Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]512591[/split]

 

[Stark Bauer]

I am hoping this becomes Thor's 'Winter Soldier'.

My predictions:
OW: $110 million
Domestic: $270 million
International: $500 million
Worldwide: $770 million

As a reference point before making your prediction:

Thor: $449.3 million worldwide ($181M Domestic, $268M International, OW $65.7M)

Thor: TDW: $644.6 million worldwide (206.4M Dometic, $438.2M International), OW $85.7M

 

[Krystal]

Are people aware that Thanksgiving is only celebrated in USA ?
Thanksgiving is not helping anywhere but here. Not propelling it to $900

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 19, 2017

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $247,265,770 / $739,202,019

only $160,797,981...come on Thor - you can do it!

 

[iEquinox]

Disney/Marvel’s platinum threqueel Thor: Ragnarok will continue to be the bane of Justice League’s existence as the Son of Asgard lifts more cash — specifically $13M over three and an estimated $20M over five — from the Hall of Justice’s coffers.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/justice...srael-esq-thanksgiving-box-office-1202212680/

I'm going to say deadline's estimates are too low.
Something like a $16M 3-day and $23M 5-day is what I'm looking for atm.

 

[spider-neil]

A film's multiplier is its total box office divided by its opening weekend. So if a movie ends with a $300M domestic total after a $100M opening weekend, its multiplier is 300/100=3x. That number is the main way how legs are defined. The higher the multiplier, the better the legs.

Big fan rush and bad word of mouth naturally reduce a films multiplier. So movies like BvS, with massive fan rush and very bad word of mouth, are very frontloaded. BvS didn't even double its opening weekend gross, in other words: its multiplier was below 2x, which is very rare. On the other end of the spectrum you have things like GotG and Wonder Woman, which didn't have huge fan rush, but really caught on with audiences and had great word of mouth. Their multipliers are 3.5x and 3.99x respectively, which means they are the 2 leggiest big superhero movies in the last 20 years. The average multiplier for an MCU film is about 2.7x.

Then there's also 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc weekend multipliers, which is pretty much the same as the multiplier, but you ignore whatever the movie made before that weekend. So if a movie makes $150M in its first 7 days, has a $40M 2nd weekend and ends with a $310M final total, its 2nd weekend multiplier would be (310-150)/40=4x.

Then you also have an "internal multiplier", which is a film's total weekend gross divided by its Friday gross.

Really concise explanation. Thanks

 

[russian gal]

I wouldn't say $300M is locked, but it looks likely. It needs a 3rd weekend multiplier of at least 3.4x. Nine out of the previous 16 MCU movies achieved this. Thanksgiving holiday should help Ragnarok's odds of making it.

thanks a lot iEquinox
wanted to be prepared for the worst
just in case t:

and for all of your other analysis btw

because it lost over 80% of its screens in China

wow thats big drop
& JL apparently had more screens that AoU right?
& it grossed below TR OW thats amazing!

Im happy quality won!
really tired of peoplel blaming China for giving money to bad films etc etc

Are people aware that Thanksgiving is only celebrated in USA ?

yes we are t:
900 is of the table but I hope people in NA chose to celebrate the day going to TR with their families...1 more time t:

am hoping this becomes Thor's 'Winter Soldier'.

it really became Thor's TWS imho at least in reception )though I love 1st Cap more than 2nd=unpopular opinion))))

+ some Taika is needed here t:
(not gona rub it into DC fans in that battle thread)

 

[StormC]

Someone must have gotten cheeky and edited Ragnarok's box office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thor:_Ragnarok

 

[iEquinox]

$2,457,686 on Monday. Domestic total is up to $249,723,456.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/11/20

That's a 61.4% drop from Sunday and 33.6% drop from last Monday. Thanksgiving is already giving it a significant boost, helping it get a very good hold. 35% of K-12 schools and 16% of colleges in the domestic market were off on Monday, and those percentages will keep going up as we get closer to the weekend.

 

[gerrym51]

$2,457,686 on Monday. Domestic total is up to $249,723,456.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/11/20

That's a 61.4% drop from Sunday and 33.6% drop from last Monday. Thanksgiving is already giving it a significant boost, helping it get a very good hold. 35% of K-12 schools and 16% of colleges in the domestic market were off on Monday, and those percentages will keep going up as we get closer to the weekend.

will it reach 300 million equinox?

