The North Korean Situation II

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Something I had thought about, if there was more than a 50% (just a random percentage) that the NKoreans could nuke the west coast I would expect to see a shift of some kind in military personnel and military equipment and assets. They would be shifting east. Our defense budget just got slashed and they wouldn't let valuable assets get vaporized. As it stands I've seen nothing to indicate the military in california is making any kind of movement.

I know you said random, but I gotta call you on this....

50%??? You think they'd let the risk factor get that high before they acted?? A 1-in-2 chance of Cali being wiped off the map before US forces started "shifting East"? The US government (at least under George W Bush) had a One Percent Doctrine. Basically if a threat exceeded a one percent chance of happening (such as the threat of Pakistan nuke scientists selling secrets to Al Qaeda... or Iraq possibly having WMDs) they acted as if the 1% chance were a certainty. If Cali had a higher than 1% chance of being nuked there would be a diplomatic stand-off (ala Cuban Missile Crisis) or some kind of military action.

 

[Thundercrack85]

You don't go to war with America with a dozen nukes, and some crappy missiles.

Hell, the crappy missile "shield" might even kill some of those crappy missiles.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

You're talking about North Korea though. If NoKo gets boxed in and the regime feels it's collapsing anyway, they'll probably want to do as much damage to SoKo and the US as they can before they go down (but I imagine they'll attack the US through their bases in SoKo. They're years away from having the capacity to deliver warheads to the US).

 

[Thundercrack85]

That could happen. Though really I see it more as an insurance policy. As long as they have nukes, they can get away with anything (so long as they don't use them, obviously).

My main worry is what happens when North Korea does collapse, and then you have a bunch factions, full of brainwashed people with nuclear weapons.

But we are talking about a couple of senile generals, and a boy king, so really, the current regime having nukes, is a bad enough thought.

 

[Kelly]

You're talking about North Korea though. If NoKo gets boxed in and the regime feels it's collapsing anyway, they'll probably want to do as much damage to SoKo and the US as they can before they go down (but I imagine they'll attack the US through their bases in SoKo. They're years away from having the capacity to deliver warheads to the US).

That could happen. Though really I see it more as an insurance policy. As long as they have nukes, they can get away with anything (so long as they don't use them, obviously).

My main worry is what happens when North Korea does collapse, and then you have a bunch factions, full of brainwashed people with nuclear weapons.

But we are talking about a couple of senile generals, and a boy king, so really, the current regime having nukes, is a bad enough thought.

I think we can look at Syria as an example of what a regime and dictator will do if pushed.....and its not pretty.

 

[Victarion]

I'd like to think there's agents in NK ready to spring on any trouble...be they from the U.S. or one of the other nations near NK who'd suffer if the boy-king tried anything with nukes.

 

[Kelly]

I'd like to think there's agents in NK ready to spring on any trouble...be they from the U.S. or one of the other nations near NK who'd suffer if the boy-king tried anything with nukes.

I don't know about US, but I could almost guarantee that Russia and China both have agents in the NK watching and ready to make sure they don't do ANYTHING like they are talking...

 

[chamber-music]

I don't know about US, but I could almost guarantee that Russia and China both have agents in the NK watching and ready to make sure they don't do ANYTHING like they are talking...

Exactly.

Do people actually think Russia or China would sit back and let North Korea nukes or missiles float off into more dangerous hands than they already are.

China keeps a firm grip on its own people and sure as hell has spies in North Korea. China probably knows what those North Korean generals had for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If things go sideways in NK the chinese will be making sure nothing will go down that jeopardizes themselves or their intrests.

 

[Thundercrack85]

North Korea no longer takes orders from China, much less Russia.

North Korea is becoming as much a nuisance to China as it is to Japan and South Korea. The Commie empires created a monster they can no longer control, and they know it.

A Chinese intervention in North Korea would result in nuclear war. And South Korea wouldn't be happy with China basically annexing half the Korean peninsula.

 

[Hobgoblin]

I can see the Chinese posting troops along their boarder with North Korea if a war with the US happened, but they wouldnt actually cross over. Their troops would keep both Koreans and Americans from crossing into Chinese territory. Not that we would cross into China but I'm sure Beijing wouldnt want to risk it. We did it during the Korean War anyway.

 

[Thundercrack85]

That war would be very intense. Regardless of how it started (assuming it's not nuclear), if it's a real war, North Korea would annihilate Seoul and all US forces in South Korea in a matter of days in a full-scale invasion (even without nukes).

The US would probably launch long-range attacks into North Korea, and prep for a full scale invasion from Japan into South Korea. Japan would probably tear up Article 9 of its constitution and begin rearming that same week.

It's hard to say if South Korea would be able to hold back the North Koreans from taking the rest of the peninsula. They could probably hold out for a while. And the American air and naval forces would give North Korea hell from the seas.

 

[Hobgoblin]

That war would be very intense. Regardless of how it started (assuming it's not nuclear), if it's a real war, North Korea would annihilate Seoul and all US forces in South Korea in a matter of days in a full-scale invasion (even without nukes).

The US would probably launch long-range attacks into North Korea, and prep for a full scale invasion from Japan into South Korea. Japan would probably tear up Article 9 of its constitution and begin rearming that same week.

It's hard to say if South Korea would be able to hold back the North Koreans from taking the rest of the peninsula. They could probably hold out for a while. And the American air and naval forces would give North Korea hell from the seas.

A friend of mine that was in the army years ago once said that if North Korea invaded the South, we would likely lose Seoul but would eventually win the war. Still, losing Seoul means losing a hell of a lot of lives.

