The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

I think movie studios need to stop being so fixated on catering to Chinese box office. It's become problematic. I'm just glad Deadpool wasn't even released there, so they didn't have to do anything about that.

Apparently, The Force Awakens didn't do huge business there either. The Last Jedi is still going to break $700 million overseas.

China is big and has a lot of people. I get it. But the box office split for overseas gross is minimal anyway.

A film grossed $854m in just China this year. China's capacity is also growing massively. Can you imagine with 10 years of economic growth and X amount more of the Chinese population being able to afford to attend cinemas along with the growth in number of cinemas what could be possible?

 

[TheVileOne]

A film grossed $854m in just China this year. China's capacity is also growing massively. Can you imagine with 10 years of economic growth and X amount more of the Chinese population being able to afford to attend cinemas along with the growth in number of cinemas what could be possible?

OK, and how much money does a US distributor actually get from that? Not to mention how China will just refuse to release a film if it has things in it they don't like, ie Deadpool.

 

[Gladius Nova]

there is 0 chance of this going forward, china is #2 now and will eventually be #1, if it isn't already, they're building like 20 screens a day over there.

if anything Ep9 will probably address 8's critique from mainlanders and throw in more "hollywood attractive" people and go with bigger names for supporting

As much as it hasn't been popular for a SW film, I actually see this happening for Ep 9. I think they might want to think about adding a little "flavor" and go out with a bang...that is IF they can get the right actor for a critical part of the story. And not a brief cameo, it has to be someone they can incorporate into the promotion build-up to add to the excitement.

 

[dataSlave]

A film grossed $854m in just China this year. China's capacity is also growing massively. Can you imagine with 10 years of economic growth and X amount more of the Chinese population being able to afford to attend cinemas along with the growth in number of cinemas what could be possible?

China will grow but at least half the current growth is artificial - a result of their central planning pushing the economy deliberately towards services. They might grow at current rates for another 2-3 years then there will be a drastic shake out just like they experienced in the steel and coal industries. Those took out about 25-30% of capacity from 2011 to 2016.

And Hollywood needs to look at how other industries have fared by going into China. They really got screwed on the terms generally and movies are no exception. Chinese law says no more than 25% of the revenue from any movie can be sent out of the country. And the government's policy is to encourage import substitution in cinema just like they have in other industries. They don't want money leaving the country. That's a big reason why Hollywood's share of the Chinese movie market has fallen by about a third in the last decade.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

TLJ is losing 634 theaters this weekend, down to 2,456 theaters (R1 had 2,603 theaters). TLJ will lose 20.5% of it's theaters while R1 lost 17.7% of the same.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Last weekend (3 Day), TLJ's PTA was 90% of R1's PTA. If we go with a similar PTA retention rate, TLJ could gross 6.12 million. But that feels like way optimistic right nao. So an 87.5% retention rate on PTA gives us 5.95 million. That would mean a 6th weekend drop of 49.8%. Which would be much more in line with TFA's (46.6%) & R1's (46.5%) respective 6th weekend drops. I feel like that's the ceiling for the weekend and TLJ will probably come in lower than that figure.

In any case, if that 5.95 million number holds, R1 would be ahead by 21.17% for the same weekend. Last weekend R1's 3 Day was 13.62% higher w.r.t TLJ. So R1 will further drift apart and pull ahead rather swiftly.

 

[gerrym51]

Last weekend (3 Day), TLJ's PTA was 90% of R1's PTA. If we go with a similar PTA retention rate, TLJ could gross 6.12 million. But that feels like way optimistic right nao. So an 87.5% retention rate on PTA gives us 5.95 million. That would mean a 6th weekend drop of 49.8%. Which would be much more in line with TFA's (46.6%) & R1's (46.5%) respective 6th weekend drops. I feel like that's the ceiling for the weekend and TLJ will probably come in lower than that figure.

In any case, if that 5.95 million number holds, R1 would be ahead by 21.17% for the same weekend. Last weekend R1's 3 Day was 13.62% higher w.r.t TLJ. So R1 will further drift apart and pull ahead rather swiftly.

Sounds complicated

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Sounds complicated

Haha. That's just me having fun with numbers.

Here's something much more simple, TLJ will finish with 620.05 million with a 5.95 million 6th weekend under the assumption that TLJ keeps current pace with R1. But the assumption is refuted by previous numbers as I provided in the earlier post. So a sub-620 million final domestic total looks likely atm. The Avengers is most likely going to remain at #5 of All Time for the time being. I thought TA was toast after TLJ's massive OW tho, so this is kinda surprising.

