Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[psylockolussus]

Wolverine seems to be the big head scratcher of an issue facing the franchise at the moment. I don't want a reboot either but I don't know how they're going to proceed with/without Wolverine.

They are not gonna reboot anytime soon. Wolverine 3 and Deadpool 2 are coming out very soon.

Maybe if we get another box-office disappointment with the new cast/FC cast, then maybe. But we are heading to the X-Men movie #10 next year and I doubt Fox would want to start from scratch. They would at least try to redeem the series or milk X-Men's dwindling popularity at the box-office.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

People forget that DOFP didn't break 750 mill and it still did better than WS. For some reason back then everyone was saying spinning WS like Marvel weren't dissapointed it didn't do better than an always underdoged X-Men.

1. TWS cost a lot less than DOFP. It didn't need to make as much.
2. TWS did better domestically where the studio keeps the highest percentage of the gross. Ex. Roughly every dollar made in the US is worth 2.5x every dollar made in China.
3. TWS had separate merchandise streams available (toys, etc.) that weren't available at all for DOFP.

Also, TWS was hardly the peak of the franchise (currently it is #6 in the MCU) where DOFP appears to be. The next Captain America movie grossed $400 million more than TWS. The next X-Men movie (not counting Deadpool) grossed $200 million less than DOFP.

 

[superweirdo87]

"And if Fox really expected this movie to perform like this, way lower than DOFP's box-office numbers then something is wrong with them. This movie should have kept the momentum, not lose it!

There are problems with Fox, but expecting a smaller number is reasonable. "Momentum" may not be there with franchise movies, as opposed to reversion to the mean.

To use a few examples, "Catching Fire" had the strongest box office of any Hunger Games movie, but Mockingjay Part 1 declined significantly after.

Shrek grossed 267.7M, its sequel got 441.2M, and #3 fell to 322.7

POTC "Black Pearl" grossed 305M, its sequel made 423.3M, but the sequel to that made 309.4

Is there really momentum?


Fox may have suspected they were coming off a high and numbers would fall.

 

[2kt09]

As noticed by trying to lower the budget.

 

[superweirdo87]

Also, in Brazil and Mexico, XMA lagged in large part due to the exchange rates. It beat DOFP in local currency in those markets. The dollar is stronger and local currency has fallen in Mexico and Brazil.

In fairness, there were few markets where XMA beat DOFP. But Mexico and Brazil involve exchange rates and the consumers did not deliver a much more negative verdict.

 

[def28]

Nothing "deserves" a billion. They have to earn it. And the X-men are having a small slump in popularity. And that's okay. As long as the box office isn't a disaster, we will still be getting these movies.

This is a 16 year old franchise. It is going to have its ups and downs in popularity. And that's okay. The only numbers that fans should worry about is if it is enough to get a sequel.

I said closer to a billion then 500m. Which DOFP almost did. The stories and characters I've read for decades definitely deserve that. Maybe others don't see the potential for this franchise anymore cause of this film for whatever reason. But I don't agree with that. The X-Men do deserve to get there, and have so for awhile. I don't agree with barely making sequel numbers being the goal either. That puts this series in danger regarding the next film. What if the next film is great but because of Apocalypse the returns are the worst they have been not making a profit?

The X-Men already had to get out of a slump 5 years back, that's not that long ago.

 

[Kanon]

The stories and characters I've read for decades do. Maybe you don't see the potential for this franchise anymore for whatever reason. But I don't agree with you. The X-Men do deserve to get there.

The franchise has potential, but it has been wasted over the years. To achive a billion, you need the audience emotionally connected to a solid universe, not random characters appearing everywhere, incarnations contradicting each other.

Who is to buy emotion from these characters when they could reboot everything, or part of it, for the next movie? Imagine people that cared for characters like Angel in X3, Gambit in XMO, Azrael and Emma Frost in FC, Nightcrawler in X2, and expected to see more. Why would they invest in any new characters? Fox had no idea what they were doing, probably don't have idea yet, and they built a very weak foundation for quick bucks.

 

[def28]

I agree, they won't get anywhere wasting characters like they do.

But somebody there has to wake up and go these characters deserve more.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I don't think anybody is expecting a billion out of X-Men at this point, but it sure as heck should be closer to $700 million than $500 million.

 

[superweirdo87]

Nothing "deserves" a billion. They have to earn it. And the X-men are having a small slump in popularity. And that's okay. As long as the box office isn't a disaster, we will still be getting these movies.

This is a 16 year old franchise. It is going to have its ups and downs in popularity. And that's okay. The only numbers that fans should worry about is if it is enough to get a sequel.

