Survivor: Samoa

[Marx]

The first post has been updated with the new tribe.

 

[Sawyer]

Seeing Erik get axed was awesome. Too bad Russell panicked though.

Too bad? I thought it was hilarious!

 

[CELTICPRED]

He's the only one I seem to cheer for.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I'm torn. I can't stand Laura's *****y bullying of Shambo (even if she is an idiot) or Monica's valley-girl act. On the other hand, Erik is a complete tool. Why sacrifice yourself like that at tribal? And didn't he say he had an immunity-idol? Why not play it? These people are morons. Brett has the right idea. Keep your head low, don't say anything stupid, don't make moronic back-deals with people that don't trust you in the first place and do all your work at the camp and the competitions. Nobody has bothered him so far, nobody hates him, and he'll probably be safe until it's down to a handful of contestants. On the other hand since he's uninteresting, he gets no TV time. So there's the trade-off.

 

[Marx]

I can't believe Russell's arrogance. He had to have known that going around to every single person in the merged tribe would come back to haunt him. And showing everyone the hidden immunity idol!?!?!

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Russell is not playing the game as well as he thinks. There's a time for building alliances and a time for laying low. Being merged with a tribe that's much bigger and unfamiliar and with no reason to trust you... that is NOT the time to go stumbling around flappin' your gums. Erik made the same mistake, which is why he's gone.

And I have no idea why he flashed his idol prematurely like that at council. Total panic move. Did he think he was going home? Maybe I'm misremembering, but can't you show the idol AFTER you get the votes, instead of having to do it before the votes are read?

Russell is not as smart as I gave him credit for. He's no Richard Hatch so far.

 

[LEX]

I don't recall anyone ever playing their idol after the votes were revealed. It's always been a gamble, to my knowledge.

Man, did that episode kick loads of butts or what? Easily the best one of the season. This is what I've been waiting for! Mass conniving and confusion! Truly, the crap hits the fan and the real fun starts after the merge. Maybe I should start watching Survivor after merges from now on, if only to spare myself the dullness of the episodes prior.

Russell himself even deigned to descend from the clouds and admitted that he hadn't the foggiest clue as to which way the votes were going. Watching the show, I was equally flummoxed! So many people were trying to convince the others and vice-versa that I just gave up trying, poorly, to keep track of just who the hell was on the chopping block.

I don't blame Russell at all for playing his idol, albeit for nothing. I would've done the same, as Erik should have. Panic move? Perhaps, but better safe than sorry, as Erik can attest to. Bad move? Everyone knew Russell had the idol, anyway, and keeping it is just begging for more distrust. Granted, Russell was an idiot to go about blabbing that he had the idol (to Monica, no less, right after he told Laura; and we all know how close those two are). The idol was quickly becoming a stigma and served a better use out of his hands than in them. It was inevitable that the idol be flushed, so I thought it wise to take the initiative and take his chances.

I couldn't care less for Erik. He was getting on everybody's nerves with his cockiness and I was glad to see Jaison handing Erik's ass to him on a plate with the "Frankly, the point is I don't care what you like" burn. Burrrn.

 

[Marx]

I was really surprised that Erik didn't play his idol.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Russell is not playing the game as well as he thinks. There's a time for building alliances and a time for laying low. Being merged with a tribe that's much bigger and unfamiliar and with no reason to trust you... that is NOT the time to go stumbling around flappin' your gums. Erik made the same mistake, which is why he's gone.

And I have no idea why he flashed his idol prematurely like that at council. Total panic move. Did he think he was going home? Maybe I'm misremembering, but can't you show the idol AFTER you get the votes, instead of having to do it before the votes are read?

Russell is not as smart as I gave him credit for. He's no Richard Hatch so far.

Only in the first season that the idol was introduced could you play it after the votes were counted could you use it. In that first season, I think Yul had the idol and it got him to the end because everyone knew he had it, so everyone knew voting for him was useless since it wouldn't count. I think it works a lot better this way and really ups the potential for great blind sides.

Russell isn't as smart as he tells the camera he is, because he's trying to make too many deals with single players. You need groups, not individuals, he now has a default group with Foa Foa, which he needs to silently bring Shambo into since he's on the outs, bring her in and it's 6-5 Galu vs. Foa Foa, find a way to trick them into voting out another member it's 5-5, from there try to get you're best firestarter in a tie, 5-4 and you start picking them off.

