Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[JtheDreamer]

Yeah this shouldn't be compared to BP at all. That movie had so much going for it on a cultural level not to mention the amount of buzz/hype that the Kendrick Lamar soundtrack added to it. Again this should be compared to other Marvel solo origin films like Doctor Strange or GOTG and like those movies I can easily see this hitting $700-$800M WW with a domestic gross well over $300M. I don't even think $1B is that hard for this movie either if it ends up really connecting with general audiences.

China eats the space operas up. GOTG is the floor. Got a sneaky suspicion is cracks a billion.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

CM was the #2 most anticipated after Avengers: Endgame in Atom Tickets and Fandango's surveys (history - being ranked in the Top 3 has a decent track record of staying on the final actual Top 10 list), and topped IMDb. First Marvel entries generally burn longer than sequels though obviously this is affected by the calendar. March is the month of Spring Break.

As for pre-sales go, Solo beat Black Panther domestically in the first 24 hours, but ended up opening far worse. To be fair, Marvel isn't anywhere as frontloaded as Star Wars is in general.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

China eats the space operas up. GOTG is the floor. Got a sneaky suspicion is cracks a billion.

Unless its Star Wars right lol. In all seriousness I definitely think this movie has a chance at cracking $1B. I was just being somewhat conservative, but I agree that GOTG WW numbers are a solid base for it even if it ends up being closer to something like Doctor Strange.

 

[Binary10]

Yeah this shouldn't be compared to BP at all. That movie had so much going for it on a cultural level not to mention the amount of buzz/hype that the Kendrick Lamar soundtrack added to it. Again this should be compared to other Marvel solo origin films like Doctor Strange or GOTG and like those movies I can easily see this hitting $700-$800M WW with a domestic gross well over $300M. I don't even think $1B is that hard for this movie either if it ends up really connecting with general audiences.

I agree

 

[Zyraquis]

I am not sure how keen China is about a female hero lead. WW didn’t do big money there while fish boy broke records left and right. Venom also easily drew crowds. I think it will do a Marvel general level like 100m plus that’s it. Dom could be 200m with change and non China WW add another 300m plus for 600m-700m grand total. It’s not a well known hero like WW nor it had any presence before in MCU so it will need an IT factor to break out and I’m afraid I don’t see or feel it yet, methink.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

China is a country with nearly no female leadership at all and their one-child policy policy resulted in girls being aborted in favor of sons who earn money for the family and resulted in a sex imbalance in their population.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I'm starting to think in the 800M range

 

[Limonade]

I am not sure how keen China is about a female hero lead. WW didn’t do big money there while fish boy broke records left and right. Venom also easily drew crowds. I think it will do a Marvel general level like 100m plus that’s it. Dom could be 200m with change and non China WW add another 300m plus for 600m-700m grand total. It’s not a well known hero like WW nor it had any presence before in MCU so it will need an IT factor to break out and I’m afraid I don’t see or feel it yet, methink.

Yeah. The only thing going for this movie, aside from her powerset and story, is that it may give China's Marvel fans clues as to adding more speculation to the Avengers in Endgame... but how much of that will be in play is a question very much on the mind of us here as well.

Black Panther didn't really blow out a lot of expectations in China... I'm assuming it'll do less there... the other countries will definitely have to do the heavy lifting.

 

[Kuwolski]

It's currently the #2 most anticipated movie in China after Endgame, so that right there is promising considering what it's meant in the past. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it surged past BP in China. Seems to be trending pretty well in NA as well. The rest of the world is anyone's guess. I'd say 700 m is more then realistic if people dig it.

The hype is there, it's just a matter of if the film squanders it. I believe we'll be getting the long range tracking over the next week.

 

[Chesterfield]

Any film can do better than BP in China quite easily given their openly racist disposition towards black people.

As for Captain Marvel's NO many of you are going to be surprised at how well it's going to do.

 

[Zyraquis]

Black Panther fell into the same 100m-120m range as most MCU movies in China in recent years (Guardian 2 did a bit less). It didn’t break out nor did it do particularly bad. Apparently a lot of movies didn’t find it that easy to beat BP among which Jumanji and Incredible 2 which managed to earn an obscene amount of money elsewhere. BP ranked 23 overall in that market in 2018 according to box office mojo. The story didn’t resonate with the local crowd and the actions and VFX are ho hum which me think hurt more than having a black cast in that market. Still, it didn’t tank. It did a MCU solo hero number. Though one can believe in whatever fits his rhetoric.