I agree that fans need not obsess over money. We should just hope it does well and it works out decently for the studio. Quality and whether we get what we want is what we should care about.

Finally, while some great movies have made a ton, it goes without saying that some things that boost money and gross do not necessarily make a better movie. And the pressure to perform at that level can result in making safe and boring choices.

 

[Wildcard]

I don't think anybody is expecting a billion out of X-Men at this point, but it sure as heck should be closer to $700 million than $500 million.

I do think X-Men could be in the billion dollar club, it'd just take the right team, the right story & the perfect execution. It could've happened this time had audiences not felt the "been there, done that"-itis.

But yeah, no one should ever just expect a film to make a billion. Pretty much every billion dollar grosser wasn't predicted beforehand. Take Zootopia, for example.

It just takes that perfect storm.

 

[psylockolussus]

Zootopia was just amazing!

It is really a missed opportunity for Fox that after Days of Future Past, they went back to the past setting / origin or prequel routine. The movie, that in my opinion, that they should have made was the cast that were in the new future (and thats including Wolverine). That would definitely earn more at the box-office than this one and the upcoming Wolverine film. And they could have teased a possible cross-over with Deadpool or X-Force, a cameo for Gambit, then one of the older cast members tease a spin-off to New Mutants.

 

[NotNickFury]

I think if this X-Men universe had someone like a Kevin Feige sort or someone who was able to map out the universe like Marvel Studios has, we probably could get those sort of crossovers. Right now, it sort of feels like they're playing it by ear.

I could be wrong since I'm not in the meetings, and it's difficult to approach this universe without comparing it to what Marvel Studios has laid out, but it does need a sort of visionary at the head and it seems like Kinberg isn't that person.

 

[psylockolussus]

Definitely, Kevin Fiege is a genius, he knows his stuff, he knows what he's doing and he's a big fanboy of the Marvel Comics and he really get these comics! Like I'm not a fan of MCU's sense of humour and their villains, but visually, things look great and they represent their heroes very well.

 

[Sithborg]

The problem with this grand "universe" building is that you kind of set up a house of cards. I think DC has shown what happens if you your grand universe building hits a major bump.

I'm sure it is nice having a butt load of movies to look forward to, but I do like the slightly more open method Fox is taking.

 

[psylockolussus]

Fox may have suspected they were coming off a high and numbers would fall.

by ditching the original cast which was a big part of DOFP's marketing and the prequel set-up. I hope they surely did. That was evident in the previous spin-offs/prequels (with Deadpool as the only exception).

 

[Erzengel]

I'd rather have a a grand universe than a disjointed continuity.

 

[Smilodon]

The franchise has potential, but it has been wasted over the years. To achive a billion, you need the audience emotionally connected to a solid universe, not random characters appearing everywhere, incarnations contradicting each other.

Who is to buy emotion from these characters when they could reboot everything, or part of it, for the next movie? Imagine people that cared for characters like Angel in X3, Gambit in XMO, Azrael and Emma Frost in FC, Nightcrawler in X2, and expected to see more. Why would they invest in any new characters? Fox had no idea what they were doing, probably don't have idea yet, and they built a very weak foundation for quick bucks.

I totally agree with this, but things like Nightcrawler's absence in X3 happened due to Cumming not wanting to do the makeup, Gambit/Angel were in poorly received films that almost tanked the franchise which is why they're kinda put aside like the cast of the Incredible Hulk etc. It doesn't all fall into place so easily with certain characters.

They're trying to build an attachment, but it's with a narrow focus of characters of course and it's not enough to sustain a franchise that's gone on as long as this. I would argue the audience is invested in the few characters that have been fleshed out in this franchise (that's why DOFP is all about Logan and FC4, those are the only people we've built up enough relationships with to give it that emotional weight), but it's not enough and just trying to rely on the iconography from the comics as in the case of Apocalypse with characters like Scott, Jean, Apocalypse, Psylocke etc. isn't enough for sure to have that continuous rewarding experience that'll build up box office returns.

I do think we have to give Scott, Jean,Storm, Kurt, Peter etc. some time to build up their relationships and Apocalypse might be the first step that'll link more of the films together (particularly if it connects to Wolverine III which will most likely connect with the present day Deadpool stuff down the line), but the treatment of characters like Psylocke/Angel/Jubilee in 2016 is just showing that they haven't learned all the way yet and that needs to change in addition to a more fresh take on the flagship franchise.