Also loved whoever said going down the line picking off each Foa Foa was minor league Survivor, are you crazy, that's the obvious way to play, turning on each other is a surefire way to screw things up and make you lose. Take off the head of the snake, Russell next week, then Shambo since she's a wild card, then go down the line of Foa Foas, THEN go after yourselves.

 

[Ipodman]

Russell (TO ME) is the most arrogant, stupidest, person on this season...

 

[Trigger]

I was genuinely shocked by the vote. I was under the impression that Erik was being a jerk for the specific purpose of surprising everyone with his idol. From the timing of it I kinda wonder if Erik didn't play his idol because he saw Russell play his idol? Either way this was clearly the best episode of the season.

Also, I think by now we've all come to realize that Russell chats the camera up for the sake of appearing in charge. Heck, it probably calms him down, but he obviously doesn't have a concise plan. Still, my bets are that Russell isn't the next to go. He's a surprisingly good competitor and knowing that you're on the chopping block can improve a person's performance.

 

[Ipodman]

Yea... i pity the camera-interviewer guy who has to put up with his im-gonna-trick-everyone! talk

 

[SuperT]

I can guarantee the Foa Foa's won't be picked off one after the other.

See, that's the disadvantage to be being on the tribe that wins all the immunity challenges pre-merge, you get stuck with the same people for days and days and you don't get to vote anyone out, so once the merge hits you're ready to turn on each other asap.

The Foa Foa's have this thing in the bag.

 

[Wyrminarrd]

I think that the Galu men need to be careful and not agree to a plan that involves voting out the Foa Foa men one after the other since that will leave the women with the numbers. Considering what we've seen of Laura, Monica and Kelly? (can't remember her name for sure) they are likely to want to form a woman alliance.

 

[SuperT]

They wouldn't have any numbers, that's only three girls at best they could get four if they try to swing Natalie to join them, but I doubt she would, and of course Shambo won't be joining them anytime soon.

At this point, unless the Galu tribe comes together as one, the Foa Foa's have the power right now.

The previews are of course misleading, I don't think Russell is going anywhere, he probably wins immunity. I can see John/Shambo wanting to join up with the Foa Foa's this round and booting one of Monica/Laura/Kelly, probably Laura since she's the "leader".

I can see this merge swinging back and forth like the Pearl Islands/Micronesia did.

 

[Wyrminarrd]

I think that Natalie would join with Laura in a heart beat rather then trusting the guys (the whole "who can I beat at challenges" angle would play a big part).

This would cause a four/four split assuming that Shambo follows the guys but seeing as how the men are more or less ignoring her at this point it seems unlikely that they would defend her should Laura ask that Shambo be voted out before Natalie.

 

[SuperT]

Natalie would be dumb to join Laura - Laura has no power at this point and why would she voluntarily join Laura and her coven essentially settling for fourth place, cause you know Kelly/Monica/Laura have to have already promised each other final three at some point.

Natalie is better off sticking with her Foa Foa tribemates. She has a better shot at F3 in that situation since I think she'll make it to final three no matter who wins the last immunity challenge.

I'm sure Mick, Russell, and Jaison all think they could beat her against the jury - which may be their downfall. I've been saying it all along, but Natalie is much more sly player then the editing is giving her credit for.

 

[Wyrminarrd]

I was saying she would join Laura if all the men from Foa Foa had been sent home, she is of course better off if the old Foa Foa can somehow swing things their way.

If she joins with Laura at that point then she is in a good position to get to the final four and then at least she can always try to win the immunity idol against three other women.

The men of Galu need to realize this and at the very least send Natalie home before Mick and thus prevent a Laura/Monica/Kelly/Natalie alliance forming against them and Shambo.

 

[SuperT]

Well yea, I definitely agree that if all the Foa Foa men are voted out, she should definitely join up with the Galu ladies, but I just don't see that happening anytime soon with the way the Galu's are playing right now.

 

[Ipodman]

Is the finale gonna be like "live from hollywood" again?

 

[CELTICPRED]

It always is.

 

[Ipodman]

Oh... in that case nobody knows who the winner is...

 

[SuperT]

Of course there are people that know who the winner is. Jeff, Mark Burnett, and some of the production crew know. I'm sure the team that edits the show knows who wins since they try to edit around the winner.

I'm sure the people that made the F3/F2 and the jury probably have a good idea who won. I know JT from last season said that he knew he won, and that Amanda knew she lost in China and Micronesia because the players talk to each other after the game is over.

 

[Marx]

I will be shocked if Russell actually gets voted out tonight.

 

[Ipodman]

I wish he gets voted out today.... i hate him!