The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

China's movie market will be large. I'm just trying to point out that it's dangerous to extrapolate current trends over multi-year time periods. My old boss used to say there's nothing more dangerous than an analyst with a ruler.

And Hollywood has very little leverage. Look at how eager the studios are to kiss butt now. They are falling all over themselves to distribute in China for a 25% split. Why would Beijing ever give them a better deal?

It already is huge. It already has the 2nd biggest film of all time in a domestic market while it is still just starting out. Your old boss is right lol (I also do this stuff for a living). But there is no extrapolation needed in this case. If it comes to an emergency stop ie downs tools on making any more cinemas forever today, the growth is still going to be huge as the 1.4B citizens, a large proportion of who are in poverty, slowly get more disposable income to the point that X amount more move from the point where they can't afford to watch films to the point where they can. The current rate of growth is totally unsustainable so no one would extrapolate that anyway but that doesn't mean a normal rate of growth for an immature market isn't to be expected once the crazy times cease and even that would be a lot higher than Western markets will ever see again.

Hollywood has little leverage but enough if it makes films that can do big business in China like Furious and Avengers. So for eg Star Wars has now lost its bargaining power. The deal doesn't need to get better as it is acceptable in its current format judging by the actions of studios who are still doing everything they can to get their films released there. An Avengers film might make 3 times as much there in 10 years time and we can’t expect that kind of relative growth in the U.S. or that kind of absolute growth in any other individual market.

China has to choose film by film whether it wants to take in 75% of the box office of big films or focus more on internal politics and give up the free money. They have obviously seen the benefit as they have moved from a stance of no Western movies to allowing a fair number every year.

 

[TheVileOne]

It seems like Last Jedi is still doing well in subsequent weeks, and it's about to hit $1.3 billion worldwide. It also seems like there is still juice left overseas.

Like $650 million definitely seems off right now, but $635 million? Maybe.

 

[spiderman2]

@boxoffice

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$6.56M Weekend (Est.)
2,456 Screens / $2,673 Avg.
Weekend 6 / -44% Change
$604.28M

Mojo:

Finally a weekend where it looks like its number is going to maybe be higher then its prediction and not lower.

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $604,284,476 46.6%
+ Foreign: $692,000,000 53.4%
= Worldwide: $1,296,284,476

So close to 1.3 I wonder how much this has left. Are its OS legs still looking better then its USA legs?

 

[TheVileOne]

Call me crazy, but I still think $1.4 billion is possible.

 

[Gladius Nova]

Call me crazy, but I still think $1.4 billion is possible.

You are crazy. $1.35 billion max before it is pulled.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Call me crazy, but I still think $1.4 billion is possible.

 

[TheVileOne]

LOL, fair enough

 

[Blitzkrieg]

@boxoffice

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI
$6.56M Weekend (Est.)
2,456 Screens / $2,673 Avg.
Weekend 6 / -44% Change
$604.28M

Wow, that's a great weekend number. TLJ dropped 44.26% from last weekend which is better than both TFA (46.6%) & R1 (46.5%). TLJ also didn't fall off a proverbial cliff like the last week w.r.t R1 so that's much better.

Also a curious thing is that TLJ started off better and ended in a worse position w.r.t R1 this weekend. I mean last week R1 was 22.09%, 15.37% & 6.1% ahead in the 3 day weekend dailies while R1 is ahead 6.29% (Fri), 10.49% (Sat) & 11.85% (Sun) in this weekend.

Maybe this where TLJ begins it's stabilization. Late legs might also turn out to be good. This also puts 620 million+ back on the menu for TLJ.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So close to 1.3 I wonder how much this has left. Are its OS legs still looking better then its USA legs?

Much better. In fact the OS weekend number (9.9 million) is great for the 6th weekend. The overall number may not look that strong next to R1 which made close to 9.7 million but if we subtract the Chinese contribution from both, we get 9 million for TLJ and just 6.23 million for R1. For the 1st time TLJ has comprehensively beaten R1's OS weekend drop (39.74% [TLJ]>>52.43% [R1]). I was thinking much worse before the weekend. I thought 7.81 million would be a good result all things considered but TLJ has totally surpassed it. The OS-China figure could reach 674 million+ with the weekend hold and further good drops. Add 41 million from China and the world-wide total becomes [674+41]=715 million. With 620 million from domestic, TLJ is aiming for 1.335B right nao.

 

[gerrym51]

Call me crazy, but I still think $1.4 billion is possible.

I'd consider this if you can tell us were this 100 million will come from?

I don't see it.

It's crawling past 1.3. seems hard to crawl past 1.4



it made 10 million internationally this weekend. just doesn't seem possible

 

[dataSlave]

Much better. In fact the OS weekend number (9.9 million) is great for the 6th weekend. The overall number may not look that strong next to R1 which made close to 9.7 million but if we subtract the Chinese contribution from both, we get 9 million for TLJ and just 6.23 million for R1. For the 1st time TLJ has comprehensively beaten R1's OS weekend drop (39.74% [TLJ]>>52.43% [R1]). I was thinking much worse before the weekend. I thought 7.81 million would be a good result all things considered but TLJ has totally surpassed it. The OS-China figure could reach 674 million+ with the weekend hold and further good drops. Add 41 million from China and the world-wide total becomes [674+41]=715 million. With 620 million from domestic, TLJ is aiming for 1.335B right nao.

