The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Agent Orange]

Y'all acting like this is a bad box office...

It's a fantastic box office. Even more so considering it had to overcome a massive hissy fit from the fandom. And considering it was never going to match TFA's numbers, and considering China seems to have very little interest in watching Star Wars in theaters.

Critical acclaim and the top 2017 box office, domestically and internationally, are titles that I'm sure Disney and LucasFilm are happy with.

 

[Warlock]

Y'all acting like this is a bad box office...

It's a fantastic box office. Even more so considering it had to overcome a massive hissy fit from the fandom. And considering it was never going to match TFA's numbers, and considering China seems to have very little interest in watching Star Wars in theaters.

600m+ domestic and 1.3b+ WW is a fantastic box office, no doubt. But you are deliberately ignoring almost EVERYONE's predictions for this film were 750m+ domestic and 1.7 billion+ world wide and therefore beating The Avengers and Jurassic World which didn't happen especially after the second biggest domestic opening weekend ever. Here are some media predictions

Deadline predicted 750m+ domestic alone and Box Office Pro predicted 1.63 billion WW.

The Observer predicted 1.7 billion

http://observer.com/2017/10/star-wars-last-jedi-box-office-predictions-force-awakens-lucasfilm/

Wall Street Journal predicted it could rival TFA at 2.1 billion

https://www.wsj.com/articles/star-w...ning-behind-only-the-force-awakens-1513536619

Forbes' (optimistic) pessimistic prediction was the most reasonable at 1.45 billion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ssimistic-box-office-prediction/#32a092ca5f1b

Secondly look at the poll for this prediction thread, almost 90% (87%) predicted it would make between 1.4 billion and 2 billion+. Only 13% predicted it would be below 1.4 billion, thus at a final take of just over 1.3 billion, it will not meet the expectations of the general public or the media that is certain, thus it underperformed.

You can make excuses all day long, some of which are actually justified however hindsight is 20-20 so it's easy to say. The simple truth of the matter is it didn't do as well as expected, and it actually pissed off/disappointed a lot of people. Whether you agree with their sentiments is not the issue, but denying the existence of an angry, large portion of the star wars fan-base ("it had to overcome a massive hissy fit from fandom"), is to be willfully ignorant and at odds with reality. Ignoring this fan base or telling them flat out that they are wrong for not liking the film would be a big mistake financially and may have already caused irreparable harm to the future of the SW franchise.

It is a STAR WARS EPISODE, not a spin off ala Rogue One. It should make bank. Was it generally expected to bring in less than TFA, yes it was. Was it expected to be this much lower though, no, no it wasn't. The proof of this is verified by the Disney and SW apologists in positive spin mode/damage control, as evidenced by the multitude of articles everywhere in the last couple of weeks saying things like "Why Star Wars: The Last Jedi isn't a box office failure" Vulture, "Star Wars isn't a disappointment, no really, here's why!" and "Star Wars won't make as much as TFA and that's ok" "Why Star Wars: The Last Jedi's Huge Box Office Drop isn't as bad as it seems"Cinemablend etc., ad nauseam.

And the "critical acclaim" is at odds with the general audience reception and word of mouth. The different is good mantra, and we did the unexpected in the name of diversity politics and subversiveness, was a divisive strategy to say the least.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Y'all acting like this is a bad box office...

But I didn't say that the absolute number TLJ will end up with is bad. The weekend figure is awful and that's all I was saying. I'm not happy with these numbers since I liked the movie myself and I would have liked to see it do more or at-least perform better at the domestic box office.

I don't know if you include me in that 'doom 'n gloom' camp but I'm 100% certain that everyone has their perspective at the right place when they say TLJ has under-performed at the DBO. The movie opened just 11.3% behind TFA while being more back-loaded throughout the OW in-spite of being a direct sequel to the biggest movie ever. Everything pointed to a far better post OW BO run.

