The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

One would expect a more traditional heroic story, but then one could argue that the 3rd installment would have been that type of story anyway.

I think the main challenges will be the characters and trying to do something that doesn't just feel like it is undoing all of Johnson's ideas in this movie, and returning to the usual Star Wars tropes.

The surviving heroic characters, to my mind, have not been developed sufficiently, given that we have reached the concluding installment of the trilogy. They also haven't spent much time together.

So I think the place to start would be a team story that really allows Finn, Rey, Rose and Poe to go on an adventure together. Get back to the basics of character development and really give those actors something meaty to work with, which I think they really deserved to have more of in this movie.

The larger plot question of what to do with the main conflict is a trickier one. Logically, the rebels will need to defeat the First Order. But how can that be done without simply feeling like a retread?

I'm not sure. Definitely an interesting challenge for the writers.

Agreed, and it's the relationships between them all that haven't been developed enough for me. They all have a good link with Finn but otherwise the others haven't had enough interactions going into the last film. Hope they fix that in the best way for the final film.

 

[Agent Orange]

We're all wondering where Abrams can take the story from here, but keep in mind that he's known all about Rian Johnson's script and ideas for the better part of 2 years now and he loved them. Apparently he submitted his story pitch before the new year so he's not scrambling to put something together. They've had a year to think about Carrie's absence as well.

The best course of action is to explain in the crawl that several years have gone by and The First Order has grown to Galactic Empire levels under Kylo Ren. Establish a firm team/relationship with Rey, Poe, Finn and Rose. I don't know how JJ is going to have Rey and co. defeat The First Order's new government in one movie, but hey, the Galactic Empire's defeat was abrupt in 1983.

 

[Iceman]

We're all wondering where Abrams can take the story from here, but keep in mind that he's known all about Rian Johnson's script and ideas for the better part of 2 years now and he loved them. Apparently he submitted his story pitch before the new year so he's not scrambling to put something together. They've had a year to think about Carrie's absence as well.

The best course of action is to explain in the crawl that several years have gone by and The First Order has grown to Galactic Empire levels under Kylo Ren. Establish a firm team/relationship with Rey, Poe, Finn and Rose. I don't know how JJ is going to have Rey and co. defeat The First Order's new government in one movie, but hey, the Galactic Empire's defeat was abrupt in 1983.

Good points. I'm expecting a good passage of time between TLJ and IX to make these things possible.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Lawrence Kasdan: “[J .J. Abrams and I have] not really [sketched out the next episodes]. [The Force Awakens] sets up a lot of stuff. There’s a lot of people to deal with. And Rian took on that job and he’s going to change it, because he’s Rian. And I’m sure Colin will change what Rian does…. These movies will all be so different. Rian Johnson is a friend of mine — he’s going to make some weird thing. If you’ve seen Rian’s work, you know it’s not going be like anything that’s ever been in Star Wars.” “We talked about [the ending of the new trilogy] — and there’s a certain thing that people who are involved with it feel should happen. There’s a kind of movement that happens. But it’s not in your control. It’s going to veer off with Rian, and it’s going to veer off another way with Colin.” (December 22, 2015)

J. J. Abrams: “I had no intention to return. But when the opportunity presented itself to finish a story that we had begun with these new characters, to tell the last chapter of their story, it felt like there was a chance to do it in a way where we could go beyond, and do better than we did in [Episode] Seven. I learned so much in that movie and I saw that this was a chance to sort of realize something that we hadn’t quite achieved – and part of that was it was simply the beginning of these new characters and their story. The opportunity to sort of take what we had learned, to take the feeling of who these characters are and what they are and give them a final chapter that felt in the spirit of what we begun? It was too delicious of an opportunity to pass up.” (December 6, 2017)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ's 4th OS weekend came in higher than the initial estimates at 65.9 million (estimates were 64.7 million). That's a solid increase from estimates and a very good overall weekend. The drop from the 3rd weekend is close to what TFA and R1 achieved during their runs at similar point.

 

[Agent Orange]

Good points. I'm expecting a good passage of time between TLJ and IX to make these things possible.

I'm not overly thrilled with JJ's return but these are his characters so it's apropos that he should get the final word on them. He gets to cement how they're remembered. Not a lot of creators get that luxury in the Hollywood machine.

 

[Iceman]

I'm not overly thrilled with JJ's return but these are his characters so it's apropos that he should get the final word on them. He gets to cement how they're remembered. Not a lot of creators get that luxury in the Hollywood machine.

Yeah I'd like to see how he wants the characters to finish this series.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Yes, he is an online guy who reviews movies. Jurassic Park III was one of them, and it was hilarious

His shows are kind of half reviews/half comedy sketch shows. I really enjoy them. Did you see the one he did on The Last Jedi with Chris Stuckman?

 

[Spider-Fan]

His shows are kind of half reviews/half comedy sketch shows. I really enjoy them. Did you see the one he did on The Last Jedi with Chris Stuckman?

I did!!! I liked both that and the one he did for TFA with Cinema Snob.

I think my favorite may still be the one for the It mini-series.

 

[InCali]

Why would they "re-evaluate"? Lucasfilm/Disney knows TFA was a special "planets all aligning perfectly" situation the same way we do.

1.2/1.3 billion is still basically "nothin' to see here". So it's the 12th/13th biggest movie ever instead of the second. They might have expected this to be 5th or 6th biggest ever.