Europe again is the key geography for the overseas box office. $253 million cume for the Big 3 markets in Europe. Put another way, TLJ has made 42% as much in those 3 countries as the entire domestic box office. That compares to 31% of domestic from those 3 countries for RO and 38% for TFA. I don't think anyone could have predicted such a big jump from Europe before the movie opened.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'd consider this if you can tell us were this 100 million will come from?

I don't see it.

It's crawling past 1.3. seems hard to crawl past 1.4



it made 10 million internationally this weekend. just doesn't seem possible

A little overseas, a little domestic

 

[Silver Surfer]

A question for our number crunchers, Murrelll on Screen Junkies said TLJ will end up as the most front loaded Star Wars movie in history, and the only one which failed to reach a 3x multiplier, any truth to that?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

A question for our number crunchers, Murrelll on Screen Junkies said TLJ will end up as the most front loaded Star Wars movie in history, and the only one which failed to reach a 3x multiplier, any truth to that?

He wouldn't be far off. It is however unfair to bring up OT into this conversation because 70's and 80's were a different time. It was conducive for legs as the theatrical window must've been longer and the HV materials must have had a much delayed release compared to the present. Also movies didn't drop a whole lot during those times and even in 90's so getting a 3x multiplier would have been a cakewalk for the biggest movie trilogy of all time (adjusted). But PT cold be regarded as a close comparison but even then AOTC & ROTS were 4 day openers. AOTC & ROTS did achieve (3.0 x OW) but looking at multipliers off their 3 day weekends would be a wrong way to look at it.

The generally regarded worst performer among them (AOTC) managed a 3.17 multiplier of it's makeshift/comparable 3 day weekend. ROTS managed 2.85 of it's makeshift 3 day weekend. But the main thing we hafta remember is that all of the PT movie were in summer so the 2.85x during summer should easily translate to above 3.0x during Dec. No SW movie has bad or even average legs at the BO.

Here are some facts for you, TFA and R1 went past the 3.0x marks on their 18th and 23rd day respectively while TLJ will limp toward a 2.8x multiplier at the end of it's run. TLJ also happens to be the 10th worst movie of all time in terms of legs for a Dec. opener. Plus both Avengers and Jurassic World opened in the same ball park and got to 3.0x at the end their domestic BO runs and they were both summer blockbusters.

I can confidently say that not many people would have thought TLJ would miss a 3.0x multiplier before the release. The OW could have fluctuated on either end of the spectrum but the one thing that everyone would have agreed upon would have been strong legs throughout the holiday period.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I can confidently say that not many people would have thought TLJ would miss a 3.0x multiplier before the release. The OW could have fluctuated on either end of the spectrum but the one thing that everyone would have agreed upon would have been strong legs throughout the holiday period.

Well, the other thing no one saw coming was Jumanji. Unlike either of the previous films, TLJ got itself a direct competitor that was a bona-fide smash hit. Considering just OW, Jumanji will finish with something like a 10x multiplier, and even if you add in its Wednesday, Thursday and Xmas day numbers, it will still land at something like 5x. By the end of its run I expect Jumanji to oust Homecoming from the top 5 domestic films of 2017 and challenge Ragnarok’s $851 million WW number.

Had these two movies come out in the summer, I don’t think the impact would have been nearly as big, but in the compresssed holiday timeframe, Jumanji clearly ate into TLJ’s repeat business.

To me, this is the big takeaway from holiday 2017: you can go directly against Star Wars and win if you’ve got a good film. For the last two years, other studios declined to test the franchise; this year Sony popped The Mouse right in the nose. Expect more direct competitors to emerge in the future.

 

[Iceman]

That 3x multiplier isn't too big a deal here. Other franchises that open this big wouldn't expect a 3x, although of course they'd welcome it. The OT and PT are from a time when a 3x was common so the 2 relevant films are TFA and RO which were big outperformers for both an Episode film and a spinoff.

 

[007]

How much would jumaji have to make to be seen as more financially successful of the two?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

By the end of its run I expect Jumanji to oust Homecoming from the top 5 domestic films of 2017 and challenge Ragnarok’s $851 million WW number.

By the end of it's run Jumanji will be Sony's 2nd biggest movie of all time behind Spider-Man (2002). Also Jumanji well positioned go over 840 million from the remaining domestic number alone. It just had a 32.6 million OS weekend. I haven't done any calculations on how much it still has left in the tank for OS. But [1.9 x 5th weekend] will get it to 900 million. I think there is a very real possibility that Jumanji finishes north of 900 million.

Had these two movies come out in the summer, I don’t think the impact would have been nearly as big, but in the compressed holiday time-frame, Jumanji clearly ate into TLJ’s repeat business.