 

[JOE]

Imagine Deadpool's numbers had China been in the mix? That movie was a box office monster for its budget.

 

[AverageMan]

Has this crossed $600m DOM yet?

I though I saw that somewhere, but Box Office Mojo still has it below $600m. I know it takes a few days to update though...

 

[gerrym51]

Haha. That's just me having fun with numbers.

Here's something much more simple, TLJ will finish with 620.05 million with a 5.95 million 6th weekend under the assumption that TLJ keeps current pace with R1. But the assumption is refuted by previous numbers as I provided in the earlier post. So a sub-620 million final domestic total looks likely atm. The Avengers is most likely going to remain at #5 of All Time for the time being. I thought TA was toast after TLJ's massive OW tho, so this is kinda surprising.

What your saying is it will do this if it does that but it hasn't been doing that so it's not gonna do this.

my prediction is still max 1.3 or as i hedge a slow crawl over 1.3

 

[Blitzkrieg]

What your saying is it will do this if it does that but it hasn't been doing that so it's not gonna do this.

Exactly !!!

See the figure it's not gonna achieve because it hasn't been doing _ is basically the ceiling for it atm. We can declare that target as unattainable and we slide down from there to predict what's it gonna do in the rest of it's run.

my prediction is still max 1.3 or as i hedge a slow crawl over 1.3.

The movie still has at-least (21-22) million left in the tank from the domestic market. TLJ raked in 16.5 million last weekend from OS-China markets. China will contribute (1.5-2) million more and the rest of markets will bring in at-least 25 million from here on out (that's if TLJ falls a whopping 22.74% w.r.t R1 in the rest of the OS run). TLJ won't just vanish off the face of the earth after next week. Money will still trickle in from all parts of the world.

So WW total for TLJ becomes (1,271+21.5+1.5+25) = 1.318B. I think 1.32 B is he minimum target atm. TLJ should still be able to achieve the target.

 

[Iceman]

China will grow but at least half the current growth is artificial - a result of their central planning pushing the economy deliberately towards services. They might grow at current rates for another 2-3 years then there will be a drastic shake out just like they experienced in the steel and coal industries. Those took out about 25-30% of capacity from 2011 to 2016.

And Hollywood needs to look at how other industries have fared by going into China. They really got screwed on the terms generally and movies are no exception. Chinese law says no more than 25% of the revenue from any movie can be sent out of the country. And the government's policy is to encourage import substitution in cinema just like they have in other industries. They don't want money leaving the country. That's a big reason why Hollywood's share of the Chinese movie market has fallen by about a third in the last decade.

If they grow at current rates and then lose 25-30% in 2-3 year's time and then stay static forever then we still have a monster market.

And outside of capacity (assuming they tear down a lot of the cinemas that have been built), the expenditure at the box office is down to the Chinese consumer, rising disposable incomes and changing attitudes to watching Western films. Unlike steel and coal policy which is government controlled and supply side and can be affected and even eliminated if different fuel methods become preferable.

I'm sure the Chinese government would prefer a 100% domestic film industry so they could have full control but they are also losing out on their low-risk 75% share of huge Western grossers so it's not as easy for them to say no as it was in the past. Of course 25% is low but 25% of a number that is much bigger than nearly all other overseas countries is better than 50% of a much lower number. 1/3 of Furious 7's $1.16B overseas box office was from China.

And another reason for Hollywood's share going down is because the Chinese domestic market is doing much better with a film making $854m which is the 2nd largest number ever in any one domestic market.

 

[Iceman]

OK, and how much money does a US distributor actually get from that? Not to mention how China will just refuse to release a film if it has things in it they don't like, ie Deadpool.

As mentioned above 25% of a huge number is better than 50% of a number that is less than half. And those are the numbers now without accounting for the pace of growth relative to mature markets like the U.S..

There are specific things that the Chinese government won't allow and studios can always do an edit that excludes those things IF they want some of that Chinese money (unless like Deadpool they are inherent in the material in which case China is irrelevant anyway - no need to cater to them in that case).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Has this crossed $600m DOM yet?

I though I saw that somewhere, but Box Office Mojo still has it below $600m. I know it takes a few days to update though...

It’s at $597.7 million after yesterday, so it should pass 600 tomorrow. It’s projected to be around 603 after Sunday.

 

[dataSlave]

If they grow at current rates and then lose 25-30% in 2-3 year's time and then stay static forever then we still have a monster market.

And outside of capacity (assuming they tear down a lot of the cinemas that have been built), the expenditure at the box office is down to the Chinese consumer, rising disposable incomes and changing attitudes to watching Western films. Unlike steel and coal policy which is government controlled and supply side and can be affected and even eliminated if different fuel methods become preferable.