I mean TLJ has had the most conducive environment to rake in huge numbers from the BO. From the extended holiday stretch due to delayed winter break (even TFA and R1 didn't have the benefit of these), MoviePass, exclusive rights to all IMAX and theater brand PLFs for 4 straight weeks etc. Exhibitors were under duress to keep TLJ in maximum number of screens. They couldn't give a showtime to a better performer to roll with Disney's mandate even when the other movie could potentially give them more in terms of revenue and that too without the biggest auditoriums/screens.

It's a fantastic box office.

Yes, it is. I've said that before as well. No one can deny that the final figure is still amazing.

Even more so considering it had to overcome a massive hissy fit from the fandom. And considering it was never going to match TFA's numbers

No one in their right mind thought TLJ was going to match TFA. I was wildly optimistic about Ep. VIII's BO prospects and even then I thought (750-760) million was the ceiling. I sincerely think that anything north 700 million would have been a very good result with the OW.

Even with the incredible OW, 700 million would have been very good for a sequel. Then it would have dropped close to 26% but still managed a multiplier above 3.0. It's insane that TLJ will miss a 3.0 multiplier in the plum December slot. TFA & R1 achieved those milestone on 18th and 23rd day respectively. Outright flops or movies with horrible WoM are the only ones who doesn't get to 3.0 multiplier in December. Even Avengers and Jurassic World managed to sneak past a 3.0 multiplier and they were summer releases (JW had really crazy competition in the wild summer of '15).

China seems to have very little interest in watching Star Wars in theaters.

Nah. Asians (apart from Japan) are more ambivalent on SW. JJ, Gareth and nao Rian just failed to ignite the collective interest.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah the original films weren't even released theatrically in China. When TFA came out they showed the originals at a festival but that was it. It's never been a thing for them like it is elsewhere.

 

[spiderman2]

It's bad because because it's not Force Awakens level box office. Oh well.

Its not because we are not getting force awakens level box office it is bad because we are looking at a 600-700 million drop from TFA that is a lot and after its OW its drops have been high. Its bad because it is not going to have a multipler of 3 something that should not be that hard for a December movie. If the movie had done around 1.6-1.8 billion it would be less then TFA but not a crazy drop. Its bad because based of its OW it should have had a realistic change at 650-700 USA. Its bad because its multipler is going to be much lower then even R1.

 

[Agent Orange]

Apparently I'm an anomaly as an older Star Wars fan (who wore out three generations of VHS tapes) because I loved the hell out of it. I'm not convinced that it really suffered amongst the general audience either. Just a segment of loud fanatics.

On a more cynical note - everybody and their mother saw The Force Awakens but I think that a lot of people have overestimated it's overall reception. Personally, three people who I would count as Star Wars fans told me, quote, "I'll wait for Netflix because I didn't like the last one." My brother wasn't going to go to TLJ right away because he didn't care for VII. He changed his mind when I went for tickets.

If you take into account ppl who didn't care for VII (I was alright with it but it didn't stick with me or anything) and the people who didn't go back for seconds on VIII, well, this box office doesn't surprise me. Ultimately it sold more tickets than Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith and Rogue One.

Disney and LucasFilm will need to be vigilant moving forward because there's a lot more competition for eyeballs and attention nowadays. Movies and television.

 

[Silver Surfer]

No one expected this to match TFA, but no one, and I mean no one saw it coming under Ultron WW by a 100 million. Also, it is not the highest grossing movie of the year overseas, BatB has it beat by almost a 100 million.

 

[Agent Orange]

I'm getting a kick out of Disney competing for box office glory with... themselves.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Its not because we are not getting force awakens level box office it is bad because we are looking at a 600-700 million drop from TFA that is a lot and after its OW its drops have been high. Its bad because it is not going to have a multipler of 3 something that should not be that hard for a December movie. If the movie had done around 1.6-1.8 billion it would be less then TFA but not a crazy drop. Its bad because based of its OW it should have had a realistic change at 650-700 USA. Its bad because its multipler is going to be much lower then even R1.

I don't think TLJ has bad WoM let alone a horrible WoM.

