The Real Deal Oscar Predictions

[Tacit Ronin]

Fincher's directing is just as good as the writing and the best of the year. Nolan has no shot at winning best director whatsoever.

 

[Sawyer]

After watching ZombieLand and then much later The Squid and the Whale, I thought that it was an insult to compare him to Cera. Now I'm not a Cera hater or anything but his acting isn't anything special.

Eventhough Eisenberg plays simular roles (like most actors) there is more depth and raw talent in his performances than anything that Cera has ever done.

I understand what you are saying about the right roles but I will just fear for him if he wins that statue. It seems to add so much presure to these young actors when they win and they always seem to just make the worst choices possible. It just seems like it could be another Adrien Brody situation to me (he was 29 and Eisenberg is 27) but to be fair, Brody has been in better things as of late. I really dug Splice.

Eisenberg was great in Adventureland too.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I hope he isn't but I'm pretty damn sure thats what he means. Also, the director and editor have more of an effect on the performances than the screenwriter. I very much think that writers are underrated but thats no reason to make things up.

The actors did have a huge hand in their performances too.

If only Malin Ackerman had a snappier script. If only.

 

[Doctor Jones]

After watching ZombieLand and then much later The Squid and the Whale, I thought that it was an insult to compare him to Cera. Now I'm not a Cera hater or anything but his acting isn't anything special.

Eventhough Eisenberg plays simular roles (like most actors) there is more depth and raw talent in his performances than anything that Cera has ever done.

I understand what you are saying about the right roles but I will just fear for him if he wins that statue. It seems to add so much presure to these young actors when they win and they always seem to just make the worst choices possible. It just seems like it could be another Adrien Brody situation to me (he was 29 and Eisenberg is 27) but to be fair, Brody has been in better things as of late. I really dug Splice.

I haven't seen The Squid and the Whale and only saw him in Zombieland as my introduction to his acting. He was great in that. He reminded me of Cera but I never thought he was capable of what he did in TSN. I was wrong about that. I'm glad he's branching out more. I've been meaning to see Adventureland too.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My gut feeling tells me Fincher's not gonna win, don't know why, Social Network is brilliant and all, but damn it I can't help but feel it's not gonna be his year, maybe it's because I feel as if the writing is more of the star than the directing, dunno. I guess when I say Nolan has a genuine shot what I mean is Director I feel is a far more open than what people think. My spidey senses tell me a split is on the cards for Director and Picture this year, not sure why, it just doesn't feel a lock the same movie will get the gold and silver medals in 2010.

I'm not 100% on anybody either but I honestly think that Nolan has no chance of winning best director. I can't shake the feeling of a split either but I don't see Nolan benifiting from that split. Inception does not have the perfect storm of events for Nolan to win best director. It's not getting as much attention as films like The Kids are All Right or Black Swan or The Fighter during this awards season. It could but I just don't see The Kings Speech winning for best director either. I think it will be something like Darren Aronofsky for best director if Fincher doesn't win.

I haven't seen The Squid and the Whale and only saw him in Zombieland as my introduction to his acting. He was great in that. He reminded me of Cera but I never thought he was capable of what he did in TSN. I was wrong about that. I'm glad he's branching out more. I've been meaning to see Adventureland too.

His performance in The Social Network is just perfect to me and I didn't think that he was capable of that either. I mean, I loved Franco in 127 Hours but Eisenberg's performance has just stuck with me more.

 

[DACrowe]

I just saw Black Swan. In short it was a very good film that, while quite over the top, was put over the top by an amazing tour de force from Natalie Portman. This is the best performance in her career thus far and she more than earned the Oscar, IMO. That was a mezmorizing movie that took my breath away. I thoroughly enjoyed it and am pushing for Portman. Unfortunately, Bening will win.

 

[Fenrir]

Are you saying anybody can turn in a great performance if they have a great script?

I think the implication is that it is much easier to turn in a great performance, or at the very least incredibly difficult to turn in a mediocre performance with a great script. I have yet to see anyone turn in a landmark or year-best performance with a substandard script. Well-written dialogue is a key ingredient.

