85th Annual Academy Awards (2013) - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My Predictions:

Best Picture: Argo (I love SLP but Harvey doesn't deserve 3 in a row so I can't root on it to upset. Argo is a lock to win so it doesn't matter who I root for).

Best Direction: Steven Spielberg (I'd perfer Russell to win and would be happy with the director's of smaller films like Beasts or Amour to upset but it's gonna be da berg who pulls it out I think. If not him than Lee)
Best Actress: Riva (She's 85, just give it to her) I'll be rooting for Lawrence but I will be fine with whomever they pick to be honest.

Best Actor: DDL (I'd give it to Pheonix but I don't run the Oscars. You can't hate on DDL though, he's a master of acting).
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (I'm a huge Les Miz movie hater but Anne killed it, she killed it so much that I have her version of I Dreamed a Dream on my phone. I loved Adams performance as well and if she had a shot I'd be estatic if she won but she doesn't. Anne has this locked down and I'm a fan so that's good news for me.
Best Supporting Actor: DeNiro (Jones and Waltz have a better chance on paper but I don't think that Playbook is going home empty handed after garnering a historic 4 acting noms. It's possible of course but I don't see it happening. Maybe I'll be wrong? It's DeNiro or Lawrence IMHO and I'm picking DeNiro but hoping that both win)

Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo

Best Animated Film: Brave (Wreck-it-Ralph or ParaNorman deserve it more but a lot of old people vote for the Oscars and the industry loves Pixar. Brave is a decent movie but I hope it loses because the two afore-mentioned films are much better. Prove me wrong Oscars).

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

I don't have the urge to make anyother predictions so this is the end of the line for me.

 

[Liam_H]

I believe you have your screenplays mixed up.

 

[childeroland]

They've got a screen cap from the wrong Oliver Twist film up there. That's not from "Oliver!", it's from the David Lean version.

Maybe they were embarrassed.

 

[Homer J. Fong]

I wasn't that surprised by Ben Affleck's snub in the Best Director category. Argo didn't seem like a Best Picture frontrunner at that point, Affleck didn't seem like a Best Director frontrunner at that point. When it came out, it did, then that buzz died down, but after the nominations came in, Affleck was regarded as the major snub (I thought Kathryn Bigelow was the major snub, but I was wrong), and he's won every major prize since, as has Argo. So here we are in the very strange and rare situation where the director of the frontrunner for Best Picture can't win themselves. The last time a film won Best Picture without its director even being nominated was Driving Miss Daisy - 23 years ago - directed by Bruce Beresford. That alone makes this a far more interesting year than usual, but there are a number of other categories that are difficult to predict.

BEST PICTURE

I thought Zero Dark Thirty would be more of a contender. I thought it'd come down to that vs. Lincoln. Then came the controversies surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, and buzz/hype around Silver Linings Playbook grew. I then thought it'd be that vs. Lincoln. And then Argo became the film to beat. At this point, Argo could possibly be beaten by either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook...but it won't be. Silver Linings Playbook's big advantage here is that it has an actor nominated in every acting category, and the actors' branch is the largest in the Academy. Even so...

WILL WIN: Argo - George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Ben Affleck



BEST DIRECTOR

Well, it won't be Affleck, because it can't be Affleck. Steven Spielberg is the most likely then, and as that film won't win Picture, this would be a sort of consolation prize for it. David O. Russell could win, but I think Lincoln is regarded as more of a directorial achievement than Silver Linings Playbook

WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln



BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis is the only one that matters. Having other nominees in this category is merely a formality.

WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln



BEST ACTRESS

It's Jessica Chastain (for Zero Dark Thirty) vs. Jennifer Lawrence for (Silver Linings Playbook). Chastain is the older and more experienced actress, but they both have one Oscar nomination in their past (Chastain last year for Best Supporting Actress for The Help, Lawrence two years ago for Best Actress for Winter's Bone), so previous experience is hard to take into account here. They both won Golden Globes for their respective films, because the Globes separate drama and comedy, so that's no help, plus the Golden Globes aren't the major predictor that some people think. Chastain has won a bunch of critics' prizes, but those are critics' prizes. Lawrence won the SAG award. Chastain would seem to have the showier role, one that almost demands an Oscar, but Lawrence's is supposedly the more emotional. It really is a tough call to make. Chastain is definitely deserving. I haven't seen Silver Linings; I'm not sure if that makes this easier or harder to call. There's talk that Emmanuelle Riva could pull off an upset for Amour, but I don't think so (and it's not an upset if you predict it). I think I have to go Lawrence.

WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is another difficult race. Everyone nominated has won an Oscar before - but neither Alan Arkin (nominated for Argo) nor Philip Seymour Hoffman (nominated for The Master will be adding a new one to their mantel. I could totally see Robert De Niro (for Silver Linings Playbook), Tommy Lee Jones (for Lincoln), or Christoph Waltz (for Django Unchained) walking away with this one. Waltz is less likely than the others, not least because he won in this category, for a Tarantino movie, just three years ago. The SAG award went to Jones. De Niro hasn't won any of the major awards, but this is such an acclaimed performance, and this is his first Oscar nomination since his Best Actor nod for Cape Fear in 1992. I've heard it's a performance of subtlety and nuance, whereas Jones has some of that but, more importantly, plenty of speechifying and scene-stealing.

WILL WIN: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, a.k.a. the aspect everyone actually likes about Les Misérables. This is almost as surefire as Day-Lewis.

WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I figure it's between Amour, Django Unchained, and Zero Dark Thirty. To say that Django's violence and frequent use of "the N word" may hold it back feels silly, but it may. Zero Dark Thirty has some unfortunate and ridiculous controversies attached to it, and the Academy did recognize the script for a taut, extensively researched war film from Mark Boal just three years ago, The Hurt Locker. There's no controversy or backlash around Amour, but would a film in another language win for its screenplay? There's such love for it now, I wouldn't be that surprised...but I don't know. Zero Dark Thirty did win the WGA award, and the knocks against it have been leveled against Kathryn Bigelow more than anyone. Django won the Golden Globe, but so what? Actually, this one's harder than Supporting Actor. I'm going Zero Dark Thirty.

WILL WIN: Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo, Lincoln, or Silver Linings Playbook....Damn it, the screenplay categories are hard to nail down this year. That's fun, but it means that I probably shouldn't place any bets. Looking at the other awards doesn't make it easier; Silver Linings Playbook won the BAFTA, Lincoln won the Critics' Choice award, Argo won the WGA award. Actually, that should make it easier. It seems to me like Lincoln is a wiser, safer bet than Argo, but shouldn't I go with the film that won the award from the Writers Guild? Maybe I should, but I'm not.

WILL WIN: Lincoln - Tony Kushner



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This category has been really, really hard for me - not because it's hard to predict, but because I would love to see Frankenweenie win SO MUCH that I've had to bring myself down to the reality that it has so little chance. I try not to get my hopes up, but man, would it feel great if Frankenweenie won, because that's a really special film. I love Wreck-It Ralph too, though, and I like Brave. I thought maybe Wreck-It Ralph might alienate the plethora of ancients in the Academy, who might get lost in the references to video games they've never played or heard of, but now...Well, I won't be too bothered when it wins.

WILL WIN: Wreck-It Ralph - Rich Moore



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: Searching for Sugar Man



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I'm going out on a limb and going with the film that was also nominated for Best Picture (and Best Director...and Best Original Screenplay...and Best Actress).

WILL WIN: Amour



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

It would have been cool to see it up for Best Picture, or to see Javier Bardem up for Best Supporting Actor, but hey, Skyfall is up for cinematography, and that's cool. And it's arguably the frontrunner. It's either Skyfall or Life of Pi. This is one of those times when I have to bet against something I love, though; Roger Deakins' cinematography on Skyfall was awesome, and if he does win, I'll love it (the first Oscar win for a Bond movie and a long-overdue win for Deakins? It'd be great!). Life of Pi really looks like a Best Cinematography winner to me, even though Skyfall did win the American Society of Cinematographers award, however.

