Yeah, I think it'll be closer than what people think for a few factors:
The weight: JR is going to come in heavier, way heavier than Canelo
The chin: JR can take a punch, he lasted 9 rounds with a full fledged LHW in Fonfara taking punishment. And that was a fat, unmotivated, under trained Chavez.
The trainers: What happened the last time Nacho and Memo Heredia teamed up? Pacquiao got KO'd. Not saying Jr is in the level of Marquez, but right now, Jr is only a pound way from making weight.
From what I've been seeing, the videos, people that have been seeing him train, he's taking this fight serious.