The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[dataSlave]

It is a success, obviously. I think you can make a reasonable case that it “ought to” have made a bit more (in the neighborhood of about $100 million more WW) but even so it’s still a massive hit.

I see TLJ as a success in stand alone terms. But not enough of a success when accounting for the purchase price of the franchise. Also not that great measured against other SW movies. TLJ is #6 out of the 8 Episodes when adjusted for inflation, beating Sith and AoC. Phantom Menace is #5 at $829 million. No realistic chance that TLJ will increase its domestic cume another 35% to match that.

 

[dataSlave]

It out-grossed Ultron by over $150 mil. I'd reckon of the two, domestic is more important to a studio than overseas numbers.

The box office has significantly changed. Movies like The Graduate used to make $100 mil domestically ($785 mill adjusted for inflation). I can't imagine a romantic comedy like that making that much today. Audiences have gotten used to only paying to see the big VFX films, and as such they've gotten used to them. It's a steady part of their moving going diet, and they're all playing on the same level. Only very rarely is there an unexpected breakout (like TFA). These big budget movies used to be exceptional, but now they're the norm.

The domestic box office has been slowly shrinking for 20 years. Yet the number of new releases has almost doubled in that time. In a shrinking market you either try to grab a bigger piece of the pie or you pursue niches with less competition. The rise of indie films, horror and the dude movie (like 12 strong) is part of the later strategy.

But too many films are trying to grab for the brass ring and ramping up costs to do so. The classic economic answer is consolidation. We've seen some of this with Disney's acquisitions of Lucasfilms, Pixar and Marvel Studios. We may see more of that if they also buy 20th Century Fox. But I don't imagine it can go too much farther before running into anti-trust issues and Fox might bring some heat on that front.

But in the meantime many films are catering to the large and growing overseas market. Earlier on this thread Blitzkrieg and I were discussing the rise of movies with high-speed chases, gunfights, CGI and big explosions. Those are things that Hollywood still does better than anyone else and need no translation for foreign audiences. But those things are all EXPENSIVE So as overseas revenue becomes more important to Hollywood, we should see more and more of those movies.

The Graduate specifically was both a romance and subversive social commentary. I don't think we'll see the like at the top of the box office again. Titanic was the closest thing to it in my lifetime. And that had a ton of action and CGI.

 

[Mandon Knight]

It is a success, obviously. I think you can make a reasonable case that it “ought to” have made a bit more (in the neighborhood of about $100 million more WW) but even so it’s still a massive hit.

Some on here are painting it that it's 'melted' under strain of 'lesser' films and not met Disney's expectations or expectations for a SW film.

That the money accumulated results in a failing.

If there is a 'shortfall' on TLJ, for me, it's on the domestic US front, not the overseas total.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

It won't hit 1.4 and probably not 1.35 billion either.

Sheesh! I bet Disney are not happy...

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I really don't get where $1.3 BILLION is not a success.

I don't think any sane person will deny that. 1.3B is a success. A really big one at that.

It's ridiculous, was Ep 8 ever going to do Ep 7 figures? No.

Well there are 10 users who thought Ep. VII & Ep. VIII will be in the same ballpark and 17 users considered beating TFA it a legit possibility.

I think most folks who does follow BO trends would have known that TLJ was locked to decrease from TFA. I was bullish on the movies' BO prospects before it released and I thought TLJ could end up around [750-760] million (in and around Avatar) in the domestic market. I was totally unsure about the OS market tho. But since all the SW movies tend to have an even split between domestic & OS, [740-750] million from the foreign market looked about right where Ep VIII was going to land. So I basically expected around 1.5 billion World-Wide. The domestic and OS OWs shattered all the conservative expectations tho and I thought F7 numbers were locked at that point. TLJ needed to do 3.2 times it's world-wide OW and around 60 million in China. I don't think achieving that multiplier during and after the holidays looked too much of a herculean task for a SW saga movie after that OW. Also, the initial pre-sales for TLJ in China actually looked good and on par with both Ragnarok and JL. So 60 million was still a possibility at that time. I'm just saying the signs were all there and TLJ could have done a good deal more than what it'll end up with.

But it still did a f**king lot. Most other franchises (even the most robust one right nao in MCU) would kill for these kind of numbers.