 

[PreK]

I will personally kick a kitten if TSN doesn't win Best Screenplay, and Portman doesn't win Best Actress. Those are the two most deserved wins of the entire race, imo.

 

[Fenrir]

My gut feeling tells me Fincher's not gonna win, don't know why, Social Network is brilliant and all, but damn it I can't help but feel it's not gonna be his year, maybe it's because I feel as if the writing is more of the star than the directing, dunno. I guess when I say Nolan has a genuine shot what I mean is Director I feel is a far more open than what people think. My spidey senses tell me a split is on the cards for Director and Picture this year, not sure why, it just doesn't feel a lock the same movie will get the gold and silver medals in 2010.

Ironically, I think the main reason why The Social Network is going to have a tough time for the Best Picture gold is the same reason why Facebook became popular in the first place - because it's 'cool'. The whole film is very sharp, sophisticated and absolutely brimming with youthful energy, one that basks in the glory of the new generation. And that is something I don't expect the tired old geezers at the Academy will connect with or appreciate as much as we do. You know how every year people keep saying that the Oscars have become 'out of touch'. I think The Social Network getting snubbed for Best Picture will solidify that statement for good this time.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I pretty much already said that but you said it more elequently...I'll admit. The oscars are run by a bunch of out of touch old guys so the movie will have a tough time winning Best Picture.

 

[lime]

Three more critics groups:

Las Vegas

Top 10 Films

1. “The Social Network”
2. “Inception”
3. “Black Swan”
4. “127 Hours”
5. “The King’s Speech”
6. “The Fighter”
7. “True Grit”
8. “Winter’s Bone”
9. “The Town”
10. “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Inception”
Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress
Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Justin Timberlake, “The Social Network”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Mila Kunis, “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Screenplay
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”

Best Art Direction
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“Kick-Ass”
“The King’s Speech”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”

Best Cinematography
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“True Grit”

Best Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
“The King’s Speech”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
“True Grit”

Best Film Editing
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“127 Hours”
“Shutter Island”
“The Social Network”

Best Score
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Black Swan”
“Inception”
“The Social Network”
“TRON Legacy”

Best Song
“Country Strong”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“127 Hours”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
“Tangled”

Best Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
“Inception”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
“TRON Legacy”

Best Animated Film
“Despicable Me”
“The Illusionist”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3?

Best Documentary
“Babies”
“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
“Inside Job”
“The Tillman Story”
“Waiting for Superman”

Best Foreign Film
“Biutiful”
“Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
“I Am Love”
“Mesrine”
“A Prophet”

Best Family Film
“Diary of a Whimpy Kid”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Tangled”
“Toy Story 3?

Youth in Film
Zachary Gordon, “Diary of a Whimpy Kid”
Josh Hutcherson, “The Kids Are All Right”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Chloe Grace Moretz, “Kick-Ass”
Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best DVD
“Alien” Anthology
“Avatar” Box Set
“Inception”
“The Pacific”
“Toy Story” Box Set

William Holden Lifetime Achievement Award
Annette Bening
Steve Martin
Helen Mirren
Bill Murray
Thelma Schoonmaker

Dalas

Top 10 Films

1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “Black Swan”
4. “127 Hours”
5. “Winter’s Bone”
6. “Inception”
7. “The Fighter”
8. “True Grit”
9. “The Town”
10. “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Director
David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor
James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

Best Screenplay
“The Social Network”

Best Animated Film
“Toy Story 3?

Best Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful”

Best Documentary
“Waiting for Superman”

Best Cinematography
“127 Hours”

Russell Smith Award
“Winter’s Bone”

Detroit

Best Film
“127 Hours”
“Inception”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Winter’s Bone”

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
Edgar Wright, “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Debra Granik, “Winter’s Bone”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Carey Mulligan, “Never Let Me Go”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”
John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Sam Rockwell, “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Greta Gerwig, “Greenberg”
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Ensemble
“The Fighter”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“Scott Pilgrim vs. the World”
“Winter’s Bone”

Breakthrough Performance
Andrew Garfield, “Never Let Me Go” and “The Social Network”
Greta Gerwig, “Greenberg”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Chloe Moretz, “Kick-Ass” and “Let Me In”
Mia Wasikowska, “The Kids Are All Right”

 

[rashad]

DETROIT FILM CRITICS SOCIETY (Winners)

Best Film
“The Social Network”

Best Director
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”

Best Actor
Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “The Fighter”

Best Ensemble
“Winter’s Bone”

Breakthrough Performance
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Glad to see Winter's Bone getting some love.