10 million people make up Seoul, according to Wikipedia. So take it as you will.

 

[Thundercrack85]

A friend of mine that was in the army years ago once said that if North Korea invaded the South, we would likely lose Seoul but would eventually win the war. Still, losing Seoul means losing a hell of a lot of lives.

I could see that, but that was before nukes came into the picture. Now, I just don't know. However, that would only be a last ditch measure for the North Koreans (i.e. if the South Koreans and Americans drove them back into North Korea, and launched a huge counteroffensive into the North).

But I do know one thing, if the North Koreans do annihilate Seoul, the South Koreans won't settle for an armistice.

 

[Hobgoblin]

I just hope that the South doesnt start building nukes, not that I could blame them for wanting to. I dont see how a nuclear arms race on the peninsula could end in a good way. Last I heard 2/3 of South Koreans supported getting their own bombs.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I think we may be seeing the beginning of a new, mini Star Wars actually. Which is kind of strange, but it makes sense in context. The South's economy is its greatest asset. It has no real intention of destroying North Korea. But if it begins to invest heavily into missile defense technology, then the already destitute North will have to spend more and more, to develop increasingly advanced missile and nuclear weapon technology.

 

[NickNitro]

I dont know if any one has posted this yet

Apparently NK isn't into striking with their nukes, they are testing these nukes as a quality assurance measure to sell to Terrorist Organizations?

http://news.yahoo.com/renewed-nuke-sale-fear-recent-nkorea-test-110422435.html

 

[Matt Mortem]

NK is outsourcing a nuclear strike?

 

[Thundercrack85]

They might sell some of the technology, but they would be insane to actually sell the weapon. If a nuke detonates - anywhere, and it gets traced back to them, well, bye bye North Korea.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

According to CNN, South Korean banks, TV stations and Internet servers may have been cyber-attacked by North Korea. No proof at this point though, but that's the current speculation.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

I could see that, but that was before nukes came into the picture. Now, I just don't know. However, that would only be a last ditch measure for the North Koreans (i.e. if the South Koreans and Americans drove them back into North Korea, and launched a huge counteroffensive into the North).

But I do know one thing, if the North Koreans do annihilate Seoul, the South Koreans won't settle for an armistice.

I used to live in Seoul and had a friend in military intelligence. This is what he said about a potential war. The US and ROK are aware of the location of the DPRK artillery sites along the border. They could destroy them all with B52s or missile strikes within 24 hours. Unfortunately that 24 hour window is when the most damage would be done. Estimated dead in Seoul would be 250,000 to 500,000 and I remember it being described as 9/11 x 100, in terms of the skyscrapers that would be leveled and the consequential casualties. The death toll would be bad and Seoul would be in very bad shape, but I don't think it'd be completely destroyed (and while hundreds of thousands would be likely killed, the population of Seoul's urban sprawl is about 14 million). After that 24 hour window, the damage and death would mostly occur north of the DMZ. I also don't think the North could nuke Seoul at this point unless they wheeled a warhead through an underground tunnel. I think it would almost all be artillery barrages.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Now does that scenario take the recent developments in their missile technology into account? Not the nukes, but the ballistic missiles, they keep showing off. Because that seems like it would be a game changer.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Now does that scenario take the recent developments in their missile technology into account? Not the nukes, but the ballistic missiles, they keep showing off. Because that seems like it would be a game changer.

I don't know. This was told to me two years ago after that island was shelled. They've been testing ballistic technology for a few years though.
I assume sites suspected of housing ballistic missiles would be the first ones targeted by the US and ROK.

 

[Destructus86]

According to CNN, South Korean banks, TV stations and Internet servers may have been cyber-attacked by North Korea. No proof at this point though, but that's the current speculation.

It's more than likely NK...even SK believes it is.

It could be NK's first strike.

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

It's more than likely NK...even SK believes it is.

It could be NK's first strike.

Let's not get too carried away. NK has done this before.

I'm not as worried about a war breaking out as I was in 2010 when they sunk the Cheonan sub and shelled Yeonpyeong island near the demarcation line. Those were real military provocations with military and civilian casualties. Missile tests, cyberhacking and fiery rhetoric is worrisome, but also something NK engages in almost yearly. They're probably just probing SK's cyber-defenses, which they have done before.

 

[Marvolo]

I know you said random, but I gotta call you on this....

50%??? You think they'd let the risk factor get that high before they acted?? A 1-in-2 chance of Cali being wiped off the map before US forces started "shifting East"? The US government (at least under George W Bush) had a One Percent Doctrine. Basically if a threat exceeded a one percent chance of happening (such as the threat of Pakistan nuke scientists selling secrets to Al Qaeda... or Iraq possibly having WMDs) they acted as if the 1% chance were a certainty. If Cali had a higher than 1% chance of being nuked there would be a diplomatic stand-off (ala Cuban Missile Crisis) or some kind of military action.

It was random number. Its value is irrelevant to the point I was making which is that there is a line that when crossed our government would begin shifting assets East. They haven't done it yet that I have seen. The line being the confidence they have in the defense shield.

Speaking to your point, I'm not sure what the current administration would do, but they cant evacuate all of California regardless of the percentage. They would get valuable assets out, and trust the rest to the missile shield, and any other defense they have. I know it sounds cruel, but our government has always used triage planning for possible nuclear war. The most important people (those needed to ensure the continuation of governement) get taken to a secure bunker to wait it out. The citizens have to rely on our military defense.

As for a stand-off, we are already doing that with UN sanctions, and our military is already posted in the pacific and we currently shifting more of our forces over there. So it is obviously above a 1% chance they will launch at us.