The Official TIH Box Office Discussion Thread

[Golgo-13]

I'm off to see it again now.

 

[Archrivals]

Isn't it correct that the deal Marvel have with Merril and Lynch means that if The Incredible Hulk makes $100million domestic, it is enough for the film or any Marvel film to be a profit and a success and even to warrant a sequel.

Based on that acticle:
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/9553.html

If TIH does $100M for it's demestic gross, the film will break even with no loss.

"But just exactly how will all this work and what are the benchmarks that the Marvel-produced movies starting with Iron Man and Hulk 2 will have to hit? Marvel Studios Vice Chairman Peter Cuneo explained that in general terms a $100 million domestic box office would mark the breakeven point for Marvel, while a $200 million domestic growth and $400 million worldwide take would net Marvel about $117 million in profit."

They will not loose money (from TIH) based off that deal...

Ironman alone has $548,851,570 for its current worldwide gross, so if $400 million worldwide will net Marvel $117 million in profit. Maybe shellhead might net them at least $235M not including merch tie-in and other back end endeavors.

 

[Figs]

LOL, TIH had horrible competition that's why it was number 1.

Don't look at me. I wasn't the one that came up with the ad on TV.

 

[Figs]

LOL, TIH had horrible competition that's why it was number 1.

From the article detailing the terms of their deal $100mil is the 'break even' point for Hulk, basically meaning the film wont technically be a bomb: ie, it will make something of a profit after all the foreign and after sales markets kick in, so Marvel will not lose his rights (financially, Marvel would not make any direct loss in cash no matter what).

From an industry perspective though, a $100mil domestic return on a $150mil production budget would not be considered good at all, so any sequel would be very very doubtful (generally, it usually takes at least an even return on the domestic side to get a sequel, and often even that won't be considered good enough)

Another thing to consider for Marvel: If this film does only just hit that break even point then Marvel would also have to seriously consider the possibility that any sequel might not. If that happened then they can say 'bye bye' to his rights.

On the deal and Iron Mans success....From those details in that article it seems Iron Man's great success, though landing Marvel a huge pile of cash, does not protect any of their other ventures? If so then each film they put out carries the same risk to Marvel: They must at least 'break even' or Marvel can/will lose that characters rights. Least thats how I read it... If I do have that wrong then I stand to be corrected.

What do you mean by Marvel could lose that characters rights??

The characters they Own like Iron Man, Hulk and Captain America are theirs. If the movie does bad the rights don't automatically somehow go to a studio like Fox or Sony.

I'm not sure I understand what your trying to say.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

So Box Office Guru has the following numbers:

1. Get Smart $38M
2. Love Guru $23M
3. Kung Fu Pand $22M
3. Hulk $22M
4. The Happening $12M

My numbers were:

1. Get Smart : $44M
2. Love Guru : $35M
3. Incredible Hulk : $18M
4. Kung Fu Panda : $17M
5. The Happening : $10M


I think Love Guru will surprise people with how much money it takes in
as Jessica Alba can open a turd burgular to over $30M!

How much did she open the movie The Eye with?

Alba is tv actress pretending to be a movie actress.If the Love Guru does well, it's because Mike Myers still has a bit of his soul to sell to the Devil.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I want everybody to promise me that they won't commit suicide if this movie drops 60percent this weekend.

Keep telling yourself...it's only a movie, it's only a movie, it's only a movie.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

What do you mean by Marvel could lose that characters rights??

The characters they Own like Iron Man, Hulk and Captain America are theirs. If the movie does bad the rights don't automatically somehow go to a studio like Fox or Sony.

I'm not sure I understand what your trying to say.

I think it means.....

Like a bank foreclosing on a house. Merrill Lynch owns the rights to the character outside of comics and can sell it to a studio to be made into a movie or tv show.

 

[superion]

I don't get the losing rights either. Wouldnt Marvel lose the rights to the characters only if they were unable to repay Merril Lynch the amount they borrowed. With Iron Man making so much money shouldn't Marvel have enough money to cover at least a few bombs. Most lenders are not interested in reposessing your property and having to sell it again to get their money back especially if they are not certain they can sell it to cover the debt. If you have the money to repay them they would take the cash.

But its still risky with ten pictures. Hulk should at least not lose money but there's still eight more to go. A few films like Ant Man which can be made for minimum cost would be a good idea so you are not exposed to $150 million dollar budgets constantly.

 

[Figs]

I think it means.....

Like a bank foreclosing on a house. Merrill Lynch owns the rights to the character outside of comics and can sell it to a studio to be made into a movie or tv show.

Well, that sucks balls.

I thought Marvel had enough money of their own from their cut of past succesfull comic films and didn't have to make anymore stupid decisions like handing over the rights to their characters again.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I want everybody to promise me that they won't commit suicide if this movie drops 60percent this weekend.

Keep telling yourself...it's only a movie, it's only a movie, it's only a movie.

I also want you to promise to wear one...just in case it does fall 60%.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^lol.

 

[Dangerous]

The real question is will this film make enough money for MS to announce a sequel before 2011.

I'm not feeling optimistic right now.

 

[wobbly]

I think we need someone who does fully understand the deal to cover these questions. To be honest I'm just guessing based on the article.

