Thor's box office competition

[BigThor]

I see Rio and Priest being competition!

Rio came out in America over a week ago and Thor doesn't come out until 1 week and 6 days from now.

 

[jmc]

No way will Thor open behind Fast 5, for one they're not opening in the same week, and for two the other Fast and Furious movies all had over 60% drops in week 2.

I'm a little suprised that the opening was like that since Chris is your guy's homeboy, but take that for what it's worth.

He's not that well known here, trust me. Just saying, don't count your chickens before they're hatched. I'm suspecting the box office is more reflection on the amount of 3D sessions being shown.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That's possible jmc, as I'm pretty sure there's probably been others who've been through the same things you went through to see the 2D version of Thor.

That's persistence right there.

 

[jmc]

I later found out a further 3 theatres near me also weren't showing a single 2D session. I'm just curious to know what the ratio of 2D to 3D sessions for Thor are over in the States, if it's anything like ours it could make for some interesting reading.

 

[flickchick85]

Now you're getting me all worried, jmc. I live in the Washington DC area, and I've never had a problem finding 2D presentations of 3D films. That had better not change, dammit.

Also, it wouldn't surprise me if Thor had a disappointing opening weekend. As I've mentioned in the past, I think most of the marketing has made it look silly to those of us less familiar with Thor. Sounds like word-of-mouth could (hopefully) save it if it does initially disappoint at the box office, though.

 

[Tony Stark]

He's not that well known here, trust me. Just saying, don't count your chickens before they're hatched. I'm suspecting the box office is more reflection on the amount of 3D sessions being shown.

I'm just saying Thor won't have any competition that weekend. In week 2 I'm not as confident, but Priest does look pretty stupid to me, not sure how others will see it.

There should be plenty of 2D and 3D sessions in the states. A movie like this is going to own at least two to three screens in a multiplex opening weekend.

Like I say I'm not prepared to give a number at this point. I'd like to see it open at least in the 70's, and I think that number is pretty well doable if the reviews remain in the high 80's and 90's on the RT scale.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Nobody is going to see Priest. Pirates is its only competition. But then Cars 2 and GL in June. If Thor can't make enough by then then that's it. It doesn't have long to make a solid amount.

 

[Tony Stark]

So long as Thor can avoid huge drops, it should easily make 250 mill domestically. Really of the comic movies coming out this summer, it's got the best spot of all of them, or at least has the most breathing room. Green Lantern probably has the worst in that, it has one week to make money, and then Cars 2, Transformers 3. Cap is almost as difficult following up to Potter, and then having Cowboys and Aliens the week after. I think X-men First Class has the 2nd best spot after Thor, because it should have two weeks at number 1, as the only competition is Judy Moody in it's second week. The only downside being that Pirates will still be running strong as well as Kung Fu panda.

 

[DieSmiling]

Nobody is going to see Priest. Pirates is its only competition. But then Cars 2 and GL in June. If Thor can't make enough by then then that's it. It doesn't have long to make a solid amount.

I agree. I think Bridesmaids will have a bigger opening weekend than Priest.

Thor's in a great spot, IMO. It's got two weeks to make most of its take, without a lot else going on. Fast 5 will opening big, but have a huge drop.

 

[Flemm]

I actually think a solid weekend for Fast 5 will be good for Thor. It's been a really slow year at the box office. Fast 5 will warm audiences up a bit.

 

[BigThor]

I actually think a solid weekend for Fast 5 will be good for Thor. It's been a really slow year at the box office. Fast 5 will warm audiences up a bit.

Exactly, other successful movies coming out around the same time as a film is not always a bad thing.

Sometimes another film will bring more audiences out to the theaters that usually wouldn't come and some of them will become interested in seeing other films as well.

 

[BigThor]

Now you're getting me all worried, jmc. I live in the Washington DC area, and I've never had a problem finding 2D presentations of 3D films. That had better not change, dammit.

Also, it wouldn't surprise me if Thor had a disappointing opening weekend. As I've mentioned in the past, I think most of the marketing has made it look silly to those of us less familiar with Thor. Sounds like word-of-mouth could (hopefully) save it if it does initially disappoint at the box office, though.

Really??? What's so silly about it?

I see Thor commercials on tv all the time and everytime someone's in the room they say how kick ass Thor looks.

I mean literally "no one" has ever said anything negative when I brought up Thor or showed them any of the trailers or tv spots.

 

[hatebox]

Fast 5 will be huge. It'll at least equal its predecessor's opening weekend of 70m, but the bizarrely favourable reviews could mean it has a bit of legs too. What that means for Thor it's hard to say, but I suspect a 50-60m opening weekend followed by a leggy run.

 

[BigThor]

That's pretty understandable, but I think it's gonna do a good bit more than TIH's opening weekend (54 million)so I'm along the lines of 75-90 million

 

[The Morningstar]

Fast 5 is getting good reviews?!?