But in Summer, TLJ's weekend drops would have been bigger. Plus if you put 1> Inflated Summer Weekdays effect & 2> Holiday Effect side by side, I'm sure the latter will prove more beneficial at the end.

See TDK vs R1 for example. TDK opened when schools were out in Mid-Summer and R1 opened during the holidays. At the end of the 5th weekend, R1 was at 501.9 million while TDK was at 471.1 million. TDK opened 3.3 million higher but the holiday alone ensured R1's Total will easily beat TDK's total up-to that point. TDK had to compete with Mamma Mia (144 million) while R1 faced Sing (270 million). I mean Mamma Mia + Hancock + Journey to the Centre of the Earth in that 1 month span combined will barely out-gross Sing (244m>>238m). R1 also had to face two breakout hits in La La Land and Hidden Figures and it still came out in flying colors because the Holiday effect was in full swing.

Also in favor of your case I have the example of JW vs IO in Summer '15. JW opened to 208.8 million and finished with 652.27 million while IO came out in it's 2nd weekend, opened to 90.44 million and finished with 356.46 million. But don't you think JW would have done better during the Holidays?? I mean throughout the 1st 5 weekends JW and TLJ's main competition did 291.3 million and 284.2 million respectively. Not a big difference there. So I think even with a Jumanji like competition JW would have easily achieved a 3.0 multiplier in the SW Dec. slot.

I can't deny that Jumanji isn't having an effect on TLJ. On the contrary it is quite prominent and frankly shocking. But I'm sure that if the audience reception was a bit better, TLJ would have had no problem whatsoever to cross the 3.0 mark.

To me, this is the big takeaway from holiday 2017: you can go directly against Star Wars and win if you’ve got a good film. For the last two years, other studios declined to test the franchise; this year Sony popped The Mouse right in the nose. Expect more direct competitors to emerge in the future.

Definitely. Jumanji showed that there's a place for effective counter-programming against SW. Maybe other studios will be less afraid of SW from next time.

 

[Iceman]

Definitely. Jumanji showed that there's a place for effective counter-programming against SW. Maybe other studios will be less afraid of SW from next time.

Yes, it could certainly make some execs think differently.

 

[gerrym51]

How much would jumaji have to make to be seen as more financially successful of the two?

without knowing the specifics of how much each cost in making and marketing-all the studios lie-

I would guess Jumanji will be more profitable based on box office versus cost.

However ancillary items-such as toys-even if they are down for SW-might be a difference.

 

[Spider-Fan]

How much would jumaji have to make to be seen as more financially successful of the two?

Are you talking profit margin? All things equal, Jumanji never will be especially if you're taking into account toys and merchandise. If you're talking pure BO dollars, I off hand don't know Jumanji's budget. We'd have to compare budgets of the 2 movies. I don't think Jumanji will reach that point, however. Further, I think Disney forced theaters to take less money on the BO for Star Wars, if I remember correctly.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

How much would jumanji have to make to be seen as xore financially successful of the two?

I don't think it's possible. Once you factor in the ancillaries and the merchandise money, TLJ will be out of sight. If you're only interested in the theatrical revenues, then TLJ will bring in way more than Jumanji but....

J - (390x0.5) + (435x0.4) + (92x0.25) = 399.8m

TLJ - [(580.3x0.65)+(40x0.5)] + (670x0.4) + (41x0.25) = 675.455m

So TLJ is clearly well ahead in overall numbers but relative to their trade reported production budget Jumanji will be more profitable. Also when you consider the P&A budget, off the tops and participation bonuses on top of prod. budget, Jumanji will seem even better w.r.t TLJ.

 

[TheVileOne]

Greatest Showman was also effective counter-programming.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Greatest Showman was also effective counter-programming.

Well, TGS was actual counter programming, a film aimed at a different demographic than TLJ was. Jumanji was a direct competitor for the same audience TLJ was appealing to. Worse (from TLJ’s point of view) it was a smash hit. I’m sure it got plenty of money that disappointed SW fans had earmarked for repeat viewings, but I’m also sure it got even more from people who liked TLJ and might of seen it a second or third time before the holidays ran out, but ended up seeing Jumanji instead.

In all honesty, I have to hand the holiday 2017 crown to Jumanji. It may not be the highest grosser, but it was clearly the box office story of the season and it did it by lopping the legs off a Star Wars film. That’s impressive.

 

[dataSlave]

Yes, it could certainly make some execs think differently.

That may already be happening. Deadpool 2 was scheduled to open the w/e after Solo, like Jumanji and PP3 WRT TLJ. Fox just moved it up to the week BEFORE Solo. Nothing with blockbuster ambitions opened a week in front of TFA, RO or TLJ.

Not only is Deadpool 2 opening ahead of Solo but it's a movie aiming largely at the same core demographic. Movies that tried to go H2H against SW movies were almost always kids movies like Sing, Alvin and the Chipmunks or Ferdinand. This is a pretty big change. We'll see if it's hubris or the new conventional wisdom.