The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Warlock]

So this won't hit 1.5 billion? Wow... was not expecting that.

It won't hit 1.4 and probably not 1.35 billion either.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@boxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$4.18M Weekend (Est.)
1,745 Screens / $2,397 Avg.
Weekend 7 / -36.1% Change
$610.72M

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Mojo:

Domestic: $610,725,821 46.6%
+ Foreign: $700,700,000 53.4%
= Worldwide: $1,311,425,821

 

[Iceman]

Winding down now. Can't believe Jumanji is still doing $16m weekends.

 

[Lord]

Interesting to see it did less than Avengers 2. That means Star Wars as a franchise is right now as strong as The Avengers. In least that puts things in perspective. SW isn't above all the competition as many of us first though back when Force Awakens was cracking 2 billion. It's still gonna do impressive numbers, since the only real competition still playing on the same level are Avengers, Jurassic World films and Fast & Furious.

Interesting how things can change so much. 10 years ago, the biggest film franchises competing were Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean, with Nolan's Batman trilogy and Bay's Transformers slowly rising to the same level. All the current big leagues were on an entirely different level back then.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

6th Weekend (all-time domestic unadjusted)
#5 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle ($16.4M estimate)
#12 Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($14.1M)
#102 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($7.2M)
#137 Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($6.6M)

7th Weekend (all-time domestic unadjusted)
#10 Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($11.1M)
#108 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($5.3M)
#190 Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($4.2M estimate)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Winding down now. Can't believe Jumanji is still doing $16m weekends.

Jumanji is a bona-fide box office phenomena. At this point it’s going to go over $900 million WW, and $1 billion is still on the table. I’ve been looking back through mojo and I believe we could see the first-ever instance of two directly competitive $1 billion+ films opening on back-to-back weekends. It’s a testament to how good both films are that neither wiped the other out, though there’s no doubt in my mind that Jumanji cut TLJ off at the knees, legs-wise.

 

[dataSlave]

@boxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$4.18M Weekend (Est.)
1,745 Screens / $2,397 Avg.
Weekend 7 / -36.1% Change
$610.72M

Comparable figure for RO at this point were:
$5.27 mil for w/e #7
2,049 screens / $2,574 avg
w/e #7: -26.8%
$510.2 mil cumulative

RO had almost $12 million from the end of w/e #7 to the end of its theatrical run. With TLJ having fewer screens and fewer dollars per screen, $10 million seems like a reasonable number from here to the finish line.

 

[Mandon Knight]

It won't hit 1.4 and probably not 1.35 billion either.

It may crawl to $1.4 billion, possibly, highly doubtful. Just depends on how long it's allowed to stay in cinema's. Possibly has a closing date of around end of Feb.

 

[Romannen]

So this won't hit 1.5 billion? Wow... was not expecting that.

Still...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...dwide-is-still-a-win-for-disney/#764c4973f2d3

 

[Mjölnir]

Still...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...dwide-is-still-a-win-for-disney/#764c4973f2d3

It seems like a very weird thing to brush over that TLJ has a disappointing outcome, even though it has a big profit from a general view, with a completely different point. Has anyone ever questioned that Disney is doing fine? If not, and I don't think people have, then the article is pointless.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's really interesting that TLJ dropped big in it's OS markets this weekend with estimates (actuals will most likely increase). It dropped 52% from last weekend. R1 dropped 44.3% on the same weekend last year. Last weekend was totally different tho because TLJ dropped just 39.1% while R1 had a much bigger drop with 52.4%. If TLJ follows R1's legs from here on out, it'll top out at 673.25 million minus China. Add 41 million from the middle kingdom and the international total becomes 714.2 million.

RO had almost $12 million from the end of w/e #7 to the end of its theatrical run. With TLJ having fewer screens and fewer dollars per screen, $10 million seems like a reasonable number from here to the finish line.

I was thinking more like 8.55 million. R1 added 2.27 times it's 7th weekend figure after it's 45th day at the dbo. With the same multiplier, TLJ would finish with 620.25 million. But just like the whole of last week where TLJ finished with 90.4% of R1's gross, I'm thinking the former will stabilize around the same percentage for the rest of the run. In that case the final domestic total becomes 619.3 million.

It may crawl to $1.4 billion, possibly, highly doubtful.

1.4 billion is dead. Add the OS and domestic totals from the previous parts of this post and you'll get [714.2+619.3] = 1.33 billion and this is the ceiling atm.