But it has be mixed otherwise the dailies and weekends would have better even if slightly. The movie did burn off a lot of demand on OW plus it's also understandable that a sequel will do less than the first movie. Even R1 could be considered as a 1st time movie for many so it played like an original movie and reached a 3.43 multiplier. But missing a 3.0 multiplier in December (where a blockbuster will have plenty of wiggle room to do well) isn't really good.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm getting a kick out of Disney competing for box office glory with... themselves.

Yup. At the end of the day Disney is still laughing all the way to the bank and in 2019 they will stamp their unprecedented domination of the market

 

[dataSlave]

It's bad because because it's not Force Awakens level box office. Oh well.

A bit of nuance please. I have repeatedly stated that the OW essentially guaranteed that TLJ would be a success. The problem is that it is only a moderate success. Since the first week, the domestic BO for TLJ has looked very much like RO. I can't imagine Disney is happy with that result. Updated projections for this w/e are that it will fall well below RO and several of us have noted that such a result would be sub-optimal.

The China result is an unmitigated failure. Disney worked to ensure TLJ had more screens than any competing film. Yet OW there couldn't beat out the 2nd w/e of the 3rd sequel to a local rom-com. And now over 90% of the screens are shifting to something else. We saw huge drops domestically after OW. They would have been even larger if Disney did not have the muscle to force cinemas to lock in 4,400 screens for a month.

I still think the critics lost a ton of credibility here. They universally praised TLJ when a significant segment of the audience hated it. If I am correct that will affect the opening of Solo significantly. Basing my estimate off RT audience score and a personal sample of about 50 SW fans I would guess the OW for Solo will be 25-30% smaller than for TLJ. That's from 10% that absolutely hated TLJ and felt deceived by the critics and another 25% who were disappointed but to a lesser degree. I would guess half of them will take a wait and see attitude, plus there being only a 5 month window to let demand for the new movie build.

 

[dataSlave]

No one expected this to match TFA, but no one, and I mean no one saw it coming under Ultron WW by a 100 million. Also, it is not the highest grossing movie of the year overseas, BatB has it beat by almost a 100 million.

Right now TLJ is in the #5 position for 2017 movies in overseas box office. It's a real long shot to pass any of the movies ahead of it. Outside shot at B&B ($760 million) and DM3 ($770). No shot at Wolf Warrior 2 ($868) or Fate of the Furious ($1,010). That's Asia talking.

 

[Agent Orange]

If I were a professional critic I'd find the idea or insinuation that I somehow "deceived" audiences insulting and I wouldn't hesitate to lash back. I've seen so many tweets attacking professional critics directly - insulting their knowledge of plot, their knowledge of structure, their knowledge of characterization etc.

Some critics are poor, yes, (I'm looking at Travers and Roeper) but a vast majority of these folks know what they're talking about when it comes to film. They're educated on the subject. They're not approaching their critique from a purely visceral level or *cough* how many "plot holes" a film may have (I think that a lot of folks have, heh, lost the plot on plot holes anyway).

 

[Blitzkrieg]

4 day estimate has been updated and it's at 14.7 million. It also means that TLJ will finish with 621.46 million if it keeps pace with R1 from here on out.

 

[dataSlave]

If I were a professional critic I'd find the idea or insinuation that I somehow "deceived" audiences insulting and I wouldn't hesitate to lash back. I've seen so many tweets attacking professional critics directly - insulting their knowledge of plot, their knowledge of structure, their knowledge of characterization etc.

Some critics are poor, yes, (I'm looking at Travers and Roeper) but a vast majority of these folks know what they're talking about when it comes to film. They're educated on the subject. They're not approaching their critique from a purely visceral level or *cough* how many "plot holes" a film may have (I think that a lot of folks have, heh, lost the plot on plot holes anyway).

I am simply reporting on the feelings of a substantial part of the SW fans that I know. Then extrapolating from those feelings to probable changes in behavior that might result. The vast gulf between fan and critical reception of TLJ will make many fans more likely to ignore the critics in the future. And consequently more likely to wait for WoM from friends and family before flocking to the theater. If that is correct OW will be smaller but drops will be smaller as well if the film is any good.

