Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[MahvelBaby!]

The haters are now going to move the goalposts and say "let's wait for the second weekend drop".

Ok...but the one guy needs to eat his own feces like he promised

 

[Silver Surfer]

Over at BOT they are saying don't be surprised if the global opening weekend is higher than 400m.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Making your budget back week one must be fun lol

 

[Iceman]

Over at BOT they are saying don't be surprised if the global opening weekend is higher than 400m.

If that deadline quote about the overseas debut being well higher than $210m is accurate, then close to or in excess of $400m is definitely possible.

 

[Fallen]

$400M? Jesus!

Another L for the trolls.

 

[Silver Surfer]

$400M? Jesus!

Another L for the trolls.

Live look at Brie Larson:

 

[Saitou Hajime]

"Yeah, but it's Marvel, it was always going to make money. Just imagine how much more money they would have made if they didn't alienate the white males!"

or

"Yeah, but a lot of terrible movies make lots of money."

 

[ADollarADay]

If CM opens to 150MM+ (looking likely right now), then:

Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier(2.28 CW) = 342MM
Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier origin movie (2.43 TIH) = 364.5MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier for first movie in series (2.96) = 448MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier (2.76) = 414MM

While I don't want to say 400MM is a lock because I need to see the WOM first, I think this movie will probably get a 2.75 - 3+ multiplier, especially since it has no competition until Us. If the 150MM OW holds I'm guessing it will outgross Diana in the US and become #2 origin solo movie debut.

 

[Iceman]

If CM opens to 150MM+ (looking likely right now), then:

Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier(2.28 CW) = 342MM
Worst OW MCU domestic multiplier origin movie (2.43 TIH) = 364.5MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier for first movie in series (2.96) = 448MM
Average MCU domestic multiplier (2.76) = 414MM

While I don't want to say 400MM is a lock because I need to see the WOM first, I think this movie will probably get a 2.75 - 3+ multiplier, especially since it has no competition until Us. If the 150MM OW holds I'm guessing it will outgross Diana in the US and become #2 origin solo movie debut.

Yes, I think the chances of that are high with what we’ve got at this point.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Well nothing wrong with making almost half a billion in one week, but its sad how much time the trolls and haters are going to put into spinning this because you know they will. Watch there be over 20 videos pop up on YouTube in the next couple of weeks talking about conspiracies with Disney spending their own money to inflate its BO numbers which makes no god damn sense whatsoever lol.

 

[Iceman]

Apparently there was a youtuber who said he would eat his own s*** if CM opened to 150 or more. He was convinced it would open to less than 80m due to the 'backlash'...

$80m? Hahaha.

 

[kvz5]

Well nothing wrong with making almost half a billion in one week, but its sad how much time the trolls and haters are going to put into spinning this because you know they will. Watch there be over 20 videos pop up on YouTube in the next couple of weeks talking about conspiracies with Disney spending their own money to inflate its BO numbers which makes no god damn sense whatsoever lol.

I think it’s pretty clear that they’re not the smartest and most logical people around so let them spin it however they want. It won’t matter and it surely won’t make a lick of sense.

At WORST, Brie and Disney will be like:

 

[Iceman]

Well nothing wrong with making almost half a billion in one week, but its sad how much time the trolls and haters are going to put into spinning this because you know they will. Watch there be over 20 videos pop up on YouTube in the next couple of weeks talking about conspiracies with Disney spending their own money to inflate its BO numbers which makes no god damn sense whatsoever lol.

That’s not going to bother me. They know underneath that they’ve lost this one. People can move goalposts all they like when it comes to trying to mislead others and to rally the cause, but they can’t deny raw numbers to themselves and I can assure you this will be resulting in a few tears in basements.

 

[flickchick85]

Well nothing wrong with making almost half a billion in one week, but its sad how much time the trolls and haters are going to put into spinning this because you know they will. Watch there be over 20 videos pop up on YouTube in the next couple of weeks talking about conspiracies with Disney spending their own money to inflate its BO numbers which makes no god damn sense whatsoever lol.

