Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[chicagodave]

So is 300mil a possibility? Seems like it should get there.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 21, 2017 - tuesday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $253,213,394 / $745,149,643


BO update...November 24, 2017 - friday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $267,318,394 / $759,254,643

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So is 300mil a possibility? Seems like it should get there.

Yeah, it will, somewhere around the weekend of the 9-10th I think.

 

[ultradog]

What do you think about the domestic over-under on T:R?

I am thinking it looks like roughly $320M domestic.

 

[los pollos]

What do you think about the domestic over-under on T:R?

I am thinking it looks like roughly $320M domestic.

Thor is at $277,468,394 as of 11/26/17, the weekend drops are looking very similar to Doctor strange. Assuming the future drops continue to follow DS, this movie should cap out somewhere between $311M and $313M. Worldwide, I think it's should end in the $840-842M range to take Wonder Woman's spot as the 8th highest grosser of the year (Star Wars is going to knock everything in the current top 10 down by 1).

Top grossing superhero films of 2017 worldwide: 1) S:HC 2)GotG 2 3)Thor R 4)Wonder Woman 5)JL 6) Logan

2017 was a good year for superhero films, 5 out of 6 movies from DC/Marvel lived up to or exceeded expectations both critically and at the box office.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 24, 2017 - friday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $267,318,394 / $759,254,643


BO update...November 26, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $277,468,394 / $790,068,643

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 277M
Foreign = 513M
Worldwide = 790M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm

 

[Iceman]

Ragnarok is murdering those other 3 films.

 

[RoryTate]

A shame that it didn't hit $800M worldwide this weekend. Still, a pretty decent holiday weekend take of $16.79M domestic and $11M international (both are estimates so they will change slightly with actuals).

Looks like it's a lock to cross $300M domestic, but not by a whole lot. Not sure if the worldwide will cross $850M now...it's probably going to be close on either side of that total.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Guaranteed to beat Wonder Woman now at 821 million.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's easily passing $300 million now. It's not even a question anymore at this point. Does it pass $850 million worldwide though?

 

[iEquinox]

Following Doctor Strange would get it to $310.3M domestic. Also looks like it has roughly $20M more left OS for a Foreign total a little over $530M. So the worldwide should finish at about $840M.

$850M still possible if it can reach $535M OS and hold on to more screens than Doctor Strange over Christmas for a domestic total closer to $315M, but finishing slightly below $850M seems more likely atm.

 

[warriorking]

JL would kill for those numbers about now ....

 

[Playco Armboy]

What would you guys estimate Thor's marketing budget to be?

 

[RoryTate]

The usual rule of thumb for marketing budget is that it is the same as the film's budget. So for Ragnarok that would be another $180M for marketing (on top of the estimated $180M to make the film). Now that may seem like a lot, but remember the great teaser trailer (the rights for The Immigrant Song would have cost Disney a pretty penny) and all the other trailers, TV advertising, web advertising, interviews with Chris Hemsworth and others on talk shows, promotional videos (including that hilarious faux motivational video from Cate Blanchett that I missed seeing until just recently), etc.

 

[iEquinox]

The usual rule of thumb for marketing budget is that it is the same as the film's budget. So for Ragnarok that would be another $180M for marketing (on top of the estimated $180M to make the film). Now that may seem like a lot, but remember the great teaser trailer (the rights for The Immigrant Song would have cost Disney a pretty penny) and all the other trailers, TV advertising, web advertising, interviews with Chris Hemsworth and others on talk shows, promotional videos (including that hilarious faux motivational video from Cate Blanchett that I missed seeing until just recently), etc.

That's not a very good rule of thumb. Marketing budgets and production budgets aren't very closely related. For example: Deadpool's marketing budget was over twice as high as its production budget, while Justice League's marketing budget is half of its production budget.

For MCU movies the marketing budget has always been lower than the production budget.

$180M would be as high as Age of Ultron, and quite a lot higher than Civil War($160M). I don't see why they'd spend that much on Ragnarok's marketing. Probably a bit more than Doctor Strange and GotG, but lower than Civil War. My guess would be $145M based on previous MCU marketing budgets.

 

[RoryTate]

For example: Deadpool's marketing budget was over twice as high as its production budget, while Justice League's marketing budget is half of its production budget.

For MCU movies the marketing budget has always been lower than the production budget.

Where do you get those exact numbers? Marketing expenses are held very close to the chest by businesses as far as I've ever heard.

And I'm not saying the production=marketing rule of thumb holds perfectly for every movie. I'm sure there is variation, but on average that doubling of budget has proven to be a fair indicator of financial success/failure, judging by the outcomes that we can observe: what movies get sequels, who continues to get hired, who gets fired, etc.

 

[iEquinox]

Where do you get those exact numbers? Marketing expenses are held very close to the chest by businesses as far as I've ever heard.

From deadline. They have access to multiple insider sources and experts/analysts so their numbers are very reliable.

And I'm not saying the production=marketing rule of thumb holds perfectly for every movie. I'm sure there is variation, but on average that doubling of budget has proven to be a fair indicator of financial success/failure, judging by the outcomes that we can observe: what movies get sequels, who continues to get hired, who gets fired, etc.

Not sure what you mean here. Doubling of budget how, by box office numbers?? If so, I believe there's a few misconceptions in your post.

 

[Playco Armboy]

My guess would be $145M based on previous MCU marketing budgets.

With just theatrical gross, Thor breaks even, then.

 

[TheVileOne]

P&A for a major film release isn't cheap. It's a whole separate expense that usually doesn't get reported.

Deadpool had a HUGE marketing campaign, so it doesn't surprise me that Fox threw some money around for it. There was clearly some major marketing muscle behind that film. Anyone who says the film was cheap to market is deluding themselves. But it paid off big time.

 

[HammerDown]

International comparison.

Overseas ---- TR -------- SM:HC

China -------- 110.4M ---- 118.8M
U.K. ---------- 38.6 ------- 39.5
Korea -------- 34.3 ------- 51.5
Brazil -------- 29.2 ------- 31.8
Australia ----- 24 --------- 19.7
Russia ------- 22.9 ------- 16.3
Mexico ------ 20.2 -------- 27
France ------ 19.7 -------- 18.7
Germany ---- 17.3 ------- 11.6
Indonesia --- 11.7 ------- 12.3
India -------- 11.5 ------- 11.4
Italy --------- 10.3 ------ 10.1
Taiwan ------- 10.2 ------ 9.6
Spain -------- 10.2 ------ 11.9
Japan -------- 9.3 ------- 25.3
Philipines ---- 7.8 ------- 7.5
Malaysia ----- 7.1 ------- 6.7

Totals:
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 545M
Thor Ragnarok - 512M *

*4 to 5 weeks into it's run.

 

[russian gal]

saw on reddit t:t:t:

 

[BigThor]

saw on reddit t:t:t:

Hilariousssssss.

 

[Iceman]

The Thanksgiving numbers were nice. Still gas left in the tank.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So 840-850 final?