Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[Marvin]

Deathly Hallows is currently tracking at 145-150 opening weekend.

Anybody think it may beat out TDK's 158.4???

do you think this final potter has the pre-hype that was happening the week of TDK's opening? I personally don't think so...not in the states anyways.

I think it will open in the 140's though. it has no reason not too. it's audience is out of school, the competition is 2 weeks in at this point, it has the 3D boost...etc

the only film of recent memory that could have taken the 3day record from bats was TF2. Potter has a shot thought.

 

[BlackLantern]

if it does happen, I hope the TDK fans won't take it too hard

 

[Marvin]

Potter is a fan base driven franchise, that means campers and what not.
Why WB isn't opening this film over an extended weekend is a bad call to me.

TF is more a Genenral audience franchise (at this point) that should have been a camper free 3 day opening.

Potter will have an impressive 5 day none the less.

 

[Marvin]

if it does happen, I hope the TDK fans won't take it too hard

WB sure knows how to handle their franchis...well mostly.

ya batman fans, and nolan fans may have something to say about that.

 

[Fanticon]

maybe they can be optimistic knowing that TDKR will probably break any record potter breaks.

 

[Marvin]

maybe they can be optimistic knowing that TDKR will probably break any record potter breaks.

I still think it's fantastic that the bat thread gets into the 400 member activity whenever new news is posted.

 

[Fanticon]

and fake news

 

[chaseter]

do you think this final potter has the pre-hype that was happening the week of TDK's opening? I personally don't think so...not in the states anyways.

I think it will open in the 140's though. it has no reason not too. it's audience is out of school, the competition is 2 weeks in at this point, it has the 3D boost...etc

the only film of recent memory that could have taken the 3day record from bats was TF2. Potter has a shot thought.

Do I think it will happen? Probably not. Would I be surprised if it happened? Nope. It will be close. I would not be shocked if it went into the 150s. It's entirely possible.

 

[Marvin]

that'd be so dope though.
I love when a movie shakes up the stats.

 

[Marvin]

double

 

[chaseter]

Harry Potter is now the highest pre-sale ever. It has $32 million and counting for midnight showings.

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=79789

 

[jmc]

not if cap is the next iron man movie.
I'm no cap fan(yet), but this is the kinda thing I'm referring to. Fastest film to 1bill is hard enough as it is, but to do with whilst competing with solid weekly, non counter programed competition just seems like an oversight.

Cap may well be the best superhero movie ever made but I'm still not convinced it will do anything to put a halt to Potter, not after what I saw from the film which is in every way a perfect finale. It's gonna be big and it will crush everything in it's path.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Yeah, don't underestimate this finale. I'm sure it will make a huge bulk of its money this weekend, but it could continue on a bit stronger than its other films. But that remains to be seen.

 

[chaseter]

Potter will probably make around $150 million opening weekend. Even with a 60% drop it's second weekend, that's still around $60 million.

DH.1 had a 60% drop
HBP had a 62% drop
OOTP had a 58% drop

Cap has a tough fight ahead of him.

 

[jmc]

Even if this film doesn't attract the casual Potter fan I still think repeat viewings of this film by the fans are going to be higher than previous in the series. Won't surprise me if it challenges TDK opening weekend record.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

If anything I don't Cap has to worry as much as Cowboys vs. Aliens, especially if the former ends up being good and getting great WOM.

 

[chaseter]

But if Cap opens soft but does have some good WOM then the best we can hope for are numbers between First Class and Thor.

I really think next weekend is going to be pretty huge too. Cap has good early reviews and Potter is obviously huge. It's going to be a battle.

 

[jmc]

i haven't really been keeping track of Cap but have reviews started filtering out yet? Every time I check RT there's nothing there and I assumed some would have been posted by now.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Nope not yet, not until at least later this week.

 

[jmc]

This is kinda the situation that I always assumed would happen for Cap, you've got Potter generating all types of buzz and being critically acclaimed, how do you get people to take notice when all that's on their minds is Potter? Still baffles me why Marvel chose this release date.

 

[chaseter]

Early screenings of Cap are very positive but that is really only an indicator from the fanboy crowd.

 

[jmc]

Same was said about GL. We all know how that turned out.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

This is kinda the situation that I always assumed would happen for Cap, you've got Potter generating all types of buzz and being critically acclaimed, how do you get people to take notice when all that's on their minds is Potter? Still baffles me why Marvel chose this release date.

It wasn't Marvel. It was Paramount that did.

 

[jmc]

Well whoever it was why in the hell they would want to release it after Potter is beyond me, especially when it's the fourth superhero movie of the year.

 

[DACrowe]

Even if this film doesn't attract the casual Potter fan I still think repeat viewings of this film by the fans are going to be higher than previous in the series. Won't surprise me if it challenges TDK opening weekend record.

Even if it "only" makes $145 million, I doubt WB will be kicking themselves with the third highest opening of all time (Spider-Man 3 would still be second), when they know they're guaranteed a $1 billion WW film that will likely cross at least $350 million domestic and they still hold the record for the Highest Opening Weekend spot with The Dark Knight....until TDKR comes out next year.