Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[psylockolussus]

lego movie is not a great franchise to the point of disrupting a super hero movie.
surely the audience of both are quite different, and the latest lego franchise movie got less than 150m box office worldwide.
what we mean, and that DP will not have a major competitor,but logically the film will not be the only release of the month, will have films from other segments being released,usually low budget romantic comedy films.

Ninjago flopped and Apocalypse underperformed. Though Lego Movie 2 isn't a sequel to Ninjago but a follow up to Lego Movie which earned 257,760,692 in North America, while Apocalypse earned less than that. So between the two, you can't count out the Lego Movie. So if that's not gonna be a competition and dont have kids and their parents watch it over the Lego Movie then great! The X-Men franchise is notorious for its weak legs and I doubt this would change with Dark PhoeniX.

 

[Davidstorm]

Well, all these movies that you quoted were much more anticipated, than the movies that DP will face after the 14th ... anyway, the movie will have a much freer way than its predecessors, apocalypse for example faced in 2 weeks.(Me before you, Teenaje mutant ninja ...., Warcraft and The conjuring 2).
Dark phoenix will debut 6 days after the film Lego 2 and will have as main competitors: Isn’t It Romantic,Instant Family, The Rhythm Section and The Turning.without a doubt, a better way than they would face in November ( The Nutcracker.. Fantastic Beasts, Robin Hood, Creed 2 and The list),... now is to see if the film takes advantage of this or not.

 

[psylockolussus]

Geez. The Lego Movie and family animated films can have really strong legs at the box office. I am amazed that you keep glossing it over. Don't be surprised if Lego Movie 2 starts taking over Dark Phoenix, after dp's first two weeks. And what makes you think it would so well if the movie ends up below average? With or without major competition for the entire month, it has to be as good / appealing as Black Panther, Deadpool and Logan to do really well at the box office. There's zero sign right now that this film would follow the footsteps of those films.

 

[Davidstorm]

I do not have crystal ball to know the future, and I'm talking about local and international box office, the world is not just United States
I am just stating a fact, in February he will have less competition than he would have in November, how much he will be able to take advantage of it or not, we do not know. OK?

 

[psylockolussus]

I do not have crystal ball to know the future, and I'm talking about local and international box office, the world is not just United States

Well Apocalypse got a decrease in other major markets outside of the United States compare to what Dofp got. What makes you think Dark Phoenix would improve other than it is being released in a less crowded month? For all we know, it could be front loaded and still drop big for its next several weeks.

 

[Davidstorm]

I do not need to explain reasons for the fall of apocalypse, but I can summarize the reason: bad movie.
I also have the answer, if you ask why DOFP increased box office internationally, after X3 and first class.
but I'm not talking about it ... I'm not understanding your agony, I'm just saying the obvious, the movie in February will have fewer competitors, how much will it do, if it's going to be a good movie to be able to take advantage of this situation, if will get more or less internationally, I'll reply to you at the end of February.

 

[psylockolussus]

Because you are ignoring that this is a sequel to a bad movie and there's zero hype for this. They can release this in any less crowded month but if there's a lack of interest, it wouldn't help. Include the factor that Lego Movie 2 could have really strong legs if it performed like its predecessor.

 

[Davidstorm]

Oh God

but who is ignoring something? Of course when you come from something bad, you will have more difficulty recovering, but this is not impossible.
you have an inexplicable agony with any comment that sees anything positive in something in or around this movie.
at no time did I say that the movie is going to be a box office hit, even if you go back a little, you will see that my prediction is that if the movie is good something around 590-650m.
I'm just talking, talking and talking repeatedly, that little competition in February can help locally and also in other markets, when I say this can help, I'm not claiming that the movie is going to make 900million at the box office or go through the avatar box office.

Now I need to sleep
bye

 

[psylockolussus]

It won't help much if the film is bad or worse than Apocalypse. Audience would simply see other films instead or just wait for Captain Marvel.