 

[dataSlave]

Sheesh! I bet Disney are not happy...

I doubt Disney expected to make less than half the profit on TLJ as they did on TFA.

 

[gerrym51]

I see TLJ as a success in stand alone terms. But not enough of a success when accounting for the purchase price of the franchise. Also not that great measured against other SW movies. TLJ is #6 out of the 8 Episodes when adjusted for inflation, beating Sith and AoC. Phantom Menace is #5 at $829 million. No realistic chance that TLJ will increase its domestic cume another 35% to match that.

I disagree-Disney owns the Star Wars rights -forever. It also owns the Indiana Jones rights forever.

It also owns Industrial light and magic-forever.

Just Like with Marvel and Pixar-owning these properties will be used by Disney long after we are deceased.

 

[Iceman]

Some on here are painting it that it's 'melted' under strain of 'lesser' films and not met Disney's expectations or expectations for a SW film.

That the money accumulated results in a failing.

If there is a 'shortfall' on TLJ, for me, it's on the domestic US front, not the overseas total.

The overseas number is quite run of the mill by today's standards while the domestic, even though vastly reduced from TFA, is still rarified territory.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I bet Disney is happy with it. As happy as what TFA made? No, but 1.3 is a success no matter how it is sliced.

 

[JOE]

I'm happy it pushed past 1.3B. Is it less than they were expecting? Sure. Is it a disappointment? Not by the farthest stretch of the imagination.

Just because it didn't do well as expected, doesn't mean it didn't succeed. If they expected 1.6-1.8B, coming up short doesn't make it a failure. It made double of JL's box office on a relatively similar budget and the DCeU is still trucking.

It's a win, a big win. Star Wars movies for years to come.

 

[Mjölnir]

Happiness with the result will depend entirely on whether it landed within the span of their expectations. Meeting (or exceeding) expectations is everything in business and investment.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Wall Street Journal - ‘The Last Jedi’ Loses Sales Momentum, Raising Concern for Disney
Film fell about $200 million short of some analysts’ forecasts in U.S. and Canada, flopped in China

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-la...omentum-raising-concern-for-disney-1517245312

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Actual:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$4.25M Weekend (Actual)
1,745 Screens / $2,437 Avg.
Weekend 7 / -35.1% Change
$610.79M... fb.me/R3WzXyPX

 

[dataSlave]

Let's look at what the extra $300-400 million would have meant if TLJ met expectations. The revenue side is easy:

$620 million domestic x 65% split = $403 million
$40 million China x 25% split = $10 million
$680 million foreign, ex-China x 40% = $272 million
total Disney split = $685 million


If we leave China at $40 million and have the RoW with the same percentages on $1.7 billion we get this:

$792 million domestic x 65% split = $515 million
$40 million China x 25% split = $10 million
$868 million foreign, ex-China x 40% = $347 million
total Disney split = $872 million


Now for $1.6 billion global cume:
$746 million domestic x 65% split = $485 million
$40 million China x 25% split = $10 million
$814 million foreign, ex-China x 40% = $326 million
total Disney split = $821 million

Just for fun, compare to TFA:$937 million domestic x 64% (yes it was lower) split = $600 million
$124 million China x 25% split = $31 million
$1,008 million foreign, ex-China x 40% = $403 million
total Disney split = $1,034 million

To be conseravative on costs makes the lower box office look relative more profitable. If we use a low-ball figure of $400 million for production and marketing for TLJ the gross profit to Disney is $285 million using the first set of assumptions. $1.7 billion would have produced a $485 million GP and $1.6 billion would yield $421 million GP. Those numbers are 70% and 48% higher than what seems to actually be occurring.
For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that production and marketing costs for TFA and TLJ are roughly comparable. TFA would have a GP of $634 million or 119% greater than TLJ. But as the costs escalate the differential grows larger.

If we use $500 million total for production and marketing then TLJ's gross profit will be around $185 million. It would have been $385 million with a $1.7 billion global cume and $321 million on $1.6 billion. Those numbers are 108% and 74% higher than TLJ will actually do using the same set of assumptions. TFA's $534 million GP using those numbers is nearly 3x times TLJ's.

