The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 2

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I was referring to the worldwide box office.

_____

Domestic:

The Last Jedi: $619,795,617
Black Panther: $605,400,528

.

Opps sorry

 

[Winterfell]

Ultron didn't make nearly as much money domestically as Avengers 1 , did people consider it a failure?

All BP2 has to do is print money. 500m dom is a excellent number. If the film's quality improves significantly over the first, it may do ever better than that.

 

[Raiden]

I think we should at least wait until production starts before making realistic predictions, but I just can’t imagine Black Panther making 50% less than the first. Especially since this one critically acclaimed, and is chaving incredible legs at the moment. I will say the characters are what made BP a huge success and I believe most audiences would love to see them again.

btw: Black Panther is highest grossing film in history in South Africa!

Yeah, Coogler made BP successful because of the way he wrote those characters, instead of relying on action scenes to sell the movie. I think GA like me are enthralled with Wakanda and its people and would love to revisit the place again, but at the deeper level than what IW and possibly A4 will offer.

 

[MaddScience]

Ultron didn't make nearly as much money domestically as Avengers 1 , did people consider it a failure?

All BP2 has to do is print money. 500m dom is a excellent number. If the film's quality improves significantly over the first, it may do ever better than that.

some people do. it started out making more than the Avengers, it was a clear disappointment. another would be BvS. those movies had more people rushing out day 1, and then word of mouth clipped them. I believe if AoU was a better movie than the first and as well liked it would have went near $2B. if IW is as well reviewed it will hit $2B imo.

 

[Iceman]

Ultron didn't make nearly as much money domestically as Avengers 1 , did people consider it a failure?

Failure is the wrong word. If Usain Bolt runs 100m in 10 seconds flat that is still obviously fast, but it can be considered disappointing. AoU made less than it could have as it wasn't received as well as many other top MCU films. It might not have reached Avengers 1 domestic even it was received equally well, but it would have made more than it did and closed the gap somewhat ($50m more maybe?).

 

[mustapantteri]

Ultron is an underperformance, nowhere on Earth a 1.4B gross movie is considered a failure. The explanation is simple. Subpar critical reception aside, the movie offers nothing new and is basically a retread of TA's storyline with a less interesting villain.

 

[mustapantteri]

I don't think BP has any chance left to surpass TLJ worldwide. That was once a possibility if it were a breakout in China, but it wasn't, so...

 

[Iceman]

I don't think BP has any chance left to surpass TLJ worldwide. That was once a possibility if it were a breakout in China, but it wasn't, so...

It's really the U.S. now that is still motoring. The overseas markets outside of China have made most of their money and China, dropped a nice amount of cash and then promptly disappeared as it often does. t:

 

[mustapantteri]

It's really the U.S. now that is still motoring. The overseas markets outside of China have made most of their money and China, dropped a nice amount of cash and then promptly disappeared as it often does. t:

I think the ultimate target now is to pass TA's adjusted domestic gross ($705M). It's extremely difficult but a man can dream.

 

[Iceman]

Ultron is an underperformance, nowhere on Earth a 1.4B gross movie is considered a failure. The explanation is simple. Subpar critical reception aside, the movie offers nothing new and is basically a retread of TA's storyline with a less interesting villain.

Yeah, I think some get confused with the difference. AoU and TLJ are both examples of films which were always going to be a success, and did well. Neither of those have any bearing though on whether they overperformed/underperformed met expectations.

A company's stock price goes down immediately if it announces amazing quarterly results which are a bit below expectation, and goes up if it announces huge losses which are a bit less than expected. Performance against expectation is what is important in corporate analysis rather than outright success/failure which is already priced in, and in term of general box office discussion on forums for films like this, largely already known ahead of time.

We all know Infinity War has no chance of not being a success relative to the average blockbuster because of the groundwork already done. The number it does is going to be high in those terms, but that doesn't mean it can't be subject to analysis. I think this would be clearer to many here if these films were made by a company like Marvel Studios if they weren't part of a massive company like Disney as we would then see the stock price move accordingly with the above just from box office reports (in other words people seeing it fall after a decent performance but one less than expected). Disney is too large to notice the effects clearly as there is plenty going on in other divisions that could outweigh or contribute to the move on any particular day.

 

[Iceman]

I think the ultimate target now is to pass TA's adjusted domestic gross ($705M). It's extremely difficult but a man can dream.

After no.3 domestic all time (Titanic), if I was going to dream I'd care more about the $700m barrier itself rather than trying to match an adjusted target as the exact adjusted figure is just down to specifics of adjustment methodology used, not really a clean target in my eyes. And I'm much more of a sucker for those round number targets which will never move rather than rankings which will be lost in time.

 

[MaddScience]

I don't think BP has any chance left to surpass TLJ worldwide. That was once a possibility if it were a breakout in China, but it wasn't, so...

it definitely does have a chance still. for one thing, it's gonna make 2.3x - 2.5x what TLJ made in China. it's going to pass it's domestic total by $35M at least. all it needs is more time in other markets. people seem to forget, TLJ came out 4 months ago and is still playing right now in hundreds of theaters. BP will be in theaters until May. BP is at 1.18B and TLJ is at 1.33B (if we account for the trickle it's still taking in). this is not a huge gap for a movie that is still making in the tens of millions every weekend. we're talking about a movie that has been out a month and is outpacing TLJ anyway, having more legs than TLJ did over it's nearly 3 month wide release run.

 

[KevTravels]

Yeah, Coogler made BP successful because of the way he wrote those characters, instead of relying on action scenes to sell the movie. I think GA like me are enthralled with Wakanda and its people and would love to revisit the place again, but at the deeper level than what IW and possibly A4 will offer.

^Exactly. It was the drama that attracted me. The characters and just the theme of family. Worth more than even the best action sequences.