I think Cap will have the biggest problem box office wise. Harry Potter will destroy the box office.

GL isn't looking so hot either, with Cars 2 and Bayformers following it.

 

[BigThor]

I know it might sound strange, but I'm looking forward to TFOTM because I can enjoy it for what it most likely will be (action packed).

 

[The Morningstar]

Ehh i'm not. Transformers 2 was sooooo utterly boring. And for a film with that much action, that's saying something.

 

[BigThor]

I was entertained, I guess Optimus going beast mode mixed with various other kick ass fight scenes caused me overlook most of the travesties of the film (at that time anyways).

 

[Doctor Jones]

edit.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I agree. I think Bridesmaids will have a bigger opening weekend than Priest.

Thor's in a great spot, IMO. It's got two weeks to make most of its take, without a lot else going on. Fast 5 will opening big, but have a huge drop.

Yeah, the first week of May is always pretty good. It has no competition its opening weekend too.

Fast 5 will be huge. It'll at least equal its predecessor's opening weekend of 70m, but the bizarrely favourable reviews could mean it has a bit of legs too. What that means for Thor it's hard to say, but I suspect a 50-60m opening weekend followed by a leggy run.

This sounds like what would happen. It might open bigger than TIH. But Hulk is more known, despite the fact it came off of Hulk. In a way, people knew it was still Hulk.

But I just thought that with Priset and Bridsmaids coming out a week later, Thor still has a good chance of keeping its money up. I think chicks will go see Bridesmaids, which could detract from Thor. BUt hopefully it will have a solid enough second weekend. Then good WOM will be its savior.

I don't remember what happened with IM when Indy opened a couple weeks later. How did that hold up?

Anyway, what were all you guys predicting for opening weekend when IM was about to come out?

 

[Vartha]

Personally I think if a Multiplex has two screens showing Thor ONE should be 2d the other 3d.
If there enough people who've either already bad experiences with 3d being bad or getting headaches from 3D the 2d should be available. Otherwise it can backfire and Thor can loose sales.

 

[THOR]

I am hoping for a huge box office so that we get at least two more Thor movies. I think domestically it will track very much like Clash of The Titans did last year:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=clashofthetitans10.htm

$61 Million opening weekend
$163 Million Domestically


Fantasy/Gods, 3D, first big movie of the summer and not a huge built in fanbase may make this movie struggle to hit $200 Million. Word of mouth will need to be good for Thor to soar past that number and stay at the top of the box office 2 weeks in a row. As the film opens on a Friday locally look at the Saturday box office numbers, and see if they are up or down. If the Saturday take rises over the Friday number then movie will have good legs, if it drops over 10% Friday to Saturday then the movie will not.

I hope this movie makes $250M +, but the chances of this happening are small. I will be doing my part and seeing the film in Imax 3D, and 2D opening weekend! t:

 

[kedrell]

Yeah, the first week of May is always pretty good. It has no competition its opening weekend too.



This sounds like what would happen. It might open bigger than TIH. But Hulk is more known, despite the fact it came off of Hulk. In a way, people knew it was still Hulk.

But I just thought that with Priset and Bridsmaids coming out a week later, Thor still has a good chance of keeping its money up. I think chicks will go see Bridesmaids, which could detract from Thor. BUt hopefully it will have a solid enough second weekend. Then good WOM will be its savior.

I don't remember what happened with IM when Indy opened a couple weeks later. How did that hold up?

Anyway, what were all you guys predicting for opening weekend when IM was about to come out?

It held up pretty well. But IJ4 was IM1's 4th weekend. IM1 benefited greatly from Speed Racer bombing in IM1's 2nd weekend and Narnia2 disappointing in IM1's 3rd weekend. By the time IJ4 came around, IM1 didn't even really need to care how it held up against it anymore. The dye had well been cast by that point.

 

[kedrell]

I still think 250M is too high for me to justify thinking it'll get to at present. 200-225M is more believable to me. Probably open in the 60M range(maybe low 70's at best). But I think it'll have good legs.

 

[kedrell]

Fast 5 is getting good reviews?!?

I think Cap will have the biggest problem box office wise. Harry Potter will destroy the box office.

GL isn't looking so hot either, with Cars 2 and Bayformers following it.

Don't be suprised when it does the same range as every other HP film. WB is gonna pay a price for splitting the last book into 2 movies. I heard loads of people hating on the first half last year for precisely that reason. A single HP 7 movie might have been able to break out of the HP box office range in much the same way that StarWars III did. But this splitting the last book into 2 movies thing has pissed off quite a few casual fans. And HP fans are a bit more demanding than, oh say...Twilight fans(so when the same thing is done in THAT franchise, I don't expect a similar result). HP diehards will flock to "HP7 & 1/2 Part 2: This Is It! We Promise Not To Milk This Anymore...Honest!" like they have with every other HP film.