Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Iceman]

Many major characters died in Infinity War and it made $678 million domestic/$2 billion worldwide. After IW came out, there were predictions that the snap would cause people to forego repeat viewings but that obviously didn't happen. Now that the audience has seen half of all life in the universe die, taking many heroes along with it, it's doubtful that any deaths in Endgame will drive them away. After all, we already watched Spider-Man's heartbreaking death and went back for more viewings.

True. But the end numbers don’t really tell you what the legs would be without the Cap Stark ending in CW or deaths of IW. Jurassic World had much better legs than both films for eg despite also opening very big in summer. Most of us who are not put off by deaths, will still see the film plenty of times even if there aren’t any deaths or a sad ending. But maybe parents don’t take kids back as often for these kinds of films. Not that Endgame needs great legs to get to a $700m plus total gross if it opens as large as some predictions. Maybe fans are just that much keener for these films and see them straightaway.

 

[ADollarADay]

Thing about Civil War is that it was probably the least “crowd-pleasing” Marvel film until IW. Cap and IM having a falling out and the Avengers breaking up is a bit of a downer notion for people, wasn’t the uplifting ending audiences come to expect from these movies, and that’s the kind of thing that will affect legs, no matter how great the movie was.

That's a good theory if it wasn't for IW.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I know the East Coast, especially the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor, is getting hit with a nasty winter storm this weekend so I wonder if that will have any impact on the OW total.

 

[roxas99]

I think the big difference between civil war and infinity war is the tone of both films. yes Infinity War killed off characters yet somehow Civil War still feels like a much darker film

I think it was easy for people to go along with a magic gauntlet made their heroes turn into ashes.
some people may have been upset but since its magic most people think the effects can be reversed and the end credits offer people hope with the captain marvel tease at the end

This is a big reason why infinity wars legs was not hurt by killing off major characters

It was much harder for people to watch winter-solider brutally murder tony parents and a depressed Zemo tying to blow his brains out

There is no magic or supernatural elements here
instead we are watching people commit horrible acts against themselves and each other
The heroes are too buy fighting each other to care about the bad guy

There is very little hope at the end of civil war
yes captain america gives a nice speech but it ultimately changes nothing

1. Tony parents are still dead
2. Zemo plan to tear the avengers apart is a success
3. Captain america still betrayed tony


Civil War left general audience with very little to be enthusiastic or hopeful about and that is what hurt its legs at the box-office

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Just got out of the movie...personally loved it.

Crowd was massive btw but the idiots didn't pick my assigned seating theater

 

[Smurphftw]

I think the big difference between civil war and infinity war is the tone of both films. yes Infinity War killed off characters yet somehow Civil War still feels like a much darker film

I think it was easy for people to go along with a magic gauntlet made their heroes turn into ashes.
some people may have been upset but since its magic most people think the effects can be reversed and the end credits offer people hope with the captain marvel tease at the end

This is a big reason why infinity wars legs was not hurt by killing off major characters

It was much harder for people to watch winter-solider brutally murder tony parents and a depressed Zemo tying to blow his brains out

There is no magic or supernatural elements here
instead we are watching people commit horrible acts against themselves and each other
The heroes are too buy fighting each other to care about the bad guy

There is very little hope at the end of civil war
yes captain america gives a nice speech but it ultimately changes nothing

1. Tony parents are still dead
2. Zemo plan to tear the avengers apart is a success
3. Captain america still betrayed tony


Civil War left general audience with very little to be enthusiastic or hopeful about and that is what hurt its legs at the box-office

I personally was extremely enthusiastic about that airport scene.

 

[Fallen]

8.9 on Maoyan!

 

[Adder]

8.9 on Maoyan!

Got any other past movie numbers for a comparison?

 

[Jh7058622]

Thing about Civil War is that it was probably the least “crowd-pleasing” Marvel film until IW. Cap and IM having a falling out and the Avengers breaking up is a bit of a downer notion for people, wasn’t the uplifting ending audiences come to expect from these movies, and that’s the kind of thing that will affect legs, no matter how great the movie was.