 

[Superhero 101]

Well the good news is I think dark Phoenix will be the first superhero movie of the year which should be good because January tends to have no good movies and the genera, audience will be wanting a good movie to watch look at how deadpool and black panther performed by opening early on in the year

 

[psylockolussus]

Being the first or last Superhero film of the year don't mean anything in my opinion. People are gonna respond to what they see, and the goodwill of its predecessor/s. There isn't really a gimmick to this that would pursue a lot of the general public. Its another prequel and a rehash of X3.

 

[Superhero 101]

I agree but being one of the first blockbusters of the year definitely puts it in a good spot though and I wouldn't consider it a rehash of x3 yes there are some similar elements but with a different take

 

[psylockolussus]

Resident Evil; The Final Chapter was one of the first few blockbusters of 2017. While Maze Runner was the first blockbuster of 2018. And those films underperformed big time in North America.

And the thing is they are retreading just by doing Dark Phoenix again.

 

[Superhero 101]

But those two movies aren’t as big of a franchise as compared to X-Men which has a bigger fan base following

 

[DACrowe]

I think we'll have a better idea when we see the marketing.

I think it is a bit intellectually dishonest to compare this to January releases to franchises that were always considered "small" like Maze Runner and especially Resident Evil. Particularly as Fox is clearly focused more on the success stories of having Deadpool and Logan (also X-related films without "X-Men" in the title) open in February/first week of March and being hits.

... If the marketing is good, there is a chance to change audience perception. See Thor: Ragnarok for more. If the marketing is as bland as X-Men: Apocalypse... well psylockcolossus will probably end up being right. But at the moment, this is just wishful thinking until we actually see how the movie's rollout is presented.

 

[Iceman]

Well the good news is I think dark Phoenix will be the first superhero movie of the year which should be good because January tends to have no good movies and the genera, audience will be wanting a good movie to watch look at how deadpool and black panther performed by opening early on in the year

January is not considered a good month because people are just coming off a major family holiday, often filled with letting yourself go. With resolutions and the start of a New Year, leisure activities don’t usually feature as much off the bat with many focusing on starting the new year in a good way with work/exercise etc. The right film can change that but as things are, I think middle of the road films will find it harder there, even without competition.

 

[psylockolussus]

But those two movies aren’t as big of a franchise as compared to X-Men which has a bigger fan base following

No its an eXample, that being the first blockbuster film doesn't mean anything if the general public isn't interested enough. They arealso releasing it in February because they know they couldn't handle competition that much, and that's a clear sign that this franchise isn't strong as it used to be. Kung Fu Panda 3 was released in January, did it improve upon its predecessors at the boX office? Not really. And this being a sequel to a bad film, would have a big hurdle to overcome. Having a bigger fanbase doesn't mean anything when films like Maleficent and Dr. Strange have out grossed a X-Men film in the past.

 

[psylockolussus]

This wont stand a chance nXt summer. Well at least FoX is consistent putting all x team films including tnm in the summer.

 

[Mutant 77]

This wont stand a chance nXt summer. Well at least FoX is consistent putting all x team films including tnm in the summer.

 

[Black Narcissus]

Alex, I'll take 20million for the weekend.

What is a box office bomb?

We'll be right back on Jeopardy!

 

[SumT]

I have a new prediction, taking into account the brilliant teaser and great interviews so far:

$900m ww

 

[Mutant 77]

I have a new prediction, taking into account the brilliant teaser and great interviews so far:

$900m ww

Life is unpredictable. As much as I wish that would happen, I think 600m WW will be the maximum amount. Still great for an X-Men movie, even.

 

[I Am The Knight]

 

[MewMewTwo]

I am worried it wont do much and will get destroyed by reviews no matter the quality, i can bet we are gonna get a lot of "this movie is irrelevant, disney already got the rights to make new ones"

 

[Iceman]

I am worried it wont do much and will get destroyed by reviews no matter the quality, i can bet we are gonna get a lot of "this movie is irrelevant, disney already got the rights to make new ones"

I don’t see why it would get destroyed by reviewers if it’s good. Logan wasn’t exactly set up for a sequel and they loved that. Do you think Logan would have got destroyed if it had been the one coming last before a rights transfer?