Captain Marvel will gain from the same MCU halo effect but the track record of female hero leading films like Wonder Woman, Tomb Raider and especially Hunting Games there isn’t so encouraging. Of course no one is stopping it from breaking out from the non team up MCU BO in China though it is not easy to see ATM.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[ADollarADay]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-captain-marvel/

First long term prediction from BO.com

160MM OW, 465MM LTD.

 

[Iceman]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-captain-marvel/

First long term prediction from BO.com

160MM OW, 465MM LTD.

Well those would be awesome numbers!

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Those numbers would be spectacular if they ended up being anywhere close to accurate.

 

[flickchick85]

IF it got those numbers - and that's still a huge "if" - that would likely put it in the $900mil-$1bil range worldwide.

 

[ADollarADay]

IF it got those numbers - and that's still a huge "if" - that would likely put it in the $900mil-$1bil range worldwide.

If it got those numbers, 1B would be almost certain. Post Avengers, only Black Panther got more than 50% of its gross from the US. Most Marvel movies get 55%+ from their gross overseas.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

BO underestimated Black Panther 2 months out.

Article: $90M opening, $275M domestic gross, 3.06 multiplier
Actual: $202M first weekend, $700M domestic gross, 3.47 multiplier

 

[KBX]

Making sure I got this right,

1. Brie Larson doesn’t smile
2. Brie looks to be miscast
3. The Trailers have been awful
4. WW already happened, female lead novelty has worn off.

So someone want to explain to me how this is tracking well over 100 mil opening weekend? Guess there’s no such thing as bad publicity

 

[flickchick85]

BO underestimated Black Panther 2 months out.

Article: $90M opening, $275M domestic gross, 3.06 multiplier
Actual: $202M first weekend, $700M domestic gross, 3.47 multiplier

Not a good idea to use BP as a baseline for anything here though, imo. That was an outlier, not the norm. BUT as was just posted in the main discussion thread, the only time they've been significantly off on their predictions for a Marvel film in recent years are when it has notably over-performed, so this is definitely a good sign.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

BO underestimated Black Panther 2 months out.

Article: $90M opening, $275M domestic gross, 3.06 multiplier
Actual: $202M first weekend, $700M domestic gross, 3.47 multiplier

To be fair no one expected or predicted Black Panther would be nearly as huge as it was, so I wouldn't only blame them for underestimating it considering pretty much everyone else did aswell.

Making sure I got this right,

1. Brie Larson doesn’t smile
2. Brie looks to be miscast
3. The Trailers have been awful
4. WW already happened, female lead novelty has worn off.

So someone want to explain to me how this is tracking well over 100 mil opening weekend? Guess there’s no such thing as bad publicity

Just goes to show you that all this toxic SJW talk can't be taken that seriously IMO. People can hate on this movie all they want, but at the end of the day its going to make a lot of money regardless if they like or not.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

If Captain Marvel is a >$400M DG gets it into the Top 3 on average domestically over the past 5 years.

For 2019 it would take some heavy hitters to get past a number like that and knock it to #4 or lower.

 

[Silver Surfer]

That is a staggeringly high number, but we shouldn't be surprised if Venom with rotten reviews can do 800m, and Aquaman with barely fresh reviews can do 1b, then anything is possible.

And this is early tracking and they have it at 160m OW, if they do an Endgame trailer with CM in it, all bets are off as this might flirt with 200m OW then.

 

[Kuwolski]

I'm a bit shocked. I wouldn't have been surprised when the movie was announced based on the character's cinematic potential (I love CM in the comics), but these trailers have done nothing for me. Hopefully I'm proven wrong but clearly there is an appetite for this film that I didn't see.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think the reception of the trailer as negative was misread, I found this on BOT:

"The first trailer broke records as the highest viewed trailer for a Solo MCU franchise debut film in 24 hours with 109 million views (20 million more views than Black Panther’s first trailer) and has over a million likes on YouTube, the second Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to have over a million likes for it’s first trailer on YouTube after Avengers: Infinity War."