The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[TheVileOne]

Any beloved movie will always have detractors, some more annoying than others. It was this forum that coined the catchphrase, "Redhead to Heaven 2007" after Spider-Man 2.

Social media just makes them louder.

 

[Agent Orange]

The first comment that I heard when I walked out of Spider-Man 2 in 2004?

"That was horrible. The first one was so much better. I wasn't expecting to watch a chick flick."

I'm completely serious.

Spidey 2 is in my top 3 superhero films.

I agree about Apes having a drop of like 220 million was odd. Normally if a movie in a franchise makes less then the one before it is either a reboot something that always turns people away or it is considered much worse then the one before it in the franchise or the one before was the first one in the franchise so it had the whole being a new thing on its side. War was one of those very few movies that had a big drop from the one before with out being either a reboot or with out the movie being considered a much worse movie then the one before has War got even better reviews then dawn. Funny thing is that number 6 movie if not for this web site and its forum I would have never even heard of that movie before lol. Even though a MCU movie didn't make a billion or more this year still 4 of the top 10 boxoffice movies of 2017 are still Disney movies + a movie like Coco is at 621 million and like most animated movies is showing good legs has it is only around 5 million or so away from a multipler of 4.0.

No doubt. The MCU still dominates the Top 10.

The biggest embarrassment of 2017 was Justice League. Critically and commercially. And as a lifelong fan of those characters it hurts me that I didn't care about it. At all. Those characters deserve so much more.

 

[spiderman2]

The first comment that I heard when I walked out of Spider-Man 2 in 2004?

"That was horrible. The first one was so much better. I wasn't expecting to watch a chick flick."

I'm completely serious.

Spidey 2 is in my top 3 superhero films.


No doubt. The MCU still dominates the Top 10.

The biggest embarrassment of 2017 was Justice League. Critically and commercially. And as a lifelong fan of those characters it hurts me that I didn't care about it. At all. Those characters deserve so much more.

lol that is a funny comment and Spider-Man 2 is my 2nd favorite CBM ever behind only dark knight rises and its close slight advantage to Rises because better soundtrack and that is why it is my user name that and I love Spider-Man favorite superhero he is. Yeah JL should be a easy billion dollar movie just from the hype of having those characters together for the first time yet didn't even make it to 700 million.

Any beloved movie will always have detractors, some more annoying than others. It was this forum that coined the catchphrase, "Redhead to Heaven 2007" after Spider-Man 2.

Social media just makes them louder.

I am not sure what that catchphrase means never heard it intill now lol.

 

[spiderman2]

Really is crazy just how while Jumji is doing. Its at about 667 million WW and already has a multipler of like 8. Yes I know much lower OW but still crazy the kind of legs it is showing and I really thought the movie would flop badly with it not being a sequel with Robin Williams and them trying to make it all mardern type of thing and coming out around the same time has star wars. Its weekend 4 number is only like a 25% over all drop off from its weekend 1 number.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Rewind

Los Angeles Times - After 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi,' the franchise could help Disney battle Netflix for streaming viewers

Still, "The Last Jedi" is virtually a guaranteed hit. The film is expected to open with $200 million in ticket sales this weekend in the United States and Canada, and another $225 million from foreign countries for a combined box office haul of about $425 million. That could put it on track to gross $1.7 billion in worldwide ticket sales, according to analysts.

http://beta.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-star-wars-last-jedi-disney-20171212-story.html (December 12, 2017)

 

[Agent Orange]

Really is crazy just how while Jumji is doing. Its at about 667 million WW and already has a multipler of like 8. Yes I know much lower OW but still crazy the kind of legs it is showing and I really thought the movie would flop badly with it not being a sequel with Robin Williams and them trying to make it all mardern type of thing and coming out around the same time has star wars. Its weekend 4 number is only like a 25% over all drop off from its weekend 1 number.

Dwayne Johnson is like crack to moviegoers. He even turned the awful Fast and Furious franchise into a billion dollar behemoth.

 

[TheVileOne]

lol that is a funny comment and Spider-Man 2 is my 2nd favorite CBM ever behind only dark knight rises and its close slight advantage to Rises because better soundtrack and that is why it is my user name that and I love Spider-Man favorite superhero he is. Yeah JL should be a easy billion dollar movie just from the hype of having those characters together for the first time yet didn't even make it to 700 million.



I am not sure what that catchphrase means never heard it intill now lol.

