Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[flickchick85]

I stand by everything I said. Captain America and Thor cant be successful unless they are making the company more money not breaking even. At least X-Men: Apocalypse made a profit.

You seem to be moving the benchmark for Marvel fillms but scoff at X-Men movies. Hopefully people can keep an open mind until both CM and DP have something to judge marketing wise and not right things off. Didn't Logan have very low expectations before the trailer dropped. Not saying either film will be as good as that but to try to rewrite history that Marvel has only made hits and Fox can't make "successful" films is deluding yourself.

I never said ANYTHING about Fox not being able to make successful films. You just made that up. This discussion started because you found it "hypocritical" to have faith in Captain Marvel's prospects while not having it in Dark Phoenix, and again, it simply all comes back to track records: Marvel has a winning one, regardless of how you try and twist it. Fox's track record is FAR less stable. Certainly not stable enough for me to have good vibes about about a production they've delayed after it's been in the can for months. Nothing delusional about that.

No official word on the CM trailer, but most seem to be expecting it some time next month.

 

[MbJ]

I don't know, maybe.

Black Panther was gonna be a hit regardless, but I don't think it was a coincidence that Marvel made sure to heavily feature BP and his supporting cast in the trailers for Infinity War. Again, BP was always gonna be big, but I think letting people know it was gonna have direct ties to Infinity War did help bring even more people in. If they play their cards right they could end up with similar carryover for Captain Marvel.

In hindsight, I think Ant-Man and the Wasp would've benefitted greatly if Marvel had been able to let audiences know he was gonna play a big part in Avengers 4.

It's going to have aliens at war with each other, space battles, superheros etc... what more do you want?

I think that's precisely why people are measuring their expectations a bit. Nothing you mentioned is particularly new or earth shattering in the realm of superhero films.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I stand by everything I said. Captain America and Thor cant be successful unless they are making the company more money not breaking even. At least X-Men: Apocalypse made a profit.

You seem to be moving the benchmark for Marvel fillms but scoff at X-Men movies. Hopefully people can keep an open mind until both CM and DP have something to judge marketing wise and not right things off. Didn't Logan have very low expectations before the trailer dropped. Not saying either film will be as good as that but to try to rewrite history that Marvel has only made hits and Fox can't make "successful" films is deluding yourself.

But moving on again has anyone heard anything about a trailer releasing for CM?

Hey, instead of making your argument about Dark Phoenix and THEN saying move on, why don't you actually move on? You're trying to continue the discussion you want to have while making it appear like you're following flickchick's instruction. But I see through it. So I will be more direct: MOVE ON

 

[Abudefduf]

Maybe people should be hyped for things they don't even know about yet, like an instinctive feeling in the pit of their stomach. t:

I mean, it's kind of weird to expect people to be excited about a movie they don't even know is coming out, but what do I know.

If they play their cards right they could end up with similar carryover for Captain Marvel.

Mmm, that's true. I hadn't thought of that. We'll see.

 

[Iceman]

Black Panther was gonna be a hit regardless, but I don't think it was a coincidence that Marvel made sure to heavily feature BP and his supporting cast in the trailers for Infinity War. Again, BP was always gonna be big, but I think letting people know it was gonna have direct ties to Infinity War did help bring even more people in. If they play their cards right they could end up with similar carryover for Captain Marvel.

In hindsight, I think Ant-Man and the Wasp would've benefitted greatly if Marvel had been able to let audiences know he was gonna play a big part in Avengers 4.

Yeah I agree with that. I'm sure AM&W would have done a bit better with more crossover promotion with such a big event.

 

[BaronZemo]

A&W is doing quite fine on it's own and it's a stand-alone movie that was never meant/planned to crossover. It didn't need crossover promotion.

It was it's own adventure like a limited series or an one-shot and that is absolutely fine.

 

[HammerDown]

I went for the "700M +".
Captain Marvel has a few good things going for it. Female superhero, the Marvel brand and name recognition, the connections to IW, Nick Fury, Ronan/Guardians lore... and it will lead right into A4 which should give it a nice boost too.

It could surpass 800M.

 

[flickchick85]

I selected $600m+, but that was a long time ago. If I were to vote now, I would also probably say $700m+ with a chance to cross $800m. BUT I do fear if A4 is indeed moving up its release date to April, just over a month after CM, it might cut off CM's legs a little.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I selected $600m+, but that was a long time ago. If I were to vote now, I would also probably say $700m+ witch a chance to cross $800m. BUT I do fear if A4 is indeed moving up its release date to April, just over a month after CM, it might cut off CM's legs a little.

I voted similarly to you and have the same concerns about CM's legs. I think CM might be fine if A4 moves up a week into the last weekend of April but would be worried if it moved up any closer than that.

 

[Iceman]

If the trailer lives up to those set pics I can see over $800m with over $300m dom and $500m overseas. Overseas might even be a fair bit higher if it does well in China given how well AM&W has just done there.

 

[Fallen]

If the trailer lives up to those set pics I can see over $800m with over $300m dom and $500m overseas. Overseas might even be a fair bit higher if it does well in China given how well AM&W has just done there.

Captain Marvel Chinese trailer:

"From the studio that brought you ANT-MAN and ANT-MAN AND THE WASP"

 

[Iceman]

Captain Marvel Chinese trailer:

"From the studio that brought you ANT-MAN and ANT-MAN AND THE WASP"

Captain Marvel renamed Ant Man 3 in China

 

[AvengerPA]

I'm afraid that people were offended by Carol punching the old lady in the trailer, and they will be put off from this film.

