Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[X-Maniac]

It's not nostalgia, dofp is the proof.In the Rogue cut were magical moments.Always the best,Always the original family mutant on screen.

Admittedly, some of those ladies would look good in an X-Women movie, but I think this clinging to the old cast is not really a good idea.

The franchise is really going to get messy if they keep flitting between two different casts playing the same characters. Best to stick to the new young cast, where they can correct mistakes made with the original films and develop more teamwork, more fleshed-out characters and comic-accurate relationships and connections.

Elsa said it best: Let it Go!

 

[TheNewSlayer]

I'd love to see a new x-men movie with the original cast again.

 

[superweirdo87]

DOFP does support the idea that the old cast has an advantage, but I don't think their presence was the only factor in the movie's success. It was also well liked and well reviewed. Many of you point to 1st Class to say that reviews don't matter and things are the same with good and bad reviews. Research, though, shows reviews do influence box office, but the effect is on legs/multiplier.

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses
https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/kennedy.pdf

That can be seen in X-Men as well:
X-Men 2.89 Metacritic 64
X2 2.52 Metacritic 68
X3 2.28 Metacritic 58
Origins 2.11 Metacritic 40
First Class 2.66 Metacritic 65
Wolverine 2.49 Metacritic 60
DOFP 2.57 Metacritic 74

 

[GuestStar2004]

DOFP also had time travel and robots which if you compare it to the previous X-men movies it was a pretty new thing for the series.

 

[superweirdo87]

DOFP also had time travel and robots which if you compare it to the previous X-men movies it was a pretty new thing for the series.

Absolutely! I think the premise of it looked interesting, at least more so than big battle with destruction.

 

[kineticist]

Finally passed First Class's domestic number.

 

[DarkSouls]

So where do people see this ending up by the very end? If I were hopeful I'd say $600 million but if I were reasonable I'd say $550 million. I'd love to see domestic numbers pass the budget, but that seems unlikely and it'll probably just pass the numbers of the original X-Men. Overseas, it'd be cool to see it pass Deadpool's numbers and that seems possible but not likely.

 

[kineticist]

My guess is 540-550m.

 

[Superhero 101]

550 is the max I would say 540 is the best case I don't see Japan adding much maybe 10-15 million

 

[BeholdMe]

Admittedly, some of those ladies would look good in an X-Women movie, but I think this clinging to the old cast is not really a good idea.

The franchise is really going to get messy if they keep flitting between two different casts playing the same characters. Best to stick to the new young cast, where they can correct mistakes made with the original films and develop more teamwork, more fleshed-out characters and comic-accurate relationships and connections.

Elsa said it best: Let it Go!

 

[superweirdo87]

I think 525-529WW is the final number, I think.
362.3 current OS
2M besides China and Japan 364.3
6.1M from Japan 370.4
~4-5M from China 374.4 - 375.4M

374-375M OS

152-155 Domestic

526-530M WW.

 

[Wildcard]

Finally passed First Class's domestic number.

Still not really a fact to write home about.

Luckily (for Fox), even though this isn't a bomb at least the numbers aren't totally abysmal.

 

[Sithborg]

"Mixed" seems to be the keyword for this movie.

Though it showed some real strength holding like it did against Warcraft in China.

 

[Xrated48]

Should end its run close to 600 million ww

 

[psylockolussus]

but I think this clinging to the old cast is not really a good idea.

When a 2016 X-Men movie couldn't even outgross a 2003 X-Men movie or a critical panned 2009 Wolverine movie. I don't see why its not a good idea. If anything, this could just mean that the GA couldn't LET GO of the original cast and they weren't that interested to watch a film featuring younger versions..... If these younger version are really the future of the series, that should be transparent to the box-office numbers.... and that is simple NOT the case. So don't be surprised if people continue to rally about the OT cast's return especially given that Apocalypse is not even gonna outgross Origins: Wolverine in North America. Thats pretty embarassing.

X3 still managed to be the top grossing X-Men film in North America after a mixed reception. Apocalypse can't do that.... geez.

 

[Sithborg]

I love the assumption that the old cast would result in a higher box office return. We can't know that. Though we do know that the old cast would cost much more than the current cast.

 

[psylockolussus]

If the original cast returns in 2018 or 2019... they would need to go earn the goodwill from the people again. No thanks to Apocalypse.

Anyway, the sequel for DOFP should have been with the original cast. I don't care if the original cast is the more expensive cast, at least with the box-office, the films that featured them performed better at the box-office. And I bet DOFP would have earned MORE if they featured the OT cast more since they were all over the marketing.

Personally, I only want back Halle, Famke, Marsden, Anna, Kelsey, Shawn and Ellen. And also bring back the Colossus from Deadpool then include Channing Tatum as Gambit.

And for me, its not really much about the cast. I want to see Iceman, Rogue, Shadowcat and Colossus again. While I want to see Jean, Storm and Cyclops as adults.

 

[def28]

The old cast brought in quite a bit more audiences. We do know that.

First Class and DOFP should have had enough good will to bring the series back to high numbers. That wasn't the case here. It will be interesting how Wolverine does.