WILL WIN: Life of Pi


BEST FILM EDITING

WILL WIN: Argo



BEST ART DIRECTION

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

That makeup team on Les Mis sure did make those movie stars look ugly and poor.

Look, this category lost any credibility to me last year when The Iron Lady beat out Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows: Part 2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey should win, but it will not.

WILL WIN: Les Misérables



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

John Williams has a good shot for Lincoln, but I'm predicting Mychael Danna for Life of Pi.

WILL WIN: Life of Pi



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Everyone's saying that "Skyfall" is basically a lock, but I don't know, I wouldn't be shocked if "Suddenly" from Les Mis pulled an "upset." That said...

WILL WIN: "Skyfall" from Skyfall



BEST SOUND MIXING

That musical where the cast sang live on the set and that's what's in the movie.

WILL WIN: Les Misérables



BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN: Skyfall



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: Life of Pi



And now for the random shots in the dark...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

WILL WIN: "Asad"



BEST ANIMATED SHORT

I've actually seen two of these! I saw "Paperman" before Wreck-It Ralph, and I saw "The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare" after the most recent episode of...well, The Simpsons. My prediction is not my prediction because I've seen it, though.

WILL WIN: "Paperman"



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

WILL WIN: "Open Heart"

 

[kvz5]

My BP rankings:

Life of Pi
Argo
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables

Haven't seen: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild

 

[Liam_H]

BEST ACTRESS

It's Jessica Chastain (for Zero Dark Thirty) vs. Jennifer Lawrence for (Silver Linings Playbook). Chastain is the older and more experienced actress, but they both have one Oscar nomination in their past (Chastain last year for Best Supporting Actress for The Help, Lawrence two years ago for Best Actress for Winter's Bone), so previous experience is hard to take into account here. They both won Golden Globes for their respective films, because the Globes separate drama and comedy, so that's no help, plus the Golden Globes aren't the major predictor that some people think. Chastain has won a bunch of critics' prizes, but those are critics' prizes. Lawrence won the SAG award. Chastain would seem to have the showier role, one that almost demands an Oscar, but Lawrence's is supposedly the more emotional. It really is a tough call to make. It seems like there isn't all that much love within the industry for Zero Dark Thirty, not anymore anyway. but it might have its strongest chance here. Chastain is definitely deserving. This is the best chance Silver Linings has too, though, and there's more love for that film - or at least less controversy surrounding it. I haven't seen Silver Linings; I'm not sure if that makes this easier or harder to call. There's talk that Emmanuelle Riva could pull off an upset for Amour, but I don't think so (and it's not an upset if you predict it). Damn it, I'm going Chastain.

WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

I find it odd you say Chastain has the showier role, but then you say you haven't seen SLP so that answers that. I'm pretty sure she is third to Riva and Lawrence. If Lawrence had taken the BAFTA then she would be the clear favorite. I would love for Chastain to win it but she has lost so much support over the past couple of months in favor of the other two.

 

[Homer J. Fong]

I find it odd you say Chastain has the showier role, but then you say you haven't seen SLP so that answers that. I'm pretty sure she is third to Riva and Lawrence. If Lawrence had taken the BAFTA then she would be the clear favorite. I would love for Chastain to win it but she has lost so much support over the past couple of months in favor of the other two.

Well, I said Chastain "would seem to have the showier role," and I said "would seem to" beause I haven't seen Silver Linings. You could say I'm splitting hairs there, but I don't know, would you say that Lawrence actually has the showier role - or performance?

I didn't really consider Riva winning until she won the BAFTA. I don't know how much overlap there is in BAFTA members to Academy voters, though, and therefore how much difference that makes.