Let them try to stay relevant. The movie is speaking for itself now, and it's making them look sadder than ever.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Campea struck to his 90-100 million to the bitter end but he isn't a hater. He was just basing it on past origin stories.

 

[Iceman]

Campea struck to his 90-100 million to the bitter end but he isn't a hater. He was just basing it on past origin stories.

It doesn’t make sense to do that when most of them came out when the market for CBMs and particularly MCU CBMs was smaller. Obviously this is not possible but imagine how big a Captain America or Thor origin film coming out now would be compared to the openings back then.

 

[flickchick85]

Campea struck to his 90-100 million to the bitter end but he isn't a hater. He was just basing it on past origin stories.

I wouldn't blame him for expecting it to be that low. Hell, less than 3 years ago, people were psyched about Doctor Strange's $85mil opening. The only Marvel origin film that's even topped $100mil is BP. No one a year ago would've expected CM's opening to be closer to Civil War's than Doc Strange's.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

Campea struck to his 90-100 million to the bitter end but he isn't a hater. He was just basing it on past origin stories.

True and while I do understand his reasoning's I think he really underestimated it by thinking it was just your typical MCU origin flick when it has always had so much more going for it. Captain Marvel might not have had a lengthy introduction like Spider-Man or Black Panther did in Civil War, but honestly this movie didn't need it because the end credits of IW were pretty much all you needed to get people hyped and then it helps even more that its the movie that ties directly into Endgame. Marvel really is top dog when it comes to how they market their movies, because they can do so little and still get people excited all because general audiences actually trust the brand.

 

[Iceman]

So we’re looking at a probable top 10 all time domestic CBM, and it’s not really going to need great legs to get there if OW estimates pan out.

 

[Mysteryman]

The haters are now going to move the goalposts and say "let's wait for the second weekend drop".

Yeah, but they were alway going to do that.

 

[Mysteryman]

True and while I do understand his reasoning's I think he really underestimated it by thinking it was just your typical MCU origin flick when it has always had so much more going for it. Captain Marvel might not have had a lengthy introduction like Spider-Man or Black Panther did in Civil War, but honestly this movie didn't need it because the end credits of IW were pretty much all you needed to get people hyped and then it helps even more that its the movie that ties directly into Endgame. Marvel really is top dog when it comes to how they market their movies, because they can do so little and still get people excited all because general audiences actually trust the brand.

One interesting thing is that Campea said that he liked the film but it wasn't a top tier Marvel film.
A lot of people here seem to disagree with that.

And he thought that the box office was going to be on the lower end of things because people don't know who Carol/Captain Marvel is and unlike Black Panther or Wonder Woman on the DC side, she wasn't introduced to general audience in other movies prior to her solo film like those characters were.

That's logical, but, so far, that doesn't seem to be a problem.
We shall see how it all shakes out.

 

[Timebomb]

CM just got an A cinemascore which means audience's are loving it which bodes well for legs and makes that 34% RT audience score seem even sillier.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Also all the BS the haters peddled about it alienating male viewers, well males made up 61% of the audience for CM so far. Which is higher than some other movies like:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi 60%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 56%
Spider-Man: Homecoming 59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron 58%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 58%

Guys like watching baddass chicks, in case anyone was wondering.

 

[jmc]

Also all the BS the haters peddled about it alienating male viewers, well males made up 61% of the audience for CM so far. Which is higher than some other movies like:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi 60%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 56%
Spider-Man: Homecoming 59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron 58%
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 58%

Guys like watching baddass chicks, in case anyone was wondering.

Then perhaps it's enough to shut the media up about the trolls and how little effect they have. On the other hand, The fact so few women turned out says a lot though about the appeal of the character. Wonder Woman got 52% female audience, the only superhero film to lean female.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Then perhaps it's enough to shut the media up about the trolls and how little effect they have. On the other hand, The fact so few women turned out says a lot though about the appeal of the character. Wonder Woman got 52% female audience, the only superhero film to lean female.

WW was presented as a cultural event, so it made sense that it skewed so far female, a lot like BP and the African American audience.