Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[DarthAlani]

Potter will do over $1 billion over-seas alone

 

[jmc]

I've long been of the opinion if any movie was going to top the 3-day opening of The Dark Knight, it'd be either Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows - Part II or The Dark Knight Rises.

My prediction has been $162 million, but those $180 million projections aren't crazy when you factor in the 3D/IMAX bump, shorter length and the last minute bookings (and sell-outs!) for 3 AM screenings tonight. Last time we heard that happen was, you guessed it, The Dark Knight.

Also should be worth noting if Potter does do say $180 million, then it's highly likely (Sorry, Marvel fans!) it not only beats Captain America the following weekend (based on its glowing reviews and word-of-mouth) but also breaks the biggest second weekend gross. So...be prepared for that possibly go down.

I think it's a given at this stage. What's the record for second weekend gross?

 

[Liam_H]

I think it's a given at this stage. What's the record for second weekend gross?

At first I thought it was TDK but its Avatar but barely with $75.6 million. Even more impressive is that Avatar dropped only 2%, the very definition and power of WOM.

 

[jmc]

Hmm, if Potter opens to over $180 like some are predicting it'll be touch and go, but if WOM is strong, and I can't imagine it won't be from the film I saw, then it may very well break the second week record comfortably. This thing is gonna make an insane amount of money.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think Cap has a chance of doing a Sherlock Holmes. Being completely overshadowed by a box office beast (Avatar), but still making decent coin, in the US at least.

 

[Liam_H]

Hmm, if Potter opens to over $180 like some are predicting it'll be touch and go, but if WOM is strong, and I can't imagine it won't be from the film I saw, then it may very well break the second week record comfortably. This thing is gonna make an insane amount of money.

Maybe but even if it hits that benchmark of $180 million it has to drop less than 60%, which is really hard to do when a movie opens that big. But TDK barely dropped over 50% so its not impossible.

 

[Liam_H]

I think Cap has a chance of doing a Sherlock Holmes. Being completely overshadowed by a box office beast (Avatar), but still making decent coin, in the US at least.

Very true, if Cap makes $60-65 million but still comes in 2nd place to Potter that is still a success.

 

[jmc]

Maybe but even if it hits that benchmark of $180 million it has to drop less than 60%, which is really hard to do when a movie opens that big. But TDK barely dropped over 50% so its not impossible.

I think Potter fans are going to play a huge part in this, not only is the film fantastic and will get the casual viewer in but it's the finale and fans are going to see it a bunch times, and there are tens of millions of Potter fans that will do it. This is an event the likes of which only come along once every few years.

I think Cap has a chance of doing a Sherlock Holmes. Being completely overshadowed by a box office beast (Avatar), but still making decent coin, in the US at least.

That's going to depend entirely on how good the film is, anything less than really good and it's going to struggle, plus superhero fatigue could well and truly play it's part here too. I maintain that releasing Cap next week was the biggest screw up you could do in trying to launch a new franchise.

 

[Liam_H]

I think Potter fans are going to play a huge part in this, not only is the film fantastic and will get the casual viewer in but it's the finale and fans are going to see it a bunch times, and there are tens of millions of Potter fans that will do it. This is an event the likes of which only come along once every few years.

I slightly agree with you but that's what they said about Part 1 last November and that dropped fairly quickly. But obviously many factors are different here. This really is the last potter film...last half at least...and it plays to the more casual crowd. Part 1 was very hard to get into unless you were invested in the characters, while this film is fantastic on so many levels.

 

[jmc]

Oh it's a completely different scenario compared to last time, I don't think you even need to be completely invested in the series to enjoy film 8, even a passing knowledge of the previous movies will get you by.

 

[Liam_H]

Oh it's a completely different scenario compared to last time, I don't think you even need to be completely invested in the series to enjoy film 8, even a passing knowledge of the previous movies will get you by.

I know I read your review that you posted. The fact that your a very casual Potter fan and still gave it a 9/10 speaks volumes. I never really expected this movie to get the praise that it is getting.

 

[rashad]

Box Office Report: Final 'Harry Potter' Grosses a Record-Breaking $43.5 Million in Midnight Runs
11:47 AM 7/15/2011 by Pamela McClintock

The final pic in the franchise on track to score the biggest worldwide bow of all time

Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 cast a powerful spell at the midnight box office, grossing a massive $43.5 million, the best showing of all time.

The previous crown holder was The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which earned $30 million in midnight shows.

Deathly Hallows has already grossed north of $100 million at the worldwide box office, and the weekend is yet to come. The pic began rolling out internationally on Wednesday, earning $43.6 million from 26 countries. Numbers for Thursday weren’t immediately available.

At the domestic box office, Deathly Hallows 2 played in 3,800 midnight runs. Friday, the pic moves into a total of 4,300 theaters, including 3,000 3D runs.

The decision to release the final film in the Harry Potter franchise in 3D appears to be paying off.

Warners reports that all 3D midnight shows were sold out, bucking the recent downturn in 3D attendance.

IMAX theaters did record midnight business, generating north of $2 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-final-harry-211757

 

[chaseter]

So many people under estimated Potter on here. Well there ya go. I will be seeing this at least 1-2 more times...at least. I think a lot of people will also be doing that.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

yup. I might even see it again later today.

 

[DACrowe]

So many people under estimated Potter on here. Well there ya go. I will be seeing this at least 1-2 more times...at least. I think a lot of people will also be doing that.

I knew it'd be a $400+ domestic and $1 billion film....but I am surprised at how big this opening is going to be. I was thinking around $145 OW and it's going to blow way past that.

 

[danoyse]

One of my friends got to the theater an hour early for a 9am Harry Potter show this morning and there were already 200 people in line. This weekend is going to be insane.

 

[Marvin]

I hope it opens big, I've got a bet going.
I do however think this is one of the more front loaded audience franchises out. Every single fan in the world is tripping over themselves to see it this weekend and there probably won't be an empty seat in any screening for the first few days. But as history has showed us, once that initial group has run it's course(domestically) the GA just isn't sure about jumping into something as continuity heavy as a potter installment. What's the highest so far 300mill or so? Great but not quite batman numbers.

I hope it takes out the TDK opening record, this is one film where 3D screens don't actually loose customers. And it's got plenty...unlike batman did. Should be close.

 

[chaseter]

Yes but if it opens at 180 million, even a 60-70% drop is still around $60 million next weekend. That is still crazy amounts of money.

 

[SuperSpideyGirl]

I'm glad I got to the theater an hour early this morning because it filled up 15 minutes after I got there.

That midnight box office total is insane.

 

[Marvin]

Yes but if it opens at 180 million, even a 60-70% drop is still around $60 million next weekend. That is still crazy amounts of money.

for sure, i'm actually referring to later weeks.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

LOL I feel like the only person not going to see Potter. I hate Potter but all my friends are gonna see it 1-3 times.

 

[BlackLantern]

<---only saw Prisoner of Azkaban in theaters

 

[terry78]

Never really been a massive fan, I just saw the last few flicks to keep up with the storyline. They suckered my ass in.

 

[ALP]

Incredible. As long as it beats every record Twilight holds I will be happy. Over $40 Million just from midnight numbers? Wow.

 

[BlackLantern]

and then the Twilight fans will mobilize when the next movie comes out