Why Can't DC Get it right? - Part 1

[jmc]

I think JL can succeed in spite of BvS.

If JL scores $1.3-$1.4B at the box office and get stellear reviews, I won't be one of those who say, see BvS succeeded.

These type of box office figures are in all honestly becoming just far too ambitious, hell I'd go so far to say it's just a flat out ridiculous number to want to achieve. The reality is you can't create a perfect storm, sometimes it just happens. Zootopia crossed a billion the other day, who the hell would have predicted that? No-one. Expectations need to start coming down in terms of box office. JL at this point in time shouldn't expect anything more than what BvS got, if anything it's likely to not match it.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

These type of box office figures are in all honestly becoming just far too ambitious, hell I'd go so far to say it's just a flat out ridiculous number to want to achieve. The reality is you can't create a perfect storm, sometimes it just happens. Zootopia crossed a billion the other day, who the hell would have predicted that? No-one. Expectations need to start coming down in terms of box office. JL at this point in time shouldn't expect anything more than what BvS got, if anything it's likely to not match it.

I agree. That is why BvS approaching $900 million world wide shouldn't be viewed as failure.

 

[Erzengel]

Those figures were more of a, "Hey DC/WB knew what they were doing all along. We were wrong to doubt them." IF they managed to turn JL around. I'm still one of those who 's not going to look at BvS differently regardless if JL is successful or not.

I agree. That is why BvS approaching $900 million world wide shouldn't be viewed as failure.

But they shouldn't be doing cartwheels either and it's still creeping towards $875M, it's not going to come that close to $900. Semantics, I know.

 

[N30n]

I agree. That is why BvS approaching $900 million world wide shouldn't be viewed as failure.

Tell that to Warner Brothers.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

Tell that to Warner Brothers.

Trying to defend it as much as possible !
LOL.
I would hate to see DC fail and only be exposed to a Marvel universe in the cinema.

 

[StormC]

These type of box office figures are in all honestly becoming just far too ambitious, hell I'd go so far to say it's just a flat out ridiculous number to want to achieve. The reality is you can't create a perfect storm, sometimes it just happens. Zootopia crossed a billion the other day, who the hell would have predicted that? No-one. Expectations need to start coming down in terms of box office. JL at this point in time shouldn't expect anything more than what BvS got, if anything it's likely to not match it.

It feels like after 2015 had five billion dollar movies, people are starting to take a billion for granted.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

It feels like after 2015 had five billion dollar movies, people are starting to take a billion for granted.

I agree. You should be fortunate to hit that mark, not expect it.

 

[Flint Marko]

Well to be frank, BvS should have hit a billion. If the WOM and reviews weren't so bad, and it had decent legs, it would have.

Who saw South Park's E3 teaser trailer reveal? They clowned the entire CBM landscape, but arguably the biggest potshot was the one aimed at DC. You could even hear the crowd react.

It was pretty killer.

 

[T"Challa]

Expectations have definitely gotten out of hand. There's a very good chance no CBM out grosses IM3 until maybe Infinity War 2. Its possible the first Avengers was the ceiling for superhero box office, the audience for these movies has been set and i dont think its going to expand that drastically over the next 4-5 yrs. Great movies will fall between that 1 bill-1.3 bill range, unless Ben Affleck drops a TDK-esque culture busting batman film.

 

[kguillou]

I too think the first Avengers was the ceiling for superhero movies. It was the first time novelty phenomenon that can never be replicated. Even if Justice League is a hit with the critics, I don't think the film is going to make more than 1.1 billion, TDK numbers. And you know what, you should be considered a big success. These studios need to stop aiming for the outliers like Furious 7 and Jurassic World and Avengers, those films captured lightning in a bottle and delivered the right thing at the right time. But 1.5/1.6 billion shouldn't be the standard and the expectation.

Any film grossing over $800 million should be considered a big success. If it crosses the billion $$ stratosphere, great! But do not go in with that expectation and keep your production budgets in check.

 

[jmc]

I agree. That is why BvS approaching $900 million world wide shouldn't be viewed as failure.

In the end WB are not going to make all that much from BvS. It's essentially a bronze medal victory, better than nothing.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

It is a shame something that makes $900 million is like placing 3rd.
The budget says it cost $250 million to make, I ASSUMED that included the money to market it as well. Im not sure why they dont include that figure.
Even double the production budget to include the marketing, that brings us too $500 million.
And thats probably way too much I would think.
So where does the other $372 go?
Isnt that all profit?

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Let's be realistic. What are the chances of that happening?

A million to one lol.

 

[Zarex]

It is a shame something that makes $900 million is like placing 3rd.
The budget says it cost $250 million to make, I ASSUMED that included the money to market it as well. Im not sure why they dont include that figure.
Even double the production budget to include the marketing, that brings us too $500 million.
And thats probably way too much I would think.
So where does the other $372 go?
Isnt that all profit?

It's tough to get an actual accounting of revenues and expenses on these things, but here's a rough attempt:

China = 25% of 96M = $24M
Foreign = 40% of 446M = $178M
NA = 50% of 330M = $165M

Total BO revenues for WB are approximately $367M. If the production budget is $250M (per BO Mojo) and WB paid approximately $100M on top of that in advertising and promotional costs....... you can see why BvS is going to struggle to break even at the BO.