Spider-Man 2 is a beloved movie, but it and the Raimi Spider-Man franchise very much had its detractors after the second movie. A lot of people still weren't enthused with the idea of Kirsten Dunst as Mary Jane since she didn't really fit the ideal mold of the character. Dunst had also made some goofy statements in public, and some Hypesters were so revolted with her, one person started saying "Redhead to Heaven 2007" implicating that Mary Jane would indeed die for Spider-Man 3 in 2007.

Some pretty horrible stuff was written about Kirsten Dunst here, and it still disgusts me to this very day.

I don't know why, but I was suspended once after I took issue with posters accusing Dunst of getting pregnant after Spider-Man 2 and she would look fat and ugly. For the record, Dunst was not pregnant, and there were some paparazzi photos of her buying meds. I'm not sure how it started, but a gossip rag or someone insinuated she was pregnant and buying pregnancy medication. Hype posters were furious because her getting pregnant could like sabotage the movie in their minds or something.

Basically, some crazy Hypesters really had it in for Kirsten Dunst as Mary Jane.

Sort of reminds me about Aleksei for how insanely obstinate he was about the first Avengers movie and moaning about the length and cut footage and would constantly ignore legitimate examples to the contrary. Then Avengers came out, and while it wasn't a two and a half hour movie, it was actually a 2 hour 23 minute movie, and he looked even more like an idiot.

 

[Sithborg]

There has been some pretty disgusting stuff posted about MJ, period. Lest we forget the Shailene Woodley... issues.

 

[spiderman2]

So after weekend 5 the movie is now about 31 million away from 1.3 billion. The movie should have around 25 million more USA maybe a little more and still a little more OS left. So it will get to 1.3 but not sure how much higher it will get has we are at the point where most movies have made around 90% of there money and considering this movie is not showing good legs and has very very little left to make in China to.

 

[TheVileOne]

$1.3 billion was hardly a slog for this film. I recall someone mentioning it would be earlier.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Rewind

Los Angeles Times - After 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi,' the franchise could help Disney battle Netflix for streaming viewers

Still, "The Last Jedi" is virtually a guaranteed hit. The film is expected to open with $200 million in ticket sales this weekend in the United States and Canada, and another $225 million from foreign countries for a combined box office haul of about $425 million. That could put it on track to gross $1.7 billion in worldwide ticket sales, according to analysts.


http://beta.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-star-wars-last-jedi-disney-20171212-story.html (December 12, 2017)

1.7b was pretty much the consensus floor for this movie by almost every trade a month before release, man how things change.

 

[Iceman]

1.7b was pretty much the consensus floor for this movie by almost every trade a month before release, man how things change.

My expectations for Episode IX numbers are going to be significantly lower than they would have been had TLJ made it to that kind of number.

 

[Silver Surfer]

My expectations for Episode IX numbers are going to be significantly lower than they would have been had TLJ made it to that kind of number.

Oh yeah, I'm thinking Rogue One final tally for SW9 and next to no shot of Solo getting to a billion. The enthusiasm around the franchise has significantly downsized, much more than initially suspected.

 

[Iceman]

Oh yeah, I'm thinking Rogue One final tally for SW9 and next to no shot of Solo getting to a billion. The enthusiasm around the franchise has significantly downsized, much more than initially suspected.

Solo is going to be a harder sell in those markets that have no history with the original trilogy and as a result don’t think of Han Solo as one of the big characters of blockbuster cinematic history. I can’t see it getting to a billion. As for IX I expect it to do more than Rogue 1 (worldwide) but it will have a job beating TLJ and if TLJ had done 1.6-1.7 I’d be expecting it to outstrip that as it would mean the hype train was still on full steam.

 

[gerrym51]

$1.3 billion was hardly a slog for this film. I recall someone mentioning it would be earlier.

that was me. I said 1.3 billion max and if it was to pass 1.3 billion it would be a slog.

Got to own up to what i say. Anonymous blog posts are the best-lol

 

[Iceman]

that was me. I said 1.3 billion max and if it was to pass 1.3 billion it would be a slog.

Got to own up to what i say. Anonymous blog posts are the best-lol

Haha

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If TLJ keeps pace with R1 for the rest of it's run in both domestic & OS markets, it'll finish with 623.08 million in the domestic box office and 708.1 million in international box office including 41.5 million from China. So the world-wide total would become [623.08+708.1] = 1331.18 million.

