That's far from a smart financial risk. hulk may have worked very well in this group movie, but he hasn't proved he can carry a solo movie at all.
And he already had two chances, with no success.
(I'm going to apologize in advance, I write for a living, so without further ado. Time to get verbose!)
Wrong, the first one gained a lot of money, the second made it's money back and while it under-performed still gained $100mil over it's budget. That's not "no success" that's "less success than Iron Man". Add to that it was coming off of the heals of it's atrocious (not to me, to general audiences) predecessor, received no marketing and was placed up against a powerhouse of competitors... it never stood a chance (and yet managed to do well when it should have garnered barely anything). Neither flat-out failed. In fact, Domestic intake for TIH wasn't bad, the foreign market is where it faltered. Either way, this discussion is neither here nor there as trends apply and are indicative of success; I agree with you there. That's not the point I'm arguing. I'm talking about risk and pay off. You need to gamble on the audiences attention while still capitalizing on their new interests. Give them what they want, as well as what they didn't know they wanted.
The problem here is it is a very smart financial
risk but Marvel is keen on not taking financial risks, that's a problem. It's led to undercutting actors, firing actors, almost firing actors, replacing directors, and generally over-saturating the mainstream with one formulaic movie after another. Heck, besides plot being a different bag, Thor, Captain America, and Iron Man all start out with the whole "flash forward, flashback until you get to the flash forward" mechanic. (Mind you, they are still some of my favorite movies, but, by and large they follow one gigantic formula after another.)
Marvel is playing it safe and generally trying has a habit, as a new studio, of trying to "over-correct" things. There's a place to play it safe (Captain America 2, Iron Man 3, Thor 2) and a place for risks. Those risks need to be taken in order to branch renew market interest. Using one of your most popular characters again after a new flick launches his recognition back into the hearts of the mainstream is a
great risk. One you should act on; not preemptively deny that you would ever capitalize on it (this is all conjecture of course, based on previews. When the actual flick hits theaters no one could care, rendering this discussion useless.)
The Avengers was probably the only thing they've done in the universe of cinema that has broken any boundaries or furthered their profit. Setting up the Avengers ensured that tons of people had to go see the following movies to set up for the grand finale.
The problem is, they are likely going to try and make lightening strike twice in a slew of new origin/solo movies which they have discussed (and, correct me if I am wrong on any of these) Black Widow, Iron Fist, Doctor Strange, and Nick Fury. Difference being, two of those characters will have already been established as bit parts that serve no purpose other than as to give the main draws something to interact with, and others aren't going to interest the mainstream in anyway.
There is of course the issue of Hulk's TV show, which, due to not having the spectacle that people have already formed a synonymous bond with the character from his adventures on the silver screen will more than likely tank in syndication. Heck, I'm a big Hulk fan, and
I'm more than likely not going to watch it.
What they are doing here by jumping the gun is acting like, well, a freshman studio who is afraid to invest in risk. Maybe because they are. Maybe because they should be. I'll still stand by the assertion that is far more risky to impulsively cancel out the opportunity than to at least put it on the drawing board.
Then again, it's not a do-or-die situation for the company, of course. But it's a head-scratcher to not capitalize on one of your biggest characters.
And... no, I really think everyone should drop the ensemble being the reason they liked him. Whether that is, or isn't (and it could be) isn't going to doom a solo movie. If anything it'd rake in a butt load of cash initially only to bomb when word of mouth falters; more than likely making it's money but not securing a sequel--that's assuming it's a bad movie even. Current popularity and fresh impression matters more to an average movie goer than say sitting there analyzing the flick asking themselves "Do I enjoy the Hulk for Hulk? Or do I enjoy him because of the dynamics that he presents in contrast to the various personalities of this ultra-team of heroes? No, I think I'd pass on a movie based on him, because without Tony Stark's prodding and antagonism, the Hulk loses any sort of appeal."
Edit: I should add, "Dat Avvy..." It's awesome, man.