So yes, 35% doesn't sound like that much. But the extra dollars are pure profit. With a high fixed cost project, the profit margin can easily double if it generates 25% more revenue and that's exactly what happened here. That doesn't even begin to consider the $150 million (and growing) annual cost of financing the original deal.

Yes there will be ancillaries. But those will also be much lower than TFA and probably RO as well. Remember toys and merchandise got cut in half. Audience reception measured by RT and IMDB is also colder than TFA and RO. So maybe DVD sales will equal RO at $77 million but they will be only a fraction of TFA's $183 million.

Looking at the total picture, Disney will probably make decent money on TLJ even including financing costs. But I don't think there is any way to look at that same picture and not see real problems with audience reception which is reflected in the short legs and merchandise sales. Maybe the DVD sales will prove me wrong but there is plenty of evidence that TLJ caused issues with the fan base.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Let's just say after this Kevin Fiege is #1 on Alan Horn's speed dial and not Kathleen Kennedy. Star Wars has been unseated as the defacto #1 brand in movies.

 

[Panacea]

I don't think any sane person will deny that. 1.3B is a success. A really big one at that.

In isolation it's a huge success, but in context a $700m drop from one movie to it's sequel will no doubt having a few alarm bells ringing at Disney HQ. If Solo bombs - which it very well could do - then heads will probably roll.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I'd put the over/under of Rian Johnson's trilogy actually happening at 60/40 in its favor right now, if Solo underperforms as well, then all bets are off.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Solo pessimistic track (if these in-between movies are really tethered to the 'height' of its predecessor):

Rogue One earned 56.82% of what TFA did domestically.
If Solo earns 56.82% of what TLJ does (current tracking based on last 7 days performance for $620.6M), it results in about $353M.
Rogue One earned 46.30% of what TFA did internationally.
If Solo earns 46.30% of what TLJ does (for the sake of example $713M), it results in about $330M.
Worldwide combined about $683M.

Rogue One earned about 85.75% (current tracking based on last 7 days performance for $620.6M) of what TLJ did domestically.
Rogue One earned about 73.48% (for the sake of example $713M) of what TLJ did internationally.

* NOTE: I ran these numbers last night based on the estimates before the updated TLJ actuals for the weekend which came in a tiny bit higher.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

"The Last Jedi" will continue from where "Force" left off. Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson has a "somewhat conservative" estimate of $1.9 billion in box-office haul for the film. He also expects the latest "Avengers" installment to bring in $1.3 billion.

http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Entertainment/wireStory/disney-hopes-blockbuster-newest-star-wars-51048299 (November 9, 2017)

MoffettNathanson’s Senior Research Analysts (Craig Moffett, Michael Nathanson, Adam Holt and Greg Melich) have each consistently been ranked the #1 analyst in their respective sectors by the Institutional Investor All-American Research Team, as well as by other leading surveys of institutional investors.

https://www.moffettnathanson.com/aboutus.aspx

Welp.

 

[Mandon Knight]

IW will do way more than $1.3 billion.

 

[Iceman]

He just got them the wrong way round lol. Could be bang on the money in that case. t:

 

[Shadow Moses]

IW will do way more than $1.3 billion.

Don't count your chickens

 

[Romannen]

Wall Street Journal - ‘The Last Jedi’ Loses Sales Momentum, Raising Concern for Disney
Film fell about $200 million short of some analysts’ forecasts in U.S. and Canada, flopped in China

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-la...omentum-raising-concern-for-disney-1517245312

Is it possible to read the article without subscribing to WSJ?

 

[gerrym51]

Is it possible to read the article without subscribing to WSJ?

there used to be ways around the WSJ paywall but they stopped working about a year ago.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

The problem isn't that TLJ didn't do TFA numbers, the problem is that it couldn't even beat TA1 or even Ultron WW.

It's not a problem. It just means Star Wars isn't as big a deal as it used to be.

Or put it this way:

Let's just say after this Kevin Fiege is #1 on Alan Horn's speed dial and not Kathleen Kennedy. Star Wars has been unseated as the defacto #1 brand in movies.

Go back in time to 2008 and say "The Marvel Avengers brand will be bigger than Star Wars!" You would get laughed at.