 

[Liam_H]

Yes. One of the big criticisms of ZDT is that people didn't get any character out of Maya(Chastain). She was too cold and reserve. Lawrence you could say plays the manic pixie dream girl.

Around the past 12 years the winner of the BAFTA for Best Actress has gone on to win the Oscar 8 times. On the SAG side which Lawrence had won the same percentage at 8 out of 12.

 

[johnrain]

Why should Daniel Day Lewis get another Best Actor award? Give it to Hugh Jackman.

 

[Liam_H]

Because he deserves it?

 

[Homer J. Fong]

I get that "more for Daniel Day-Lewis? He's won enough!" kind of mindset, but the award isn't supposed to be for the actor and their career, it's supposed to be for the performance, in that film, in that year. Day-Lewis as Lincoln was certainly the best performance by an actor in a leading role I saw last year. He totally deserves it.

 

[flickchick85]

I get that "more for Daniel Day-Lewis? He's won enough!" kind of mindset, but the award isn't supposed to be for the actor and their career, it's supposed to be for the performance, in that film, in that year. Day-Lewis as Lincoln was certainly the best performance by an actor in a leading role I saw last year. He totally deserves it.

I believe Joaquin Phoenix delivered the best performance by an actor in a leading role last year, but I agree that Day-Lewis deserves it over Jackman.

 

[Homer J. Fong]

I haven't seen The Master yet. That whole Phoenix vs. Day-Lewis thing has been the focus of a lot of conversation on the Filmspotting podcast, and in general I'm sure. It's an interesting discussion as to who had the more challenging role and who was more effective in it, but there's obviously no resolution to it, because of that damn subjectivity thing.

 

[redhawk23]

Phoenix did solid work but as with the many other people who did solid work on The Master, it was in service of nothing.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Why should Daniel Day Lewis get another Best Actor award? Give it to Hugh Jackman.

Joaquin deserves it over both. Freddie Quell, the best male performance of the year.

 

[jacobed]

I disagree. While Phoenix was good, I didnt like his character at all and there's very little growth.

 

[Man in the Suit]

Just because you didn't like the character and development doesn't mean it wasn't great acting. Joaquin transformed.

 

[jacobed]

It was a great performance. Completely transformed? I wouldn't go that far. DDL now that is completely transformed and I'm not just talking physically

 

[StarLord]

Phoenix deserves it. His performance in The Master was something totally different and to me, really outstanding.

 

[terry78]

I suspect if Phoenix had been in makeup and you didn't know it was him, he'd get more love. That's what people seem to respond to in regard to acting, if the guy is unrecognizble.

 

[redhawk23]

DDL was recognizably DDL, it just so happens he has more than just a passing to Lincoln anyways. Phoenix was great, but DDL's Lincoln actually felt like a human being. I think it would have been easy for Day Lewis to go way overboard with Lincoln, chew up the scenery. I don't think people would have minded since it would have been expected. Instead he showed a lot of reserve which helped his character be human rather than a caricature or a monument, either of which it so easily could have slipped into.

 

[kvz5]

I gotta agree. Phoenix is the only one who deserves the win other than DDL. For the rest, the nomination is the reward. And also, Hawkes should've been nominated just like Shannon should've been last year.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I get that "more for Daniel Day-Lewis? He's won enough!" kind of mindset, but the award isn't supposed to be for the actor and their career, it's supposed to be for the performance, in that film, in that year. Day-Lewis as Lincoln was certainly the best performance by an actor in a leading role I saw last year. He totally deserves it.

Wait, what? When did that change happen?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Wait, what? When did that change happen?

Exactly, the Academy gives make up Oscars all the time. I haven't seen DDL performance in order to judge it to be honest but I'd still like Phoenix to win because I think it was a once in a lifetime performance.

I'm thinking about changing my predictions.

 

[Warhammer]

Wait, what? When did that change happen?

I agree. The Academy always giving the award to the best within the category is a crock of s***.