Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[SumT]

Logan had the early talk/hype of X23 getting her own movie directed by Mangold himself.
not to mention that it had the great Patrick Stewart starring in it too, so that was gonna help the movie worldwide.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Logan was getting billed as the final Wolverine appearance and was more or less a swan song for the OT era.

 

[psylockolussus]

And Hugh Jackman as Wolverine was popular to the general audience. First Class/Apocalypse cast portraying X-Men characters aren't.

 

[Dugath]

I suppose it might make money, things I think should bomb does well for some reason (Venom). I will not spend any $ on this knowing that it will be re-booted because of the merger. Anyways, did I not see this already.. Phoenix VS the X-Men.. I really feel like I watched this before... hmmm

Even without the merger and the fact this plot was already done on the big screen I do not believe there was enough of a build up with her character to have this movie right now.

 

[imbruglia]

I guess between 400~500m. it is still big brand with big name actors.

 

[psylockolussus]

Damn 400 million is pretty small these days, X3 got 450million but that was before international markets started to bring a lot of money and 3d/IMAX weren't common for blockbuster films.

I think in North America, it will take a lot of beating.

 

[Xeno]

The main X-franchise* is pretty much a known quality where the box office is concerned. In North America, it hit its high water mark with X3 and X2 in terms of adjusted box office earnings. The second trilogy's earnings dropped off significantly domestically, though DOFP did fairly well (DOFP $266 million vs. $325 million for X2 and $327 million for X3, all adjusted). The foreign box office has expanded exponentially in the last decade, however, which has allowed DOFP and AOA to far exceed the worldwide earnings of the earliest X-Men films.

Due to competition and other factors, I don't think that Dark Phoenix has any chance of coming close to the franchise's highest earnings. It will probably skew closer to AOA and FC, in the $150 million range domestically. If DP can come close to AOA's foreign box office, that would put it over $500 million worldwide. That would be a very decent total for it, all things considered. It would do much better than break even once the box office and ancillary revenues are toted up. Ironically, Disney's acquisition of Fox may allow for higher profits on DP since Fox will no longer have to pay a percentage of the film's box office take to the Mouse as part of the defunct franchise contract.


* I'm only talking about the team films. Deadpool and the Wolverine trilogy have set their own, separate box office trajectories, in my opinion.

 

[psylockolussus]

The interest for a X-Men main team imo is at the all time low. Remember when a Transformers movie couldn't hit the $150 million in North America last year, and this one is opening against the secret Life of Pets 2. Dark PhoeniX is really shaping up to underperform neXt year. And whats weird is the success of the Deadpool movies and Logan aren't convincing people to give this a chance.

 

[Xeno]

The interest for a X-Men main team imo is at the all time low. Remember when a Transformers movie couldn't hit the $150 million in North America last year, and this one is opening against the secret Life of Pets 2. Dark PhoeniX is really shaping up to underperform neXt year. And whats weird is the success of the Deadpool movies and Logan aren't convincing people to give this a chance.

Deadpool is its own thing. It's so hilarious and refreshing that audiences have responded to it with an enthusiasm they haven't felt for the main X films. Wade himself highlights the differences between his world and that of Xavier's uptight followers. If the Singerverse had ever developed the sense of sheer fun that Deadpool revels in, I think that it would have connected with a wider audience. And no, I'm not suggesting that the movies should be comedies, just that they need to embrace the wonder and adventure that they've been missing.

 

[SumT]

the only adventure Kinberg is interested about is an adventure that involves Charles and Erik, just like he suggested with the Rogue sequence. and the reason it was cut completely.
he isnt interested in the X-Men and their adventures/missions, he is interested in the Charles-Erik dynamic, whatever the main plot is. As long as Charles-Erik are at the core, Kinberg is pleased. even if years later he says they made mistakes and have learned from them for the next sequel.
he keeps missing the mark time after time.

 

[psylockolussus]

Deadpool is its own thing. It's so hilarious and refreshing that audiences have responded to it with an enthusiasm they haven't felt for the main X films. Wade himself highlights the differences between his world and that of Xavier's uptight followers. If the Singerverse had ever developed the sense of sheer fun that Deadpool revels in, I think that it would have connected with a wider audience. And no, I'm not suggesting that the movies should be comedies, just that they need to embrace the wonder and adventure that they've been missing.