It's a drop, it's probably a disappointment. They're not going to start mandating "course corrections" or whatever upon Kennedy and Abrams for IX though.

They'll re-evaluate because something about TLJ evidently didn't resonate with a core group of fans and I'm sure the brain trust is always looking for ways to improve. I get that TFA was a perfect storm and have said so on more than one occasion. I also said (before release of TLJ) that I expected it to make the least (of 7-9) at the BO.

To not re-evaluate (or maybe constantly evaluate is a better way of putting it??) is, well, stupid.

I doubt they'll be calling in Joss for reshoots and they aren't rushing into filming on the heels of TLJ. LOL. That's not where I was going. I'm just saying that I'm sure they're looking at TLJ and deciding if they want to make tweaks and, if so, where.

 

[gerrym51]

I did!!! I liked both that and the one he did for TFA with Cinema Snob.

I think my favorite may still be the one for the It mini-series.

I like watching Jeremy Jahns youtube reviews. Usually hilarious especially when he play's 'doofus Jeremy'.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I did!!! I liked both that and the one he did for TFA with Cinema Snob.

I think my favorite may still be the one for the It mini-series.

I think my favorite was Batman v Superman. That one was a riot! When Doomsday showed up I was laughing for the rest of the video.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think my favorite was Batman v Superman. That one was a riot! When Doomsday showed up I was laughing for the rest of the video.

That's another of my favorites! I also loved the Wonder Woman review. I was in stitches when Ares came in, LOL!

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That's another of my favorites! I also loved the Wonder Woman review. I was in stitches when Ares came in, LOL!

Yeah and when Batman and Superman kept showing up to try and show Wonder Woman how to be a "real DC hero."

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

One would expect a more traditional heroic story, but then one could argue that the 3rd installment would have been that type of story anyway.

I think the main challenges will be the characters and trying to tell a story that doesn't just feel like it is undoing all of Johnson's ideas in this movie, and returning to the usual Star Wars tropes.

The surviving heroic characters, to my mind, have not been developed sufficiently, given that we have reached the concluding installment of the trilogy. They also haven't spent much time together.

So I think the place to start would be a team story that really allows Finn, Rey, Rose and Poe to go on an adventure together. Get back to the basics of character development and really give those actors something meaty to work with, which I think they really deserved to have more of in this movie.

The larger plot question of what to do with the main conflict is a trickier one. Logically, the rebels will need to defeat the First Order. But how can that be done without simply feeling like a retread?

I'm not sure. Definitely an interesting challenge for the writers.

Agreed on the surviving heroic characters, they started off great with TFA, but TLJ didn’t really take any of them anywhere.

It’s yet another reason I think they shouldn’t have killed off Luke in this movie.

 

[sueb1863]

Too bad they can't do two more movies with this story instead of just one more. It feels like the characters need more time to gel and more aspects of the narrative need to be explored before going into the last act and resolution.

 

[Marvolo]

Yeah I think from the start they should have planned to have 6 Episode films dealing with the New Republic, Rey, the First Order, Kylo, Snoke, the end of the OT characters, and the rebuilding of the Jedi Order.

 

[Flemm]

On that point, one other odd thing about this movie is that, in spite of its many elements that are intended to undercut or avoid the usual story points for Star Wars, it has essentially left the trilogy's overall story in exactly the same place that it always is: a small group of rebels against an overwhelmingly powerful, evil empire.

They could open the next movie with almost exactly the same shot that opened the first Star Wars movie, and it would feel like an organic continuation of The Last Jedi: some rebels on a ship, being chased by the more powerful bad guys' ship.

So that is... a little strange, to say the least.

 

[Marvolo]

Well hopefully Episode 9 will open after a time jump and in an unexpected way.

 

[Flemm]

Well hopefully Episode 9 will open after a time jump and in an unexpected way.

It's probably just a product of Johnson not writing the next movie, and wanting to hand things off in a reasonably organized manner.

There is a villain. All the relevant good guys are on the same ship.

That makes it possible for the next writer to do whatever.

I still find it to be a little ironic, though. I agree that some type of jump to a different scenario makes sense.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Yeah I think from the start they should have planned to have 6 Episode films dealing with the New Republic, Rey, the First Order, Kylo, Snoke, the end of the OT characters, and the rebuilding of the Jedi Order.

I definitely feel at least 1 more movie is needed between Episodes 8 and 9. As I say, Finn, Poe and Rey just didn't seem to develop much in TLJ.

 

[Filmfan93]

Any chance of TLJ reaching $1.4 billion? Or $1.3 billion?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any chance of TLJ reaching $1.4 billion? Or $1.3 billion?

1.3 is a lock. 1.4 is a no.

 

[spiderman2]

This is interesting shows how much WW both TFA and RO had made by the time weekend 4 was over and how that compares to this movie and also about how it has a slight shoot at 1.4 billion or something. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...y-become-leggier-than-rogue-one/#1a052bd27f0e

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Update from Gitesh:

#StarWarsTheLastJedi* climbs to $576.9M dom, $646M intl & $1.223B worldwide. Shd pass #Fast8 tomm for #11 all-time global. Top 10 intl mkts:

UK $103.9M
Germany $74.2M
France $58.2M
Japan $54.9M
Australia $40.5M
China $33M
Spain $23.4M
Brazil $18.2M
Italy $17.7M
Russia $15.8M