 

[psylockolussus]

I hope Wolverine 3 outgrosses Wolverine 2 in North America/Worldwide. But its pretty obvious that Wolverine with the X-Men SELLS more than Wolverine alone. Professor X is also in the film, but it is still a Wolverine solo.

Anyway, they aren't using the X-Men to their best potential if we are only gonna get solo movies and period X-Men films from now on. We should have been in X-Men 6 to 7 by now and the likes of Gambit/Emma should have already joined the team or at least interacted with Rogue, Cyclops. But no, they were introduced in the prequels and look where they are now, 1 is done and 1 is recasted.

 

[DavidHaller]

I personally have NO emotional connection to the old cast to be honest (besides maybe Magneto, Xavier and Wolverine).
But McAvoy and Fassbender replaced them phenomenally! Halle Berry was always a lackluster Storm and Famke was fine but mostly boring and without charm. The only member of the old cast I truely miss is Ellen Page!! But enough with this nostalgia. Re-cast Wolverine with Tom Hardy and let's stop pretending that the old cast was anything special or is well known. Besides Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry I doubt anybody from the general audience knows and cares who played Cyclops, Jean Grey or Nightcrawler in the past.

The new young cast is fantastic!! Let's go on with them!

I think what killed "X-Men: Apocalypse" in the United States was clearly the critical reception. Especially after 'Batman vs. Superman' many people trust critics because hollywood blockbuster movies are a) very expensive and b) often turning out to be horrible piles of ****! (sorry! but no sorry!). when i have money to go and see these movies I only go to critical acclaimed ones like Civil War or Days of Future Past because movies like 'Batman vs. Superman' are simply offensively dumb.

 

[def28]

I hope Wolverine 3 outgrosses Wolverine 2 in North America/Worldwide. But its pretty obvious that Wolverine with the X-Men SELLS more than Wolverine alone. Professor X is also in the film, but it is still a Wolverine solo.

I agree, but I think there's a chance this one may do better since Logan post DOFP should bring in more money and it's his alleged last film. That should change anticipation. At least I'd think so.

Anyway, they aren't using the X-Men to their best potential if we are only gonna get solo movies and period X-Men films from now on. We should have been in X-Men 6 to 7 by now and the likes of Gambit/Emma should have already joined the team or at least interacted with Rogue, Cyclops. But no, they were introduced in the prequels and look where they are now, 1 is done and 1 is recasted.

They should be much further and established with characters then they are I agree with that. It's taking far too long for them to catch up and establish essentials well.

 

[psylockolussus]

I agree, but I think there's a chance this one may do better since Logan post DOFP should bring in more money and it's his alleged last film. That should change anticipation. At least I'd think so.

I could see Fox marketing this as the final Wolverine movie, so yeah that should definitely help!

 

[psylockolussus]

I personally have NO emotional connection to the old cast to be honest (besides maybe Magneto, Xavier and Wolverine).
But McAvoy and Fassbender replaced them phenomenally! Halle Berry was always a lackluster Storm and Famke was fine but mostly boring and without charm. The only member of the old cast I truely miss is Ellen Page!! But enough with this nostalgia. Re-cast Wolverine with Tom Hardy and let's stop pretending that the old cast was anything special or is well known. Besides Hugh Jackman and Halle Berry I doubt anybody from the general audience knows and cares who played Cyclops, Jean Grey or Nightcrawler in the past.

The new young cast is fantastic!! Let's go on with them!

I think what killed "X-Men: Apocalypse" in the United States was clearly the critical reception. Especially after 'Batman vs. Superman' many people trust critics because hollywood blockbuster movies are a) very expensive and b) often turning out to be horrible piles of ****! (sorry! but no sorry!). when i have money to go and see these movies I only go to critical acclaimed ones like Civil War or Days of Future Past.

Doesn't matter if you weren't attached to them or if you liked the new versions, if people don't show up at the theater.

Out of all the 9 X-Men films so far. Its First Class and Apocalypse that did not/will not meet its production budget to its North America box-office gross. Do we need a third one?

 

[GuestStar2004]

Tbh when it comes to dofp success if you compare it to the man of steel and BVS, BVS made more then man of steel but did it make more purely because of batman? Or did it make more because of the concept of batman vs superman? which very much falls into the same thing here, did the OC bring in the extra audience for DOFP or the high sci fi concept? Wolverine gets alot of credit for these movies and yet doesnt compete with alot of other solo heroes.

Guardians and deadpool has shown you do not need familiar faces and if this franchise does then perhaps its just standing on crutches right now with no medical care

 

[DavidHaller]

Doesn't matter if you weren't attached to them or if you liked the new versions, if people don't show at the theater.

Out of all the 9 X-Men films so far. Its First Class and Apocalypse that did not/will not meet its production budget to its North America box-office gross.

well, difficult discussion without any data to back up our opinions. lol

But I think WOLVERINE is actually a very important factor here (more than the rest of the cast) + critical acclaim! 'Days of Future Past' is just PHENOMENAL and loved by the general masses. Of course people go and see a fantastic movie like this.