 

[iEquinox]

will it reach 300 million equinox?

Very likely, yes.

 

[IAmAsgardian]

If it does reach 850, we have Vision to thank for that.

 

[Iceman]

Haha yep.

 

[Iceman]

will it reach 300 million equinox?

Very likely, yes.

I would have grabbed that without question before the film came out. Thor as a solo hero is now in major film territory. Just hope this means we get more Thor sequels.

 

[Krystal]

That means it's looking at $275 by next Monday?
Wow. And then all of December to add on the pile.

 

[iEquinox]

Losing 799 theaters on Wednesday, which is a 19.6% drop in its theater count. It'll have 3281 theaters left until the end of November.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2017&wk=47&p=.htm

Just so you know, this theater count drop is normal at this stage. Doctor Strange lost 18.6% of its theaters on the same day(3,008 left) while facing very similar competition: Moana for DS vs Coco for TR.

 

[Themanofbat]

Are people aware that Thanksgiving is only celebrated in USA ?
Thanksgiving is not helping anywhere but here. Not propelling it to $900

We celebrate Thanksgiving in Canada, but during the second Monday in October when it's proper.
Eating/prepping a huge turkey diner 4 weeks apart is insane.

 

[Lantern Venom]

So...roughly $80 million to overtake Wonder Woman as the highest grossing CBM of 2017. Does it have the legs?

 

[writer0327]

So...roughly $80 million to overtake Wonder Woman as the highest grossing CBM of 2017. Does it have the legs?

SM:H and GOTG2 already beat WW as the highest grossing CBM.

SM:H: $880M
GOTG2: $863M
WW: $821M
T:R: $741M

Thor has tall order to over take SM:H, but it's not out of the discussion.

 

[Lantern Venom]

SM:H and GOTG2 already beat WW as the highest grossing CBM.

SM:H: $880M
GOTG2: $863M
WW: $821M
T:R: $741M

Thor has tall order to over take SM:H, but it's not out of the discussion.

Wow..I haven't kept up with the numbers that closely this year. I knew Wondy was on top at one point, and I'm not surprised that Spidey-to-the-MCU was a big draw, but GotG's drawing power is astounding.

You're right about T:R having a tough pull to top $880 mil. Holidays gifts + Justice League + Star Wars means that a few people who might have seen it (or would have seen it again) back in the summer might have a monetary decision to make.

 

[SpocksBrain]

Wow..I haven't kept up with the numbers that closely this year. I knew Wondy was on top at one point, and I'm not surprised that Spidey-to-the-MCU was a big draw, but GotG's drawing power is astounding.

You're right about T:R having a tough pull to top $880 mil. Holidays gifts + Justice League + Star Wars means that a few people who might have seen it (or would have seen it again) back in the summer might have a monetary decision to make.

You’re thinking domestic. Wonder Woman was never “on top” with the world wide box office. Guardians Vol 2 started making its money a month earlier than WW.

 

[russian gal]

ha funny how clearly I remember myself anxiously waiting for TDW to get to 200 DOM milestone back in 2013 t:

Im happy now in 2017 we're anticiating a much better milestone

Is it gonna outgross JL in China btw ??
really want it to

You’re thinking domestic. Wonder Woman was never “on top” with the world wide box office.

yep
WW is only a DOM phenomenon but it helped her get 7th place Worldwide
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2017&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm

Its 10th OS & 2nd DOM

TR right now is 9th Wordlwide & 7th OS
Already outgrossed Wonder woman OS

What was interesting to me is that GOTG2 is only 9th OS
So its popularity is about even in DOM & OS

 

[mustapantteri]

Is it gonna outgross JL in China btw ??
really want it to

Most likely yes. It has better OW and slightly better hold than JL. Not to mention JL suffers a bit of negative wom due to the fanmade poster fiasco so they will lose some money on that.

 

[russian gal]

Most likely yes. It has better OW and slightly better hold than JL. Not to mention JL suffers a bit of negative wom due to the fanmade poster fiasco so they will lose some money on that.

AFAIK JL has an advantage there of no competition on this weekend

TR needs 110 if the people on BOT are right & JL can get to 108

unfortunately for me JL has good wom there t:

 

[RoryTate]

Box Office Reports is saying $3.49m for Tuesday. The domestic total for Thor: Ragnarok is now over $253m.

https://***********/BORReport/status/933422740278624257