 

[harlequinade]

I'm afraid that people were offended by Carol punching the old lady in the trailer, and they will be put off from this film.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm afraid that people were offended by Carol punching the old lady in the trailer, and they will be put off from this film.

Maybe the people who have no idea who the Skrulls are. I tend to think her punching the old lady will make people a bit more curious about the film than turn them off from it.

 

[writer0327]

I've been arguing with a friend on this and I think $800M is almost a cert, and $1B is certainly within reach. Obviously most of this depends on the film actually being any good. A couple of thoughts.

1. Perfect placement right before A4 with the worldwide audience going crazy with no MCU material since AM&W in July. That's a 8 month layoff. Domestically, a Super Bowl ad is certain to drop and boost up the hype. Opening weekend will be huge.

2. First female led Marvel solo film will give it a stronger buzz and will be used heavily in the adverts. I don't believe this does WW numbers domestically. But I do think it will outdo WW internationally.

3. Marvel was brilliant using the post-credit scene with Fury paging CM. That almost assured everyone who gives a rip about A4 will check CM out, to find out who she is, what her abilities are, how she will related to the Thanos storyline, and why Nick felt she would be the one to call upon.

OW: 180M
DOM: $330M
WW: $850M

 

[flickchick85]

I think globally it will be Marvel's 2nd-highest solo origin behind Black Panther, but not as high as $850mil. BP was a phenom that changed a lot of people's expectations I think, but if you look back at the other solo Marvel flicks, currently their #2 solo origin (worldwide) is Doctor Strange with $677mil. THAT's the more realistic target, imo, and I think CM will hit somewhere between $700-800mil. Domestically I think it could come close to Homecoming numbers, which again would be fantastic for an origin movie (as it would again eclipse their current domestic #2 solo origin, Iron Man).

 

[writer0327]

I think a lot of this box office will depend on how well Marvel handles the marketing in the next 2-3 months. It's going to do $600M I think without breaking a sweat, but if they market it correctly it can blow up.

 

[Abudefduf]

My pre-trailer prediction is 600-650 million.

Well, now that I've watched the trailer (a trailer that wasn't even particularly good, imo) break records and amass over one millions likes in the span of a few days, I'd say $700 million is definitely within reach. Unless the movie sucks, that is.

 

[JB33]

I've been arguing with a friend on this and I think $800M is almost a cert, and $1B is certainly within reach. Obviously most of this depends on the film actually being any good. A couple of thoughts.

1. Perfect placement right before A4 with the worldwide audience going crazy with no MCU material since AM&W in July. That's a 8 month layoff. Domestically, a Super Bowl ad is certain to drop and boost up the hype. Opening weekend will be huge.

2. First female led Marvel solo film will give it a stronger buzz and will be used heavily in the adverts. I don't believe this does WW numbers domestically. But I do think it will outdo WW internationally.

3. Marvel was brilliant using the post-credit scene with Fury paging CM. That almost assured everyone who gives a rip about A4 will check CM out, to find out who she is, what her abilities are, how she will related to the Thanos storyline, and why Nick felt she would be the one to call upon.

OW: 180M
DOM: $330M
WW: $850M

Oof, that would be a brutal multiplier from your $180M opening weekend number. Would be worse than BATMAN VS SUPERMAN. I think your numbers are otherwise realistic. The opening weekend just wouldn't be nearly that big. Maybe $130M to $140M.

 

[HKpowerup]

Very tough to say at this point, but final BO gross should sit somewhere between 800m to 1b. Should be between 150-200m domestic opening weekend. It will very much depend if the next trailer(s) will have the "wow" factor as this is another character that will be brand new to the general movie-going audience, and not anywhere near as well known as Wonder Woman.

 

[Iceman]

I selected $600m+, but that was a long time ago. If I were to vote now, I would also probably say $700m+ with a chance to cross $800m. BUT I do fear if A4 is indeed moving up its release date to April, just over a month after CM, it might cut off CM's legs a little.

It might boost its later legs (the legs from the release date of A4 onwards), while giving a big boost to the week or 2 directly before A4. Also there may be peeople who want to do double headers once the dust has settled, depending how awesome CM is in A4.

 

[Silver Surfer]

CM is the second most anticipated movie of the year, perhaps it does have a shot at cracking a billion.

 

[writer0327]

CM is the second most anticipated movie of the year, perhaps it does have a shot at cracking a billion.

Especially if it's over SW IX. I think we can safely say it should be expected to hit the mark.

 

[flickchick85]

Just for fun, here were Fandango's top 10 most anticipated movies of 2018, and their box office grosses:

1.) Avengers: Infinity War - $678 mil domestic; $2.05bil WW
2.) Black Panther - $700 mil domestic; $1.35bil WW
3.) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $416mil domestic; $1.3bil WW
4.) Deadpool 2 - $318mil domestic; $741mil WW
5.) Solo: A Star Wars Story - $213mil domestic; $393mil WW
6.) Incredibles 2 - $608mil domestic; $1.24bil WW
7.) Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald - $157mil domestic; $629mil WW
8.) A Wrinkle in Time - $100mil domestic; $121mil WW
9.) X-Men: Dark Phoenix - haha
10.) Ocean's 8 - $139mil; $296mil WW

As Solo and A Wrinkle in Time demonstrate, being on this list doesn't mean a movie won't fail. But of course those movies were quite disappointing on the quality front as well. If CM hits the mark on the quality front, I think it'll do great. Not necessarily billion dollar great, but at least somewhere in between Deadpool 2 and Jurassic World: FK in those grosses.