 

[Erzengel]

http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-opening-weekend-box-office-records-1201726300/

This article said that if BvS made $925M, it would make an estimated $200 profit. So, with not even $875M, that profit is $150M.

 

[kguillou]

It is a shame something that makes $900 million is like placing 3rd.
The budget says it cost $250 million to make, I ASSUMED that included the money to market it as well. Im not sure why they dont include that figure.
Even double the production budget to include the marketing, that brings us too $500 million.
And thats probably way too much I would think.
So where does the other $372 go?
Isnt that all profit?

It's complicated but no its not. IF the total budget, including marketing equaled to $500 million then the film would need to gross double its budget to break even....meaning a billion $$. I don't think the total budget is that high but we do know WB spent a TON on this movie, and this is the problem we're talking about.

Just as a random example. The first Kick Ass movie cost about $30 million. the movie would've needed $60 mill to break even. The movie made $96, thus making $36 million in profit. Kick Ass 2 cost the same amount but only made $60 million. The film just broke even, no profit therefore no more sequels.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

It's tough to get an actual accounting of revenues and expenses on these things, but here's a rough attempt:

China = 25% of 96M = $24M
Foreign = 40% of 446M = $178M
NA = 50% of 330M = $165M

Total BO revenues for WB are approximately $367M. If the production budget is $250M (per BO Mojo) and WB paid approximately $100M on top of that in advertising and promotional costs....... you can see why BvS is going to struggle to break even at the BO.

Thank you for the break down.
Here's another question....do we believe these studios , who probably use creative accounting to hide how much they make?

 

[Zarex]

Thank you for the break down.
Here's another question....do we believe these studios , who probably use creative accounting to hide how much they make?

There have been notable examples of highly successful films that have never shown a paper profit in order to prevent stakeholders from realizing revenue from gross points. But that type of thing is done on the financial reporting on LLCs studios set up for individual films, and is done by dumping studio costs and other such nonsense into the production budget.

Studios want to have it both ways. They want to tell their investors that these films are making lots of money while at the same time telling the original author, who stands to get a bigger check when the film reaches certain profit thresholds, that the film is still in the red.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It is a shame something that makes $900 million is like placing 3rd.
The budget says it cost $250 million to make, I ASSUMED that included the money to market it as well. Im not sure why they dont include that figure.
Even double the production budget to include the marketing, that brings us too $500 million.
And thats probably way too much I would think.
So where does the other $372 go?
Isnt that all profit?

No. The theaters and distributors also get their chunk. We never know the exact numbers (it varies by country, weekend, etc.), but in general it works out to about 50% going to the studio and 50% going to other partners. So if a movie grosses $1 billion, the studio would only get roughly $500 million.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

There have been notable examples of highly successful films that have never shown a paper profit in order to prevent stakeholders from realizing revenue from gross points. But that type of thing is done on the financial reporting on LLCs studios set up for individual films, and is done by dumping studio costs and other such nonsense into the production budget.

Studios want to have it both ways. They want to tell their investors that these films are making lots of money while at the same time telling the original author, who stands to get a bigger check when the film reaches certain profit thresholds, that the film is still in the red.

So you seem like the right person to ask the question.......does WB stand to show a profit at all from BvS ?

 

[Zarex]

So you seem like the right person to ask the question.......does WB stand to show a profit at all from BvS ?

I don't know if your confidence is warranted, but I appreciate it!

Between streaming, Blu-Ray, pay TV, basic cable and broadcast rights WB should make a decent profit from BvS. But it doesn't appear as though the studio will make much, if anything, from the theatrical presentation.

 

[Peyton Westlake]

I don't know if your confidence is warranted, but I appreciate it!

Between streaming, Blu-Ray, pay TV, basic cable and broadcast rights WB should make a decent profit from BvS. But it doesn't appear as though the studio will make much, if anything, from the theatrical presentation.

Well you seem to have some knowledge about it more than the average Joe.
Whether self taught or not, i admit when Im not educated in such matters.

Anyhow... I hope that doesnt put a huge wrench in the wheel for future DC movies on the horizon.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Well you seem to have some knowledge about it more than the average Joe.
Whether self taught or not, i admit when Im not educated in such matters.

Anyhow... I hope that doesnt put a huge wrench in the wheel for future DC movies on the horizon.

Ordinarily, BvS would likely be fairly (although, not spectacularly) successful. The problem is that it isn't a standalone film. It is supposed to be the foundation upon which the DCEU is built. The hype will never be higher than it was for Batman and Superman's first film together. And with the very poor reception, there is a very good chance that the box office nosedives for Justice League.

 

[Erzengel]

Also it's a November release, where the highest weekend gross have been the Harry Potter, Twilight and Hunger Games movies with $158M ceiling.

That's lower than BvS $166M in March.

Not that things couldn't happen but it's 2 weeks after Thor, a week before a Disney Animated movie and a month before Episode VIII. But then again, BvS opened up to no real competition and didn't make the gross it could have.

 

[Loki882]

Yeah that's not exactly a great slot to be opening in, there's going to be A LOT of competition swirling around. BVS opening in March, with not real competition around at the time, was at least a good idea (even if it didn't end up working out as well as WB/DC would have liked/hoped).