 

[psylockolussus]

Nightcrawler's absence in X3 happened due to Cumming not wanting to do the makeup

Wrong. Kinberg and Zak Penn didn't have much role for Nightcrawler in X3 and they just decided to remove him from the script. And they had no further plans in using Gambit/Angel at the time those movies were released.

I'd rather have a a grand universe than a disjointed continuity.

Thats what I want too!

The X-Men film series is just so all over the place right now. Like I don't get what the advantage that they are getting by going back and forth in the past/present time periods. Just put the X-Men, in the present.

 

[NotNickFury]

I do think we have to give Scott, Jean,Storm, Kurt, Peter etc. some time to build up their relationships and Apocalypse might be the first step that'll link more of the films together (particularly if it connects to Wolverine III which will most likely connect with the present day Deadpool stuff down the line), but the treatment of characters like Psylocke/Angel/Jubilee in 2016 is just showing that they haven't learned all the way yet and that needs to change in addition to a more fresh take on the flagship franchise.

This I would agree with about the younger characters. While I liked Apocalypse and understand the mixed reaction, that final shot of the new team in the Danger Room gave me a very Age of Ultron vibe with the new slate of Avengers. It feels like the start to a new beginning and chance to see them function as a unit.

You know, more scenes like the mall one or Jean and Erik rebuilding the mansion show that, in between everything Apocalypse had, there's that remembrance that the X-Men are a family, even if the films don't always reflect that. Now it's hopefully just a matter of getting a strong writer and director that can keep that bond going.

 

[Smilodon]

This I would agree with about the younger characters. While I liked Apocalypse and understand the mixed reaction, that final shot of the new team in the Danger Room gave me a very Age of Ultron vibe with the new slate of Avengers. It feels like the start to a new beginning and chance to see them function as a unit.

You know, more scenes like the mall one or Jean and Erik rebuilding the mansion show that, in between everything Apocalypse had, there's that remembrance that the X-Men are a family, even if the films don't always reflect that. Now it's hopefully just a matter of getting a strong writer and director that can keep that bond going.

I think Singer and co. knew that they wanted to convey the ultimate message of the X-Men being about family (hence the incredibly cheesy lines about family throughout the film), that just got bogged down in a overstuffed film that kept didn't do enough new things and were overly concerned with certain superficial comic book aspects that diverted the film away from having a decent story. It's unfortunate, because this film tries pretty hard but just comes up really short.

 

[NotNickFury]

Which is why I hope the next main film, should it happen, be some smaller threat. Between Apocalypse and the time travel in Days of Future Past, we've seen the X-Men battle their share of large scale threats. Something smaller going forward would be nice, but again, all depends on who writes and directs.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Problem with going smaller is that these movies can't be treated like a tv show where you have a small filler episode inbetween the bigger scale episodes so every movie is gonna have to feel big either in concept or visual.

 

[Tymminator]

The problem with this grand "universe" building is that you kind of set up a house of cards. I think DC has shown what happens if you your grand universe building hits a major bump.

I'm sure it is nice having a butt load of movies to look forward to, but I do like the slightly more open method Fox is taking.

MCU and DCEU were set up very very differently.

One was gradual, the other tried to jump start a universe.

When you do stuff gradual and the establish a firm foundation, then when/if it happens that you have a misfire, it won't be as devastating and not at all like a house of cards as your foundation is solid and firm. It doesn't mean every movie was a five star movie in that foundation, but it was solid enough to make the foundation.

If you jumpstart a universe, then you have to hope you get it right immediately, or you are going to have problems.

 

[BeholdMe]

Zootopia was just amazing!

It is really a missed opportunity for Fox that after Days of Future Past, they went back to the past setting / origin or prequel routine. The movie, that in my opinion, that they should have made was the cast that were in the new future (and thats including Wolverine). That would definitely earn more at the box-office than this one and the upcoming Wolverine film. And they could have teased a possible cross-over with Deadpool or X-Force, a cameo for Gambit, then one of the older cast members tease a spin-off to New Mutants.

What your continuing to fail to see over and over again is even if the next movie after DOFP was with the OT as we know you want so bad it still would be the same results with a crappy recycled storyline period. If they had done things different with this movie it could've easily done so much better though I feel some people hate the movie simply to hate it. They wouldn't cameo Gambit since it was stated he wants his first appearance to be in his solo film but you just refuse to see this. The movie being set it in the past has nothing to do with its box office especially since the XMen everyone wants to see are in these movies they just aren't handled to their best ability is all. You really need to let it go bad mouthing the film simply because you and Alison are tight because your beloved cast isn't in it, get over it.