I'm sure the Chinese government would prefer a 100% domestic film industry so they could have full control but they are also losing out on their low-risk 75% share of huge Western grossers so it's not as easy for them to say no as it was in the past. Of course 25% is low but 25% of a number that is much bigger than nearly all other overseas countries is better than 50% of a much lower number. 1/3 of Furious 7's $1.16B overseas box office was from China.

And another reason for Hollywood's share going down is because the Chinese domestic market is doing much better with a film making $854m which is the 2nd largest number ever in any one domestic market.

China's movie market will be large. I'm just trying to point out that it's dangerous to extrapolate current trends over multi-year time periods. My old boss used to say there's nothing more dangerous than an analyst with a ruler.

And Hollywood has very little leverage. Look at how eager the studios are to kiss butt now. They are falling all over themselves to distribute in China for a 25% split. Why would Beijing ever give them a better deal?

 

[dataSlave]

Sounds complicated

Last week I could not even spell statistician. Now I are one. t:

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

These LOTR/Hobbit movies were all December releases:

Produced by Marvel Studios

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@boxoffice:

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$1.651M Friday Estimate
$599.37M Domestic Total
#StarWars #TheLastJedi #BoxOffice

 

[dataSlave]

Deadline Hollywood has a $6.5 million weekend estimate for TLJ, holding on in the top 10 at #8. Rogue One's 6th weekend was $7.2 million. That should bring the domestic cume to just over $604 million. Overseas box office was at $675 million as of Friday and if trends hold should rise another $5-6 million through Sunday.

$15 million more for $1.3 billion global cume. It should get there in another week or two but that's going to be very late in the theatrical run. RO had $19.4 million left in the tank at the end of w/e #6 and TLJ has been running 10-20% behind RO for 10 days or so. $620 million looks like a reasonable goal now. My original estimate was $650 mil +/- $22 mil. Gonna miss the low end by about 1.5%.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

I think Deadline's first weekend estimate could be overly optimistic again as it usually always has been for this movie. Then they go and revise it down in the past too far and the final actual result ends up somewhere in the middle. At least that's been the pattern. The movie has lost a lot of theaters again beginning yesterday.

Day 36
TFA goes from 3,822 theaters to 3,365 (-11.96%)
RO goes from 3,162 theaters to 2,603 (-17.68%)
TLJ goes from 3,090 theaters to 2,456 (-20.52%)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@boxoffice

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$6.56M Weekend (Est.)
2,456 Screens / $2,673 Avg.
Weekend 6 / -44% Change
$604.28M

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Mojo:

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $604,284,476 46.6%
+ Foreign: $692,000,000 53.4%
= Worldwide: $1,296,284,476

 

[TheVileOne]

As mentioned above 25% of a huge number is better than 50% of a number that is less than half. And those are the numbers now without accounting for the pace of growth relative to mature markets like the U.S..

There are specific things that the Chinese government won't allow and studios can always do an edit that excludes those things IF they want some of that Chinese money (unless like Deadpool they are inherent in the material in which case China is irrelevant anyway - no need to cater to them in that case).

Going by that percentage, that number only matters if the movie can make a huge number in China. For example, The Force Awakens made about $125 million in China. So that comes out to only about $30+ million for Disney from that film's foreign gross.

OK, what about Warcraft, a film that made $386 million overseas. It's China gross was about $213 million. For Legendary, that's about $53+ million back. Significantly more, but that split still wasn't enough for Warcraft to break even and get its money back.

So if you have a decent sized movie, yeah that's good. But when we are talking Warcraft or Star Wars size, it's not that impressive.

The potential audience is huge, but it's only profitable if people there actually turn out to see it. And yet again, look at how China censors the media or will outright reject a film if it has content they do not like.

 

[Iceman]

Going by that percentage, that number only matters if the movie can make a huge number in China. For example, The Force Awakens made about $125 million in China. So that comes out to only about $30+ million for Disney from that film's foreign gross.

OK, what about Warcraft, a film that made $386 million overseas. It's China gross was about $213 million. For Legendary, that's about $53+ million back. Significantly more, but that split still wasn't enough for Warcraft to break even and get it's money back.

So if you have a decent sized movie, yeah that's good. But when we are talking Warcraft or Star Wars size, it's not that impressive.

The potential audience is huge, but it's only profitable if people there actually turn out to see it. And yet again, look at how China censors the media or will outright reject a film if it has content they do not like.

I agree. I'm only talking about movies that can make mega-money there. And now that SW is fading there it might be time to either not bother at all or really rethink things. 25% of a small number is an extremely small number.