127 hours is a good film and is very well directed but I don't think that it was better directed than Winter's Bone and The Social Network. I would have also picked The Social Network for Ensemble over Winters Bone but I respect their opinions. The films were very good.

 

[rashad]

DALLAS-FORT WORTH FILM CRITICS ASSOCIATION (Winners)

Top 10 Films
1. “The Social Network”
2. “The King’s Speech”
3. “Black Swan”
4. “127 Hours”
5. “Winter’s Bone”
6. “Inception”
7. “The Fighter”
8. “True Grit”
9. “The Town”
10. “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Director
David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor
James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

Best Screenplay
“The Social Network”

Best Animated Film
“Toy Story 3″

Best Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful”

Best Documentary
“Waiting for Superman”

Best Cinematography
“127 Hours”

Russell Smith Award
“Winter’s Bone”

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The Social Network is killing it with the best picture wins.

 

[jmc]

Ok, having seen The King's Speech my view on the race has altered. For starters it's a very good film, strong story, fantastic art direction, great performances all round, Colin Firth is as close to a shoe in as you'll get, Geoffry Rush also fantastic and I fully expect he'll be given serious consideration, this is very much a film that's going to appeal to the older Academy members. Whilst TSN maybe be cleaning up with the critics I foresee there won't be enough Academy members on it's side to push it over the line, but then I don't see enough members on TKS side either, I seriously think a generational divide is going to be very evident here. With that in mind I'm tipping those two films are gonna split votes big time and something else may garner enough No.2 or 3 votes to sneak in for the win.

 

[TheFuture]

Has Bale been beaten yet in any of these awards? I haven't seen him lose out yet and it's quite staggering, I've never seen anyone clear up in basically every award that they're nominated for in the awards season.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You also have to take boxoffice in account. After giving it to the 12million grossing Hurt Locker, I don't forsee the Oscars giving best picture to such another low grossing movie in 2011.

I know The King's Speech isn't done at the boxoffice yet, but you can't overlook the boxoffice factor. I'm not saying that boxoffice should be a factor I just don't see them handing it two years in a row to another extremely low grossing film.

 

[jmc]

The type of movie it is I can see it easily that box office will not be an issue with this film. It's Oscar bait, pure and simple, great bait I might add and not as blatant as some films, and to be honest I wouldn't have a problem with it winning Best Picture because it's right up there with the best I've seen this year.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^Eh, the oscars are a business too and I don't see them making two extremely low grossing (AKA nobody saw them) films in a row winning. I realize it's right up their alley (a hell of alot more than TSN or Black Swan) so I'm not writing it off at all, I just think that the boxoffice factor could hurt it.

 

[Laderlappen]

Has Bale been beaten yet in any of these awards? I haven't seen him lose out yet and it's quite staggering, I've never seen anyone clear up in basically every award that they're nominated for in the awards season.

He has lost some but won most of them.

 

[TheFuture]

He has lost some but won most of them.

Ah right, has he lost out to one person in particular or is it a mish mash of actors?

 

[jmc]

I gotta wait another 3 weeks to see Bale in action. Sucks in 2010 that films still aren't being release globally at the same time. And they wonder why people download films.

 

[Laderlappen]

Here you can a list of the wins so far - http://www.awardsdaily.com/2010/12/critics-lists-so-far/#more-33476
Bale's losses has been split to a couple of actors.

 

[TheFuture]

I gotta wait another 3 weeks to see Bale in action. Sucks in 2010 that films still aren't being release globally at the same time. And they wonder why people download films.

Same here, we don't get to see a lot of these films until Jan/Feb.

Here you can a list of the wins so far - http://www.awardsdaily.com/2010/12/critics-lists-so-far/#more-33476
Bale's losses has been split to a couple of actors.

Seems like Bale is comfortably ahead in wins.