OS 2nd weekend drop : R1 - 65.11% ; TLJ - 67.15%
OS 3rd weekend drop : R1 - 11.1% ; TLJ - 8.9%
OS 4th weekend drop : R1 - 38.33% ; TLJ - 44%
OS 5th weekend drop : R1 - 49.26% ; TLJ - 56.32%

This is an OS weekend drop comparisons between R1 & TLJ. I had to disregard South Korea's contribution entirely because R1 opened there during the New Year and it would have been unfair on TLJ as the 3rd weekend for R1 would have inflated by a good deal. Plus this list does not take the China weekend numbers into taking account because it would make TLJ look really bad (R1 dropped 73.4% in it's 2nd weekend in China while TLJ dropped an abysmal 91.3% in it's Chinese 2nd weekend).

So apart from the 3rd weekend, TLJ has dropped quite a bit more than R1. So I'm not sure if TLJ will be able to keep the current pace with R1 in order to lock 1.33B world-wide. It might get there eventually but it'll be a close shave.

 

[gerrym51]

I tend to look at numbers-not percentages.

Over the weekend overseas did 19 million dollars.

7 million of it came from just 3 countries-2 of which are almost at ends of runs-China never got started really-it got 257,000 on Monday.(UK'Japan)


that means all the rest of international -central/south america/asia /europe generated just 12 million dollars between them.

I declare International in an 'OFFICIAL SLOG'.

 

[Mjölnir]

Rewind

Los Angeles Times - After 'Star Wars: The Last Jedi,' the franchise could help Disney battle Netflix for streaming viewers



http://beta.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-star-wars-last-jedi-disney-20171212-story.html (December 12, 2017)

Yes, it's quite odd how some say that Lucasfilm/Disney won't have any issues with the film doing about $400 million lower than the estimates just before release. Especially as the OW delivered on expectations, so the hype was maintained but the film didn't manage to keep that interest when it stood on it's own legs.

It's of course a good situation to be in where you can have such a disappointment compared to expectations and still make a ton of money, but no businessman is happy with leaving a lot of money on the table and the trend of repeat business of the OW is a steady decline, so they are sure to want to turn that around.

I don't really care how much money the filthy rich companies make, as long as I can get more movies (and we're far, far away from any potential situation where SW movies would have to take a break, or be rebooted due to not being popular), but it will be pretty interesting to see what Lucasfilm and Disney makes out of this trend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

1.7b was pretty much the consensus floor for this movie by almost every trade a month before release, man how things change.

A floor which dropped rapidly in the run up to OW if you were watching. When TLJ first hit the long range forecast chart on boxoffice.com in October, it had a projected domestic final of $742 million. By a week before OW, that was down to $675 million. It was clear that the early predictions were significantly overblown and not supported by the actual metrics as we got closer to opening day. And that was before anyone had seen one frame of the film outside the trailers.

 

[Mjölnir]

A floor which dropped rapidly in the run up to OW if you were watching. When TLJ first hit the long range forecast chart on boxoffice.com in October, it had a projected domestic final of $742 million. By a week before OW, that was down to $675 million. It was clear that the early predictions were significantly overblown and not supported by the actual metrics as we got closer to opening day. And that was before anyone had seen one frame of the film outside the trailers.

The $1.7 billion estimate that MagnarTheGreat posted was from the Tuesday of the same week as the film had it's wide premiere. So that's later than the one week before number you mentioned.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The $1.7 billion estimate that MagnarTheGreat posted was from the Tuesday of the same week as the film had it's wide premiere. So that's later than the one week before number you mentioned.

And which gives zero sourcing aside from unnamed “analysts.” If you were looking at the projections, they were coming down.

 

[Delwin]

It was so easy: single great battle with Luke (sth like DV scene from RO - Luke dropping some walkers ;-)) and him not dying at the end. The fans would have stormed the cinemas to see it over and over...

 

[Iceman]

It was so easy: single great battle with Luke (sth like DV scene from RO - Luke dropping some walkers ;-)) and him not dying at the end. The fans would have stormed the cinemas to see it over and over...

Sounds simple but I think just that would have made a big difference.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Rian did what he did. I hope he has no regrets whatsoever about making the movie the way he wanted. I can totally understand how folks would have preferred things to transpire in a different direction but personally, I'm glad that Disney/Rian took a more adventurous or should I say unexpected path with this movie. I mean sure the movie could have done different things for better BO returns but I'm glad Rian thought otherwise. It's also a good thing that Disney had faith in Rian. Disney has reposed their faith in him and he has the keys to a new trilogy where he can go wild with his imagination. I like that development. I hope Disney doesn't backtrack on their word.