 

[Agent Orange]

Fan social media posts on The Force Awakens have been pretty toxic for the better part of two years as well. A chunk of the fanbase has concluded that "The Mouse" is evil and the even the prequels are better because they're "true" Star Wars. Why? Because George made them.

Aside from Rogue One's safe fan service Disney isn't going to win those people over. They've made up their minds.

 

[Warlock]

Fan social media posts on The Force Awakens have been pretty toxic for the better part of two years as well. A chunk of the fanbase has concluded that "The Mouse" is evil and the even the prequels are better because they're "true" Star Wars. Why? Because George made them.

Aside from Rogue One's safe fan service Disney isn't going to win those people over. They've made up their minds.

I think it was entirely possible to make vastly different movies to the first two they've made (TFA/TLJ especially) with more fan service in mind, and still please the general audience. What occurred however, was the polar opposite. Sure some original SW fans are still happy with the product, but ask yourself if the angry fan backlash was entirely uncalled for? I think that it wasn't.

Personally sure, I really disliked the film and know a lot of people who agree; however I've also spoken to some people that liked it, and some that didn't care either way. However if you were making a movie trilogy, surely you'd prefer to have the vast majority of the audience in your favour, especially the hardcore fans who bring the majority of repeat business/viewings? Why deliberately shoot yourself and future releases in the foot? It doesn't make sense, financial or otherwise.

 

[Zant]

The bigger than expected drop from the Force Awakens is the real worry. If Disney still wants to release annual Star Wars films, then its only a matter of time before they start peaking at 700 million worldwide or even lower. They will need China in the long run.

 

[gerrym51]

the worry is not that it is profitable-because it will have a big profit-

the worry is that it is the BvS of the Star Wars franchise.


until the next one comes out-Solo does not count-too soon to tell.

the one advantage is unlike JL SW9 has not already started shooting. Changes can be made.

I for one think Jedi Force projections are an interesting power. Livens things up.

We will see.

 

[gerrym51]

4 day estimate has been updated and it's at 14.7 million. It also means that TLJ will finish with 621.46 million if it keeps pace with R1 from here on out.

this movie constantly underperforms predictions. Even if the predictions keep dropping.

 

[regnak]

If I were a professional critic I'd find the idea or insinuation that I somehow "deceived" audiences insulting and I wouldn't hesitate to lash back.

So what? That won't make a single one of those people listen to you. AAMOF it is far more likely to make some people who did say, "That guy is full of it." and not listen to you either.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ERCboxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI ($1.264B) passed Disney's BEAUTY AND THE BEAST ($1.263B) to become the highest grossing 2017 release of the world.

 

[dataSlave]

So what? That won't make a single one of those people listen to you. AAMOF it is far more likely to make some people who did say, "That guy is full of it." and not listen to you either.

Exactly. The critics' actual motives are irrelevant. If somebody I trust tells me something is great and I think it sucks after seeing it I won't be listening to that person's opinions in the future. That certainly constrains Disney's ability to create pre-release hype for future SW movies.

 

[sueb1863]

Apparently I'm an anomaly as an older Star Wars fan (who wore out three generations of VHS tapes) because I loved the hell out of it.

I did, too, and I saw the first one 13 times when it came out in 1977. Saw ESB and RotJ in theaters, too. Really enjoyed TLJ and am very curious to see what they do in IX.

I do agree that Disney should rethink the 'one Star Wars movie a year' idea. One every other year is better, or release one a year for two years and then take a year "off". What happens with Solo will probably signal their future course.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

New estimate for the 3 day weekend from Disney: $11,275,000

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/952567544816259072

They think it'll make more money than RO on Monday, though it doesn't fit the trend (down below RO for the 7 days before Monday by 11%.)

The Last Jedi (estimates)
Friday: $2,723,000
Saturday: $5,081,000
Sunday: $3,471,000
Monday: $3,445,000

Rogue One
Friday: $3,260,705
Saturday: $5,757,579
Sunday: $4,449,905
Monday: $3,338,523

The Force Awakens
Friday: $6,328,954
Saturday: $11,028,514
Sunday: $8,984,649
Monday: $6,678,148