Even the forced X-Men cameo in Deadpool 2 isn't gonna help Dark PhoeniX. This what happens when the franchise is badly supervised by Kinberg. They don't feel like a 1 connective universe and with the success of the mcu, they should have mapped things out a lot better instead of throwing mud in the wall and see what sticks.

 

[MewMewTwo]

I don’t see why it would get destroyed by reviewers if it’s good. Logan wasn’t exactly set up for a sequel and they loved that. Do you think Logan would have got destroyed if it had been the one coming last before a rights transfer?

Because for most people nowadays "not the mcu= bad". Logan was overrated, is a MEH movie.

 

[Iceman]

Because for most people nowadays "not the mcu= bad". Logan was overrated, is a MEH movie.

Even most hardcore MCU fans like Logan, Deadpool, DofP, Wonder Woman, Spider-verse and the Nolan Bat-films. At least on this site.

 

[x-er]

^ I love all that stuff.

 

[x-er]

Could Laura aka X-23 be popular enough to sell a big X-Men film?

 

[X-Maniac]

Box office depends on many factors. Timing of a release make a massive difference. Aquaman has benefited from this - the only big escapist piece of entertainment in cinemas right now.

 

[SumT]

timing, but also great marketing helps.
something the X-Men havent had since Dofp.

 

[MewMewTwo]

Deadpool is its own thing. It's so hilarious and refreshing that audiences have responded to it with an enthusiasm they haven't felt for the main X films. Wade himself highlights the differences between his world and that of Xavier's uptight followers. If the Singerverse had ever developed the sense of sheer fun that Deadpool revels in, I think that it would have connected with a wider audience. And no, I'm not suggesting that the movies should be comedies, just that they need to embrace the wonder and adventure that they've been missing.

No way, both Deadpool movies have been pretty bad, i dont want them to dumb down the franchise just to make more money like the mcu does.

Even most hardcore MCU fans like Logan, Deadpool, DofP, Wonder Woman, Spider-verse and the Nolan Bat-films. At least on this site.

Maybe on this site they have more of an open mind, but then they would be the exception to the rule. Logan was meh and Deadpool bad and WW meh and Spiderverse looked bad though, so i dont trust that.

 

[BoredGuy]

Yeah, people on this site are pretty open-minded and willing to watch movies from studios other than their beloved

So let me ask, what movies DO you like?

Logan was dark, so you don't seem to go for the extra "grim-dark" stuff, DP and a few MCU films are basically comedy so you clearly don't like funny stuff, and the pure light-hearted adventurism of the MCU, WW and even Aquaman seem to not be your cup of tea

So, is it just FoX-Men and that's where you draw the line??

 

[psylockolussus]

Sounds like it.

 

[MewMewTwo]

Yeah, people on this site are pretty open-minded and willing to watch movies from studios other than their beloved

So let me ask, what movies DO you like?

Logan was dark, so you don't seem to go for the extra "grim-dark" stuff, DP and a few MCU films are basically comedy so you clearly don't like funny stuff, and the pure light-hearted adventurism of the MCU, WW and even Aquaman seem to not be your cup of tea

So, is it just FoX-Men and that's where you draw the line??

Maybe in this site, and recently (some years ago you would be banned for not praising the mcu, to put an example), that does not mean that most of the people from most other sites do. Reddit for example, thanks to their completely broken and ironically called "karma" system, you cannot say one flaw about the mcu or you get downvoted to hell, stopping you from even being able of making comments.

I like, and this is gonna sound crazy, but i like... Good movies, you know, the kind we barely get because hollywood is a factory of prefabricated products that have been assembled by a marketing team with a template to be as generic and formulaic and possible to get your money in an instant but lefting you with zero artistic satisfaction?

Logan was barely "dark", and it was a just ok movie with a lot of flaws, overall it was a wasted chance.
DP is a NOT FUNNY comedy, it is pretty stupid and a wasted chance of what could have been an actually good superhero satire, but they were content with making it in the laziest way possible. And the "comedy" segments or movies in the mcu are beyond cringe worthy.
I love comedy and funny stuff, i just dont like it when the comedy is bad, forced, and just not funny. I like my funny stuff to be actually funny, crazy to say that in a world where people actually laugh with a movie like Deadpool 2 or Ant-Man & The Wasp, i know.

Now, WW and Aquaman are just ok movies, i like them, but they are nothing special and since i watched them at theaters once i dont feel like watching them again, they dont have replay value.