Anyhow, my guesses based on that are this:
Marvel have no monetary risk with any of these '10' films as M&L are 'under-writing' them via a big @ss loan (once/if the loan is paid off though I would imagine Marvel will be fully independent as they should be able to finance any films themselves by then)

Now the only risk to Marvel, at the moment, is that they have a set target for each film they have to meet to retain that characters rights. Everything above that target is profit for Marvel. On that target Marvel basically get (and lose) nothing.
However, if they fail to meet the target on any given film (whether this is the break even target or perhaps a little lower I do not know) then M&L take over the rights for the character.
Now whether this means Marvel lose just the film rights or all rights I have no idea, but given how sweet the pot is for Marvel on this deal (it is a good deal) I think M&L might well be pushing for full rights should they have to take a bad hit on any of the films.

Now does Iron Man's great revenue protect Marvel's other films, should they do poorly?
I don't know, but I'm guessing not: I think each film stands on it's own with that same risk, at least until the loan is paid off and Marvel are running fully independently, but like I said, this is just my best guess.

 

[THOR]

How much did she open the movie The Eye with?

Alba is tv actress pretending to be a movie actress.If the Love Guru does well, it's because Mike Myers still has a bit of his soul to sell to the Devil.

She managed to get that turd to make $12M on it's opening weekend....without Mike Myers or any other stars for that matter. $13M for Good Luck Chuck, another stinker. Into the Blue is the only movie that she has bombed with, which is surprising because she is in a bikini the entire film. Perhaps guys were smart to stay away to speed up the dvd release of that one! t: So I would be surprised if Mike Myers, Mini Me and Jessica Alba don't make $30M+...


I am going to see Hulk again tonight, doing my part to try to get this film to $130M+....

 

[wobbly]

Well, that sucks balls.

I thought Marvel had enough money of their own from their cut of past succesfull comic films and didn't have to make anymore stupid decisions like handing over the rights to their characters again.

I remember reading that Marvel don't make nearly as much from the characters licensed out to other studios as people might think. The figure I remember reading was only 5% of Spider-Mans net takings found their way to Marvel (that might be wrong though, it has been a while since I read that).

It's mainly that reason that prompted Marvel to take this chance with their own production company: Sony & Fox have made a mint out of their characters, Marvel have not seen much of that, and they would kinda like that to change.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Sony is never giving up the cash cow that is Spider-Man. Just wanted to say.

 

[TheVileOne]

Its all about the 2003 movie now when over a week ago, posters here would hear nothing of "the 2003 movie".

Also, the rumored Norton cut was 20 minutes longer, NOT 70 minutse. Leterrier said there was about 70 minutes total of cut footage. That doesn't mean the Norton cut woul've been 70 minutes longer.

Just saying, movies always film stuff that a lot of times won't up even in an extended/or DVD director's cut .

 

[wobbly]

Sony is never giving up the cash cow that is Spider-Man. Just wanted to say.

Lol, and yes, that should be taken as a given. Neither will Fox let go of Wolverine & his amazing friends anytime soon either

 

[THOR]

The amount of times Marvel has sued Sony since their 1999 Spider-Man agreement seems to indicate that they did not recievce a very good deal! They also sued Sony over Men in Black claiming they did not recieve royalties.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Lol, and yes, that should be taken as a given. Neither will Fox let go of Wolverine & his amazing friends anytime soon either

Absolutely.

Its all about the 2003 movie now when over a week ago, posters here would hear nothing of "the 2003 movie".

Also, the rumored Norton cut was 20 minutes longer, NOT 70 minutse. Leterrier said there was about 70 minutes total of cut footage. That doesn't mean the Norton cut woul've been 70 minutes longer.

Just saying, movies always film stuff that a lot of times won't up even in an extended/or DVD director's cut .

I look at myself like a stopwatch concerning this issue.

 

[FaT_tONle]

The real question is will this film make enough money for MS to announce a sequel before 2011.

I'm not feeling optimistic right now.

At the end of the day it won't be nearly enough. You can't just do a sequel just for the sake of displaying a darker side of Hulk or fleshing out a villain like the Leader... it will essentially be a rehash. I want a sequel too... but the numbers aren't there... I'll be more than happy just for Norton to come back in Avengers let alone do both Avengers AND a sequel... but I'd wish both films would be made sooner than later.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I seriously doubt that Norton will do an avengers movie. He will have no control of a movie with a budget that big. We don't know how big the dust up was but the guy has a rep for trying to take over productions.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Unless Marvel lets him do a re-write on the script...

 

[THOR]

If Marvel is making good deals with licensing then there is a chance of another Hulk film. $150M and a similar amount overseas could be enough with the game tie ins, toys, Burger King promos etc. I certainly hope so, but perhaps the next time we see the Hulk will be as "villain" in the Avengers film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If Marvel is making good deals with licensing then there is a chance of another Hulk film. $150M and a similar amount overseas could be enough with the game tie ins, toys, Burger King promos etc. I certainly hope so, but perhaps the next time we see the Hulk will be as "villain" in the Avengers film.

Eh, the SR fans said the same thing and a sequel still hasn't been greenlit. I think that it will be by the way but by the skin of it's teeth. As for the The Incredible Hulk's future, I'm going to wait till this weekend is over and done with before I comment. More likely than not I'm going to have to wait for the third weekend to tell the whole story.