I'm sure the sequel will add in even more action so we're quite lucky with this 1 being so intently drama-based.

 

[KevTravels]

The only question I have would be, what if Black Panther was released in say July. What if it had Ant-Man's release date.

A nice point to discuss. Would it have had 2 weeks at no.1 or would it still have clobbered a lot of films for over a month?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Yeah, Coogler made BP successful because of the way he wrote those characters, instead of relying on action scenes to sell the movie. I think GA like me are enthralled with Wakanda and its people and would love to revisit the place again, but at the deeper level than what IW and possibly A4 will offer.

This is where I'm at with the movie was well. And I think the reason it has staying power is because of it's more attention to character development than anything else. Don't get me wrong I love my action packed movies but I tend to come out the theater not remembering a lot that went on in those type of movies. Kinda reminds me of TDK and why it has staying power a decade later. It wasn't this big spectacle but it had amazing characters and brought the drama.


For that reason alone I think it will be remembered more than most MCU films years from now.

 

[Iceman]

This is where I'm at with the movie was well. And I think the reason it has staying power is because of it's more attention to character development than anything else. Don't get me wrong I love my action packed movies but I tend to come out the theater not remembering a lot that went on in those type of movies. Kinda reminds me of TDK and why it has staying power a decade later. It wasn't this big spectacle but it had amazing characters and brought the drama.


For that reason alone I think it will be remembered more than most MCU films years from now.

Would be great if you could combine that. TDK is unique in that I fast forward through the action to get to all the great dialogue parts as opposed to usual with many CBMs where I fast forward through everything else to get to the action parts.

 

[iEquinox]

So actuals are in and it made $26,650,690(34.7%) domestic this weekend. Slightly lower than estimated but obviously still a great hold.

OS, it made a little more than estimated, with $31,309,591 for the weekend. Just over $12M of that is from China. Should end up with an OS total somewhere around the $625M mark, which means it still has a very realistic shot at passing $1.3B WW as well.

Exact totals after Sunday:

Domestic: $605,027,218
+ Foreign: $580,126,580
= Worldwide: $1,185,153,798

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017b.htm

 

[coreymb16]

So actuals are in and it made $26,650,690(34.7%) domestic this weekend. Slightly lower than estimated but obviously still a great hold.

OS, it made a little more than estimated, with $31,309,591 for the weekend. Just over $12M of that is from China. Should end up with an OS total somewhere around the $625M mark, which means it still has a very realistic shot at passing $1.3B WW as well.

Exact totals after Sunday:

Domestic: $605,027,218
+ Foreign: $580,126,580
= Worldwide: $1,185,153,798

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017b.htm

That’s is up $3M from overseas estimates.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Aloha,
The records so far

Without adjusting for inflation, overseas expansion or exchange rates, Black Panther’s $1.182.5 billion global total makes it the 14th highest-grossing movie ever. And it’s clearly not finished, with perhaps another $100m or so left in the tank (it made $57m worldwide just this past weekend). At a glance, it should pass Iron Man 3 ($1.215b) to become the biggest solo superhero movie of all time and Universal/Comcast Corp.'s Fate of the Furious ($1.236b sans 3D) to become the biggest movie directed by a black filmmaker.

This milestone understandably got a lot of play over the weekend. By topping the charts in its fifth weekend, it became the first movie to do so since Avatar eight years ago. Heck, it’s only the fourth movie to pull this off in 20 years, alongside Paramount/Viacom Inc.'s Titanic in 1997/1998, Disney's The Sixth Sense In 1999 and 20th Century Fox's Avatar in 2009/2010. Among the defeated are Paramount's Annihilation, Fox's Red Sparrow, Disney's own A Wrinkle in Time and MGM and WB's Tomb Raider. Barring an upset, Universal's Pacific Rim: Uprising should open well enough to arbitrarily take the top spot in weekend six, thus become the Lost in Space of this generation

What’s next?

Well, it’s going to cross $1.2 billion worldwide in the next few days, as well as probably limping to $100 million in China before it exists Chinese theaters (which is fine for a superhero flick in China). It will soon pass Iron Man 3’s worldwide gross to become the biggest solo superhero flick of all time, and it’ll pass The Avengers’ $623m domestic gross to be the biggest superhero movie ever in unadjusted domestic grosses. Oh, and it’ll be leggier than The Avengers by today with a week or so left before it’s leggier than Ant-Man.


Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[samsnee]

I think they should keep a February release date for the sequel. Ties in well with Black History Month in the US and the competition is minimal so it gives it longer time in theaters like now.

 

[Hotwire]

Avengers will fall to Black Panther.

 

[kedrell]

It only needs a 2.04X multiplier off this last weekend's total to surpass Titanic's DOM total and nab that #3 spot. Piece o' cake, IMO. 3 more weekends should see it done, if not earlier.

 

[KevTravels]

I think they should keep a February release date for the sequel. Ties in well with Black History Month in the US and the competition is minimal so it gives it longer time in theaters like now.

Great idea, but I think BP has shown enough that its sequel should be the spectacle of the year. So I expect its sequel to be out May 2021

 

[Fallen]

I think they should keep a February release date for the sequel. Ties in well with Black History Month in the US and the competition is minimal so it gives it longer time in theaters like now.

I agree.

The release date was changed twice thanks to Ant-Man and the Wasp & Spider-Man: Homecoming, everything lined up perfectly for Black Panther .

 

[iEquinox]

It only needs a 2.04X multiplier off this last weekend's total to surpass Titanic's DOM total and nab that #3 spot. Piece o' cake, IMO. 3 more weekends should see it done, if not earlier.

3.04x actually, but yeah, it should definitely get that. The lowest 5th weekend multiplier in the MCU is 3.11x, would be very surprising if Black Panther went lower than that.