy for saying it but we may very well be on route for $700m+.

Assuming almost 60% drops in the overseas markets,
310+26.5+11+4.5+2=354 million without Germany and Japan.

Again just 8 million each from Germany and Japan in it's entire run from now on would bring the international total at 354+16=370 million.

Domestic total is at 271 million right now and with 11 million this weekend,
Total will be at 282 million.

My guess is that from now on the domestic grosses will be like 282+4+13+2+5+2+1=309 million.

675-680 million is where I think SS should finish at if things go smoothly.

 

[Victarion]

I'm trying to select 600 mil and the poll is closed wtf rotters.

 

[Mjölnir]

I'm trying to select 600 mil and the poll is closed wtf rotters.

You can only vote in the first incarnation of the thread. When the thread manager makes the "part x" versions the poll stops working.

 

[Marvin]

675-680 million is where I think SS should finish at if things go smoothly.

Well it just officially passed TWS without china, if your prediction held, that would put it up there with a china free GotG and alot of superhero solos, mcu or otherwise. Should be close but I have my doubts.
80mill more at this point might just be out of reach.

 

[Victarion]

¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Kathemy]

Well it just officially passed TWS without china, if your prediction held, that would put it up there with a china free GotG and alot of superhero solos, mcu or otherwise. Should be close but I have my doubts.
80mill more at this point might just be out of reach.

80 more million is pretty conservative. Depending on this weekend's hold overseas I think it's headed for a 690m-710m finish.

Ayer tweeted that the movie had passed $600m on Thursday (included updated overseas numbers.) It's already well past that by now with a $10m+ domestic weekend and further international box office.

 

[dc_mos]

Saturday - 5.4
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...55m-sp-22m-kubo-196m-wd-19m-pete-18m/?page=30

 

[Kathemy]

66% increase. Very, very strong. Weekend should total close to 12 million with Sunday matching Friday.

If this trend holds and Japan doesn't underperform $700m is not only doable but probable.

Reposting weekly totals from a2knet (BoT):

BVS SS
209.0 179.1
64.2 62.5
29.0 29.2
11.7 16.0 (estimate)

See, Suicide Squad has just as bad legs as Batman v Superman...

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Wow, I did not see that 66% increase coming, I thought it'll be a 55% increase from Friday but SS is exceeding my expectations big time. 11.8 million in the 4th weekend seems very likely and it's only a 43% drop from the previous weekend, SS is going pretty strong. t:t:

 

[Kathemy]

Hell, I'll try a weekend prediction. $12.02m

 

[dc_mos]

BoxOffice@BoxOffice
SUICIDE SQUAD makes an estimated $12.11M weekend, down 41.9%, for $282.88M through four weekends. #SuicideSquad

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/769910126459310080

 

[rashad]

That was an excellent drop for SS this weekend. It'll be around $294-296m after Labor Day weekend surpassing MOS's $291m total gross in the process.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

BoxOffice@BoxOffice
SUICIDE SQUAD makes an estimated $12.11M weekend, down 41.9%, for $282.88M through four weekends. #SuicideSquad

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/769910126459310080

Awesome news.

 

[Kathemy]

See, people think I am overly optimistic and I underestimated the weekend score.

 

[JKKS085]

BoxOffice@BoxOffice
SUICIDE SQUAD makes an estimated $12.11M weekend, down 41.9%, for $282.88M through four weekends. #SuicideSquad

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/769910126459310080

4th week end compared to other Top August openers (opening week end of $50M +):

- Suicide Squad $12.1M$ -41.9% (estimate)
- Guardians Of The Galaxy $17.2M -31.5%
- The Bourne Ultimatum $12.4M -37.2%
- Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes $8.8M -45 %
- GI Joe The Rise Of Cobra $7.7M -36.8%

4th week end in relation to opening week end (higher percentage shows better staying power):

- Suicide Squad 9.05% (estimate)
- Guardians Of The Galaxy 18.24%
- The Bourne Ultimatum 17.89%
- Rise of The Planet Of The Apes 16.24%
- GI Joe The Rise Of Cobra 14.08%

 

[kguillou]

Jeez, it makes you wonder if this baby had better reviews and had China what kind of numbers we'd be looking at.

But I digress, awesome news. WB would be idiotic not to greenlight a sequel asap.

 

[Predator jp]

If this trend holds and Japan doesn't underperform $700m is not only doable but probable.

hope it will outperform BvS and make more than $20m in Japan.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

That was an excellent drop for SS this weekend. It'll be around $294-296m after Labor Day weekend surpassing MOS's $291m total gross in the process.

I think it will be way more after labour weekend. The domestic total is at 282.9 million now and in the next 4 days I'm guessing SS rakes in at least 3.6 million and in the whole 5th weekend SS would gross somewhere around 13.5 million and at the end of the 32nd day, the domestic total would be at 282.9+3.6+13.5=300 million.

 

[dc_mos]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
#SuicideSquad intl gross climbs to sturdy $353.1M lifting global gross to $636M. Big $730M final possible w/ no China release.
https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/769926569498386432

 

[Blitzkrieg]

hope it will outperform BvS and make more than $20m in Japan.

I hope it does but I'll gladly take anything around 10-11 million. That would be 3 million more than my initial estimation. Anything over 10 million would be a good result for SS in Japan. t:

 

[Marvin]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
#SuicideSquad intl gross climbs to sturdy $353.1M lifting global gross to $636M. Big $730M final possible w/ no China release.
https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/769926569498386432

That's gotta be good news for WB. No china at that.

After that domestic opening, I've always been comparing it's (dom) performance to that of IM2. So far it looks like it's gonna be a close finish.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
#SuicideSquad intl gross climbs to sturdy $353.1M lifting global gross to $636M. Big $730M final possible w/ no China release.
https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/769926569498386432

This is from one of my previous posts in this page

Assuming almost 60% drops in the overseas markets,
310+26.5+11+4.5+2=354 million without Germany and Japan.

So I thought SS would gross 26.5 million this whole week in international markets without Germany and with Germany I would have guessed around 29 million and now I see it has made a whopping 42.7 million in 7 days. That's a drop of only 36.5%. t:t:

 

[rashad]

Domestic: $282,882,627 44.5%
+ Foreign: $353,100,000 55.5%
= Worldwide: $635,982,627
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=dc2016.htm

 

[Predator jp]

Anything over 10 million would be a good result for SS in Japan. t:

yep. and realistic one.