 

[Iceman]

Jumanji is a bona-fide box office phenomena. At this point it’s going to go over $900 million WW, and $1 billion is still on the table. I’ve been looking back through mojo and I believe we could see the first-ever instance of two directly competitive $1 billion+ films opening on back-to-back weekends. It’s a testament to how good both films are that neither wiped the other out, though there’s no doubt in my mind that Jumanji cut TLJ off at the knees, legs-wise.

It's crazy where it is now given where it started. The final multiplier is going to be insane. And it is very impressive that 2 films opening next to each other finish with $2.3B or so in spite of each other.

 

[dataSlave]

It seems like a very weird thing to brush over that TLJ has a disappointing outcome, even though it has a big profit from a general view, with a completely different point. Has anyone ever questioned that Disney is doing fine? If not, and I don't think people have, then the article is pointless.

It seem like Mendelson is damning with faint praise here. He might not want to piss off his contacts in the business by being too frank.

 

[Elayis]

Interesting to see it did less than Avengers 2. That means Star Wars as a franchise is right now as strong as The Avengers. In least that puts things in perspective. SW isn't above all the competition as many of us first though back when Force Awakens was cracking 2 billion. It's still gonna do impressive numbers, since the only real competition still playing on the same level are Avengers, Jurassic World films and Fast & Furious.

Interesting how things can change so much. 10 years ago, the biggest film franchises competing were Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean, with Nolan's Batman trilogy and Bay's Transformers slowly rising to the same level. All the current big leagues were on an entirely different level back then.

It out-grossed Ultron by over $150 mil. I'd reckon of the two, domestic is more important to a studio than overseas numbers.

The box office has significantly changed. Movies like The Graduate used to make $100 mil domestically ($785 mill adjusted for inflation). I can't imagine a romantic comedy like that making that much today. Audiences have gotten used to only paying to see the big VFX films, and as such they've gotten used to them. It's a steady part of their moving going diet, and they're all playing on the same level. Only very rarely is there an unexpected breakout (like TFA). These big budget movies used to be exceptional, but now they're the norm.

 

[regnak]

It seem like Mendelson is damning with faint praise here. He might not want to piss off his contacts in the business by being too frank.

Isn't he the one who was basically saying, "Ignore the bad legs it is 2nd fastest earning movie EVAR!" That was my read between the lines translation of a puff piece on the 2nd or 3rd weekend.

 

[Warlock]

Isn't he the one who was basically saying, "Ignore the bad legs it is 2nd fastest earning movie EVAR!" That was my read between the lines translation of a puff piece on the 2nd or 3rd weekend.

Yep, that's the one.

"Nothing to see here, move along people! All is well, SW is a big success!!!"

 

[Zant]

It's crazy where it is now given where it started. The final multiplier is going to be insane. And it is very impressive that 2 films opening next to each other finish with $2.3B or so in spite of each other.

Yeah, Deadpool 2 and Han Solo film are going to coexist just fine. Seems like studios are not afraid of Star Wars anymore. Not sure why Wonder Woman 2 ran away from Episode 9.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, Deadpool 2 and Han Solo film are going to coexist just fine. Seems like studios are not afraid of Star Wars anymore. Not sure why Wonder Woman 2 ran away from Episode 9.

I guess those films might have more crossover with SW than Jumanji. J3 certainly not running scared of IX!

 

[Mandon Knight]

I really don't get where $1.3 BILLION is not a success. It's ridiculous, was Ep 8 ever going to do Ep 7 figures ? No.

 

[Iceman]

I really don't get where $1.3 BILLION is not a success. It's ridiculous, was Ep 8 ever going to do Ep 7 figures ? No.

VII’s numbers were a freak of course. But Star Wars Episode VIII should be beating AoU WW, a non-perfectly received Avengers sequel, at least.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The problem isn't that TLJ didn't do TFA numbers, the problem is that it couldn't even beat TA1 or even Ultron WW.

 

[Iceman]

Either TLJ should be beating Avengers sequels (if we say that both TFA and TA were freaks) or SW is not on a different level worldwide than these films. I think the first was true but the second is what the truth will be going forward unless future SW films are universally loved. I'm expecting IW and A4 to beat AoU and will consider it a disappointment if they don't so SW Episode films should be held to at least the same standards.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I guess those films might have more crossover with SW than Jumanji. J3 certainly not running scared of IX!

D2 and Solo have some shared audience, but one is a family friendly action/adventure film, the other is a raunchy R-rated cbm. They should be just fine.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I really don't get where $1.3 BILLION is not a success. It's ridiculous, was Ep 8 ever going to do Ep 7 figures ? No.

It is a success, obviously. I think you can make a reasonable case that it “ought to” have made a bit more (in the neighborhood of about $100 million more WW) but even so it’s still a massive hit.