Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Webfoot Hero]

The reviews at this point are indeed solid, but I do wonder how that 7 avg. is going to affect the performance after this opening weekend? It didn't hurt the Deadpool films too much, but those films offer a change of pace and bring in different demos then other more standard films in t

I do think may take some of its BO oomph and cultural impact away. I think it may have attracted a slightly larger audience had the reviews been a bit more glowing.

 

[Kuwolski]

I do think may take some of its BO oomph and cultural impact away. I think it may have attracted a slightly larger audience had the reviews been a bit more glowing.

I agree. People often say things like Aquaman and Venom (even more so) were critic-proof based on the great box office numbers, but I find those statements trivial. Venom could have made a billion and Aquaman likely would beat Black Panther had the reviews for each been better.

And Captain Marvel is at a place where it could still end up in the mid-eighties, but it could also fall off into the seventies.

 

[InCali]

If Captain Marvel makes $600-700m, I'll delete my account. If it makes any more, delete yours.

Deal?

One can only dream.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Empire suffered an equally massive BO drop off from Star Wars. The only ominous warning future filmmakers should learn is that it is super difficult to crack $1billion at the domestic BO.

True, but TLJ had the worst legs in the history of the Saga. It's boxoffice was underwhelming in some aspects, but can in no way be classified a failure.

 

[dyl1dyl]

I think 1 bill is definietly much more of a doubt after the good but far from great reviews. doenst bode well at all for repeat viewings. However, seems China is doing well for presales and will likely hit ~200 mil alone

 

[MahvelBaby!]

There's been some legit terrible movies make it to a billion I still think it's a possibility. But I think 800 is,a safe bet

 

[dyl1dyl]

Yeah, I think this will do well enough in Asia which should boost it a lot. USA is actually interesting. wonder if it can hit 450 mil or more

 

[darrenbevan1]

Am not sure it'll hit the heights after word of mouth / lukewarm edges.
My IMAX review here - a spoiler free review of Captain Marvel, which I saw in IMAX last night. At Darren's World of Entertainment: Captain Marvel: Film Review

 

[Hammer!]

Not sure on a billion. Space movies just don't seem to gain a lot of steam in some major international markets. Thor has done better than most given he's a major identifiable European figure, but even he hasn't done gangbusters comparatively.

 

[Kuwolski]

We'll have a better idea this weekend with the internal multipliers and final WW total (350 m + via Deadline). Next week will really tell us if a billion is a good bet or not.

 

[flickchick85]

I never believed it would hit a billion, and I still don't. But I think it's got a damn good shot at $800-900mil now. Anything over $700mil would be great, though, and would still be their 2nd highest-grossing solo origin.

 

[Kuwolski]

I never believed it would hit a billion, and I still don't. But I think it's got a damn good shot at $800-900mil now. Anything over $700mil would be great, though, and would still be their 2nd highest-grossing solo origin.

I didn't either until I saw the massive projections for the two biggest markets in the world. Excellent WOM could get it 600 m just from the US and China alone. We'll just have to see.

 

[roxas99]

I think 1 bill is definitely much more of a doubt after the good but far from great reviews. doesn't bode well at all for repeat viewings. However, seems China is doing well for presales and will likely hit ~200 mil alone

So let me get this straight


Aqua-man has a 65 on RT and made over a billion dollars
Captain marvel has a 84 on RT and is expected to open bigger than aquaman

yet because it has a RT score in the 80s it somehow is going to perform worse than
aqua-man did


yeah this definitely is not the most convincing augment for this movie not making a billion.....

 

[combocaz]

600-700m my guess.

 

[Jh7058622]

I think I'll be able to make a judgment on it next weekend if it drops off hard like BvS or has good legs. I don't want any movie to do bad though I don't care much for this one hopefully it does do well because why not? If it doesn't idrc.

 

[dyl1dyl]

So let me get this straight


Aqua-man has a 65 on RT and made over a billion dollars
Captain marvel has a 84 on RT and is expected to open bigger than aquaman

yet because it has a RT score in the 80s it somehow is going to perform worse than
aqua-man did


yeah this definitely is not the most convincing augment for this movie not making a billion.....

sorry, want clear. what i meant is I originally thought this would clear/be around 1bill

However, based on the reviews being middling (more the average scores, rather than rotten tomatoes fresh/not fresh)

it does seem that it might have less positive word of mouth and repeat viewings. nothing is for certain of course, public might receive it very diffirently from critics

 

[psylockolussus]

Anything over $650 million is great imo, its Captain Marvel after all.

 

[Warlock]

I think $650m is a pretty safe bet with all the advertising and hype. I don't think $800m WW is a lock though, despite what most people are saying on here.

 

[Shuri]

I somehow feel that the audience might love this more than the critics. Some of the reactions from fans on twitter are very positive. It has spectacle, humor and heart, I think the audience will eat it up.

 

[Iceman]

I agree. People often say things like Aquaman and Venom (even more so) were critic-proof based on the great box office numbers, but I find those statements trivial. Venom could have made a billion and Aquaman likely would beat Black Panther had the reviews for each been better.

And Captain Marvel is at a place where it could still end up in the mid-eighties, but it could also fall off into the seventies.

True. We don’t know how much income has been given up and just because those films made a lot is no indication of how much more they might have made. What would a Black Panther with poor reviews have made for eg.

 

[Adder]

I don't see a billion happening but I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

I just want it to outgross Wonder Woman

 

[JOE]

I just want it to outgross Wonder Woman

It definitely has a shot... We all know what will happen if it doesn't.

 

[Fallen]

 

[Fallen]