Regarding the mcu, since i was a kid that i watched Iron Man in theaters i thought to myself: "That was not bad, but it was too simple and too humorous" Interesting enough, they have gone backwards with the tone, unlike by example the Harry Potter saga.
Instead of the mcu turning more dark and mature with the years, it became more childish and comedic, with the climax being Thor Ragnarok as THE shining example of everything wrong that disney gets and does with Marvel.
Is not that they made "pure light-hearted adventurism", is that they made light hearted movies mainly targeted at kids, where nothing happens, they are all the exact same movie, there are constant awfully forced jokes in the narrative that detract for the movies to have any kind of weight or emotional resonance (which includes twisting the characters just to fit one more joke), they all feel like a big tease to somehing that never comes, and a long list of etceteras.

This is my problem, to sum it up: All studios have mishandled the franchises they got. The one comic book based live action superhero franchise that gets what the source material is about and have wondefully translated that into the screen is the fox X-Men. In terms of quality, they are at the top. Everybody else is just doing random movies and then slapping a random franchise brand name on its movie title, specially disney.

Edit: And believe me, this is the short answer.

 

[BoredGuy]

Ok, well "good movies" and "not funny" are kind of vague terms, but that's alright
that's your.. unique.. opinion and I and many others will just have to strongly disagree with it

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Maybe in this site, and recently (some years ago you would be banned for not praising the mcu, to put an example), that does not mean that most of the people from most other sites do. Reddit for example, thanks to their completely broken and ironically called "karma" system, you cannot say one flaw about the mcu or you get downvoted to hell, stopping you from even being able of making comments.

I like, and this is gonna sound crazy, but i like... Good movies, you know, the kind we barely get because hollywood is a factory of prefabricated products that have been assembled by a marketing team with a template to be as generic and formulaic and possible to get your money in an instant but lefting you with zero artistic satisfaction?

Logan was barely "dark", and it was a just ok movie with a lot of flaws, overall it was a wasted chance.
DP is a NOT FUNNY comedy, it is pretty stupid and a wasted chance of what could have been an actually good superhero satire, but they were content with making it in the laziest way possible. And the "comedy" segments or movies in the mcu are beyond cringe worthy.
I love comedy and funny stuff, i just dont like it when the comedy is bad, forced, and just not funny. I like my funny stuff to be actually funny, crazy to say that in a world where people actually laugh with a movie like Deadpool 2 or Ant-Man & The Wasp, i know.

Now, WW and Aquaman are just ok movies, i like them, but they are nothing special and since i watched them at theaters once i dont feel like watching them again, they dont have replay value.

Regarding the mcu, since i was a kid that i watched Iron Man in theaters i thought to myself: "That was not bad, but it was too simple and too humorous" Interesting enough, they have gone backwards with the tone, unlike by example the Harry Potter saga.
Instead of the mcu turning more dark and mature with the years, it became more childish and comedic, with the climax being Thor Ragnarok as THE shining example of everything wrong that disney gets and does with Marvel.
Is not that they made "pure light-hearted adventurism", is that they made light hearted movies mainly targeted at kids, where nothing happens, they are all the exact same movie, there are constant awfully forced jokes in the narrative that detract for the movies to have any kind of weight or emotional resonance (which includes twisting the characters just to fit one more joke), they all feel like a big tease to somehing that never comes, and a long list of etceteras.

This is my problem, to sum it up: All studios have mishandled the franchises they got. The one comic book based live action superhero franchise that gets what the source material is about and have wondefully translated that into the screen is the fox X-Men. In terms of quality, they are at the top. Everybody else is just doing random movies and then slapping a random franchise brand name on its movie title, specially disney.

Edit: And believe me, this is the short answer.

In the late 80's my family was having dinner w/a friend of my moms. I was somewhere between 8-11 yrs of age and bored out of my mind- my mom's friend had an older son so I was hanging out in his room and he had a collection of X-men comics. I spent the next three hours consuming them like they were crack. That's what started my love of comics-- growing up I never read Spider-man, Avengers, Batman or anything other than X-men (well i did read New Warriors too). As luck would have it a few months after that 'The Pryde of X-Men' debuted (an X-Men Cartoon) and it pretty much cemented my love for X-men.