I didn't like that movie in general. It was just so nonsensical in so many ways. Tony brings a teenager to fight people for no reason other than fan service. Spider-Man's costume was not my favorite nor was Tony's characterization but I don't want to go into that...

Anyhow again I'm very curious to see how this does not this weekend but next weekend as that's going to be the true test.

 

[Jh7058622]

And Venom.

I thought Venom was the "bottom of the barrel" why is it suddenly the benchmark?

 

[Holy Slapper]

I thought Venom was the "bottom of the barrel" why is it suddenly the benchmark?

You do realize this thread is all about money, not quality of the film?

 

[Jh7058622]

You do realize this thread is all about money, not quality of the film?

But that was directly what we were discussing in conjunction with the money.

 

[Silver Surfer]

MY IMAX screening was packed, wall to wall, and I was surprised by the kind of crowd that showed up. Normally on preview Thursday it's mostly the fanboy crowd, which was well represented, but I was taken aback by how many families with kids showed up, they normally wait for the weekend.

 

[flickchick85]

So could Endgame then suffer in the same way if a major character dies?

It could, but I think it will have a much more uplifting ending, since it's capping off the first 3 phases and their big picture story - basically it should be the ending some unsuspecting moviegoers were hoping for in Infinity War before they realized that it was basically a "Part 1."

 

[Holy Slapper]

But that was directly what we were discussing in conjunction with the money.

No, we were clearly discussing Civil War.

 

[Jh7058622]

With the film not having overly glowing critic reviews to entice people in, it'll likely need good audience WOM for it to have good legs.

Aquaman says hi.

And Venom.

Look at the chain of messages yes it was talking about the quality in conjunction with the box office performance.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Look at the chain of messages yes it was talking about the quality in conjunction with the box office performance.

You kids really don't recognize sarcasm without an emoji, do you?

 

[Hammer!]

I finally saw venom this week. Up there with Suicide Squad, Fan4stic, BvS, and Apocalypse for worst CBM in the last ten years.

 

[Jh7058622]

Many major characters died in Infinity War and it made $678 million domestic/$2 billion worldwide. After IW came out, there were predictions that the snap would cause people to forego repeat viewings but that obviously didn't happen. Now that the audience has seen half of all life in the universe die, taking many heroes along with it, it's doubtful that any deaths in Endgame will drive them away. After all, we already watched Spider-Man's heartbreaking death and went back for more viewings.

I don't really buy that line of thinking completely as many parents complained about the downer ending of ashing half the characters in the movie off effectively "killing" them. But it didn't seem to effect that film that much.

I personally love more heartbreak in my superheroes which is why I'm more of a X-Men and Spider-Man fan.

 

[Jh7058622]

You kids really don't recognize sarcasm without an emoji, do you?

Neither do old people because that's exactly what my original post was meant to be.

 

[Silver Surfer]

8.9 on Maoyan!

A 100m OW is pretty much in the bag with that kind of WOM. Let's see how high this gets, BOT is saying 112ish

 

[Silver Surfer]

$20M-$24M Thursday Night

‘Captain Marvel’ Blasting Off With $20M-$24M Thursday Night – Early B.O. Read

I want that damn record! but I'll take 160+

 

[Detective Conan]

I don't like DC... So I want Marvel stuff to do better. Nothing against them just always been a Marvel Zombie

That makes sense, man. I'm a DC guy but I guess it's a little like rooting for your favorite sports team in a way.DC doesn't have a good winning streak like Marvel does(film-wise)and sometimes as a DC guy it's frustrating to see my team lose constantly but so I still root for them despite that 'cos I'm still a loyal fan at heart.

Now as a guy who isn't into sports I kind of hope my sports analogy isn't too off the mark. Granted, at the end of the day it's all entertainment and really these studios aren't really competing against each other but I think it's fun to treat it a little like sports in some way.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Projections from BOT based on that deadline estimate:

On the low end:
20M
60.3M (inc. previews)
52.4M
40.3M
153M

On the high end:
24M
72.3M (inc. previews)
62.8M
48.4M
183.5M

 

[Hammer!]

Yeah this has at least a 50/50 shot at a billion. All those comparable MCU Thursday nights/opening weekends did, and Suicide Squad would have if it had China and wasn’t a dumpster fire.