Everyone has their own story and everyone has their own reasons why they personally connected with the X-Men for me it was quite a few things. There was the main overarching story of not being accepted cuz ur different and being gay that was definitely something I could connect with--- that is the most obvious reason and the one that most people reference, but for me there are some key things I really responded to and things that make the X-men feel like the X-men:

Team Dynamics: Everyone has their favorite X-men character and while Wolverine may have been a long time favorite he never overshadowed the team. The team dynamic is at the core of what I think of when I think of X-men- how they work together, how they fight together, how they problem solve together. Singer and Fox FAILED miserably at that. Wolverine is a one man show and sadly it was at the expense of everyone else. They got it in their head that they had to make him front and center to pull in the audience. They never challenged themselves to develop the other characters and to trust in the team dynamic. That's a problem MCU doesn't have. Iron Man may be the star, but they do an excellent job sharing the spotlight and making all the other characters feel needed and relevant---and more importantly they all get a chance to shine. This is just one example of how Fox got this one wrong-- i have a lot more to say and plenty more examples of their shortcomings specific to this point but this is going to be a long rant so I'll save it for later (if needed).

Portrayal of Women: I've always been drawn to strong female leads-- and when I say strong I'm not necessarily referring to brute strength. X-Men has the best gallery of female characters in all of comics by far, and it's not even close! They did an excellent job of pushing women to the forefront before it was popular to do so. They had women in positions of leadership and never regulated them to simply being objects of the main male characters desires. I actually think they played a HUGE role in how women in comics were subsequently featured. Fox and Singer FAILED miserably at that! Storm was portrayed as meek and reserved and although she was later promoted to leader of the team, she never demonstrated great leadership skills. Jean was a hot mess and Rogue was a sad shadow of herself. It's painfully obvious that Singer didn't have any plans to honor this theme that is one of the X-Men's greatest accomplishments.

Science: My love of science as an adult has its root in my early x-men readings. Science played a huge role in most stories. It helped to define limits, explain powers, and surfacefd when characters were having to overcome obstacles. Bringing in more science elements to the characters also showcases how smart and creative they can be--- having Storm come up with creative ways to use her powers was a HUGE missed opportunity by Singer and Fox-- she ever only floated in slow motion...LAME! So I give fox and Singer a FAIL! (I've got ton more examples ready to go if you would like)

Interpersonal Relationships: This fits in w/the team dynamics but it's at the heart of the essence of the team I wanted to highlight it. The interpersonal dynamics was the unified glue of the team. I simply don't recognize any of those characters. That wasn't the Cyclops, Storm, Jean, Rogue, Iceman, Colossus, Emma Frost, Gambit, or Psylocke I grew up with. And please don't misunderstand, I'm not commenting on how franchises take liberties with storylines and character bios-- I'm perfectly fine with them changes things up to best fit the medium they are in. You can switch things around as long as you keep intact the essence of each character. I got a grade for how I feel Fox and Singer did.... F as in FAIL!

To me the points that I highlighted are the ones that I most identify as essential to telling a good X-men story. I'm thankful for the first two X-men movies and I think Fox needs to be credited for leading the way and where we are today so that has to be pointed out but with that said Fox and Singer have had the X-men property for 20 years- that's more than enough time to get there sh!t together, so with that said I am counting down the days till the X-men can fold into the MCU and I'm hoping I will finally get a movie that honors the X-men in a way I feel they haven't been yet.

 

[SumT]

You just nailed it big time, man. I couldnt have said it better myself.

the only thing I'll add is the core love relationships: Cyclops and Jean were never the only couple of the x-men, the +50 years of x-men comics have developed a lot of popular love relationships (we all know them), but Fox and Singer only cared (a bit) about Cyclops and Jean (and Wolverine). Thats all.

You just cant spend 20 years with his property having all these great x-men and only develop 1 love relationship (and really in a bad way at that). No man.
This is why Singer and Kinberg never were and never will be the right guys for this team/comic.
so yeah, Im 100% ready for Marvel and Feige to take over and pay more respect to the source material.

 

[MewMewTwo]

Ok, well "good movies" and "not funny" are kind of vague terms, but that's alright
that's your.. unique.. opinion and I and many others will just have to strongly disagree with it

Not really, but whatever, is good to talk about this.

In the late 80's my family was having dinner w/a friend of my moms. I was somewhere between 8-11 yrs of age and bored out of my mind- my mom's friend had an older son so I was hanging out in his room and he had a collection of X-men comics. I spent the next three hours consuming them like they were crack. That's what started my love of comics-- growing up I never read Spider-man, Avengers, Batman or anything other than X-men (well i did read New Warriors too). As luck would have it a few months after that 'The Pryde of X-Men' debuted (an X-Men Cartoon) and it pretty much cemented my love for X-men.

Everyone has their own story and everyone has their own reasons why they personally connected with the X-Men for me it was quite a few things. There was the main overarching story of not being accepted cuz ur different and being gay that was definitely something I could connect with--- that is the most obvious reason and the one that most people reference, but for me there are some key things I really responded to and things that make the X-men feel like the X-men:

Team Dynamics: Everyone has their favorite X-men character and while Wolverine may have been a long time favorite he never overshadowed the team. The team dynamic is at the core of what I think of when I think of X-men- how they work together, how they fight together, how they problem solve together. Singer and Fox FAILED miserably at that. Wolverine is a one man show and sadly it was at the expense of everyone else. They got it in their head that they had to make him front and center to pull in the audience. They never challenged themselves to develop the other characters and to trust in the team dynamic. That's a problem MCU doesn't have. Iron Man may be the star, but they do an excellent job sharing the spotlight and making all the other characters feel needed and relevant---and more importantly they all get a chance to shine. This is just one example of how Fox got this one wrong-- i have a lot more to say and plenty more examples of their shortcomings specific to this point but this is going to be a long rant so I'll save it for later (if needed).

Portrayal of Women: I've always been drawn to strong female leads-- and when I say strong I'm not necessarily referring to brute strength. X-Men has the best gallery of female characters in all of comics by far, and it's not even close! They did an excellent job of pushing women to the forefront before it was popular to do so. They had women in positions of leadership and never regulated them to simply being objects of the main male characters desires. I actually think they played a HUGE role in how women in comics were subsequently featured. Fox and Singer FAILED miserably at that! Storm was portrayed as meek and reserved and although she was later promoted to leader of the team, she never demonstrated great leadership skills. Jean was a hot mess and Rogue was a sad shadow of herself. It's painfully obvious that Singer didn't have any plans to honor this theme that is one of the X-Men's greatest accomplishments.

Science: My love of science as an adult has its root in my early x-men readings. Science played a huge role in most stories. It helped to define limits, explain powers, and surfacefd when characters were having to overcome obstacles. Bringing in more science elements to the characters also showcases how smart and creative they can be--- having Storm come up with creative ways to use her powers was a HUGE missed opportunity by Singer and Fox-- she ever only floated in slow motion...LAME! So I give fox and Singer a FAIL! (I've got ton more examples ready to go if you would like)

Interpersonal Relationships: This fits in w/the team dynamics but it's at the heart of the essence of the team I wanted to highlight it. The interpersonal dynamics was the unified glue of the team. I simply don't recognize any of those characters. That wasn't the Cyclops, Storm, Jean, Rogue, Iceman, Colossus, Emma Frost, Gambit, or Psylocke I grew up with. And please don't misunderstand, I'm not commenting on how franchises take liberties with storylines and character bios-- I'm perfectly fine with them changes things up to best fit the medium they are in. You can switch things around as long as you keep intact the essence of each character. I got a grade for how I feel Fox and Singer did.... F as in FAIL!

To me the points that I highlighted are the ones that I most identify as essential to telling a good X-men story. I'm thankful for the first two X-men movies and I think Fox needs to be credited for leading the way and where we are today so that has to be pointed out but with that said Fox and Singer have had the X-men property for 20 years- that's more than enough time to get there sh!t together, so with that said I am counting down the days till the X-men can fold into the MCU and I'm hoping I will finally get a movie that honors the X-men in a way I feel they haven't been yet.

Thanks for sharing your opinion and your story, i appreciate it. However (and for the record, i never said the X-Men franchise was without flaws) that does not mean that they are bad movies, or bad adaptations. They have kept the essence even changin a lot of stuff from a lot of things.

And this what i cannot for the life of me understand: Everybody is always complaining "oh yeah sony/fox/warner totally mishandles the stories and characters" but disney does this too, half of the mcu movies are bad, they have mishandled complete stories and characters, wasted big chances to do a lot of great stuff, yet they are praised as if they were the example of filmmaking quality and faithfulness to the source, they completely ignore all the stuff they get wrong, why?

You say that fox has yet to deliver the X-Men of the movie they deserve, but when has disney done that for any of the characters? They never did, the closest they got was with the Captain America trilogy and is still flawed, the complaints everybody has over anything that is not the mcu is all over the mcu, yet they seem to look the other side regarding all its flaws, and is not like the little good stuff they did overcomes all the bad stuff.

So i dont get it, complaining about what all companies including disney get wrong but saying that only disney get its right it makes no sense.