BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[Stark Bauer]

It seems to be $52. But, expect the actual number to be lower tomorrow.

Still in Origins levels of drops, though.

By Odin's Beard! That's a 99% drop!!!

I know you meant $52 million lol. Just having fun with ya

 

[Poni_Boy]

I'm not sure where some people are getting this? but a billion is far from a guarantee at this point and I'd say it's a long-shot.

Seriously. This movie is below $680 mil WW. It would have to do minimum $50 mil per week for the next six weeks before hitting $980 mil. Ain't gonna happen.

 

[Filmfan93]

There were a lot of things not true with what he said.

For example? BvS is already at $680 million. I think by the end of next week it will reach $800 million. And what other things were I wrong about? Please, feel free to explain.

 

[bholliday]

For example? BvS is already at $680 million. I think by the end of next week it will reach $800 million. And what other things were I wrong about? Please, feel free to explain.

Based on what statistics and presedence?!

 

[Stark Bauer]

Warning: Extrapolating that far out decreases accuracy greatly. But here goes...

Week 2: $65.3 million (-64%), cume $274.4 million
Week 3: $31.9 million (-51.1%), cume $306.4 million
Week 4: $15.6 million (-51.1%), cume $322 million
Week 5: $6.3 million (-59.7%), cume $328.3 million
Week 6: $2.79 million (-55.8%), cume $331.1 million
Week 7: $1.03 million (-63.2%), cume $332.1 million
Week 8 (thru Tue): $242 thousand (-74.4% from prev thru-Tue), cume $332.3 million

The model as it stands now "breaks down" after day 54, going into impossible outcomes (negative grosses, etc.). That will change as time goes on, but right now, it's predicting a total domestic gross of $332.3 million.

Interesting analysis. I could see it going that way too but that is a worst case scenario I'll

 

[Docker2.0]

Avengers was the worse thin to happen to CBM because now everything has to be comedy and all light

see i can do that too

But Avengers made $1B+ so that makes no sense.

 

[Poni_Boy]

For example? BvS is already at $680 million. I think by the end of next week it will reach $800 million. And what other things were I wrong about? Please, feel free to explain.

Maybe you should explain where that $120 mil will come from in ONE week. Do you know what diminishing returns are? Use hard data please. Start here: http://deadline.com/2016/04/batman-v-superman-box-office-second-weekend-gods-not-dead-2-1201729796/

"Posting one of the steepest second weekend drops for a superhero movie ever at -68%, Warner Bros.’ Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice clearly didn’t entice fans back for a second look, pulling in just $52.4M over three days."

 

[Logan0327]

But Avengers made $1B+ so that makes no sense.

and TDK did'nt

 

[Filmfan93]

When discussing box office analysis with people who use facts and statistics to support their opinions? Yes

Predictions can never be 100% right, even when using facts.

 

[bholliday]

Based on my thoughts. Should everything be about statistics and facts? Just shared my predictions. This doesn't mean I will be right. But it doesn't mean things I say are wrong either.

Ha this is great!

"When talking about statistics and facts why bother referencing stastics and facts.

On my world, box office stands for Hope."

 

[Poni_Boy]

Predictions can never be 100% right, even when using facts.

Of course not. But what you said was the equivalent of saying "this movie will make 100 bajillion dollars because I say so." Use facts (we have them). Use statistics (we have those too). You're not making a hypothesis you're just making a wild, random guess and you expect it to hold water.

 

[bholliday]

Let's keep on topic people!

 

[Poni_Boy]

Sooooo box office. Question: for those of you on the fence about seeing it again (or for the first time) what would entice you about going to see it next weekend?

[and no don't say 'a better movie']

 

[Sithborg]

Never mind. I still stay by my opinion that the movie will hit $1 billion. Based on no statistics or facts. Just my opinion. No need to get crazy about it. It won't be the end of the world if I turn out wrong All of us are entitled to our opinions, may they be wrong.

Just be well prepared to be wrong. This is facing Wolverine Origins level drops. How that translates to making a billion, when all the major markets are pretty much tapping out (or like, China, done).

And I don’t know much about SS - that trailer made it look like Deadpool crossed with an R-rated GOTG. My dad thought the same thing.

I would not be surprised if they were looking at an R rating after Deadpool's weekend. It's a pity, since I think that movie would be perfect for an R rating.

 

[-Arya-]

Sooooo box office. Question: for those of you on the fence about seeing it again (or for the first time) what would entice you about going to see it next weekend?

[and no don't say 'a better movie']

Having a limited release of the Director's Cut to at least iron out the editing issues.

 

[JOE]

Sooooo box office. Question: for those of you on the fence about seeing it again (or for the first time) what would entice you about going to see it next weekend?

[and no don't say 'a better movie']

I think if I went and got hammered with some friends I could watch it during the day. It would be a lot more fun than actually taking the movie seriously.

 

[WilliamK99]

So we know WB is going to put a positive spin on the numbers, and will not publicly fire anyone, but I imagine some behind the scenes moves are already in the works... If Iron Man opened up to this level of critic thrashing and lack of WOM, I doubt we would have seen the Avengers so soon after....

 

[LamboMan]

Box Office: ‘Batman v Superman’ Passes ‘Man of Steel’ With $682.9 Million Globally

WOOOO!!

And the weekend is technically over only in half the world as of now!

 

[johnboy3434]

Box Office: ‘Batman v Superman’ Passes ‘Man of Steel’ With $682.9 Million Globally

WOOOO!!

And the weekend is technically over only in half the world as of now!

In other words, we're probably looking at $850 million worldwide when all's said and done. Even under the best of circumstances, that's barely breaking even.

 

[Sithborg]

Box Office: ‘Batman v Superman’ Passes ‘Man of Steel’ With $682.9 Million Globally

WOOOO!!

And the weekend is technically over only in half the world as of now!

1. They are using the weekend estimates.
2. It was supposed to "smash 700" this weekend.

 

[wobbly]

Box Office: ‘Batman v Superman’ Passes ‘Man of Steel’ With $682.9 Million Globally

WOOOO!!

And the weekend is technically over only in half the world as of now!

I suspect the writer didn't quite grasp the intent of the 'crying all the way to the bank' comment.

 

[Aejej]

In other words, we're probably looking at $850 million worldwide when all's said and done. Even under the best of circumstances, that's barely breaking even.

Does that mean DoFP ended up in the red with less than 750M? It had the same budget.

 

[johnboy3434]

Does that mean DoFP ended up in the red with less than 750M? It had the same budget.

Actually, BvS has a higher budget. But you're right: $200 million production budget, add $100 million for marketing, 55% of $234 million domestic, 1/3 of $514 million foreign... Yeah, it probably made exactly as much as it cost. The profit would have come from home media sales, which is where it's likely going to have to come from for BvS.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Does that mean DoFP ended up in the red with less than 750M? It had the same budget.

Yep

"After estimating marketing and advertising spend, Days of Future Past will have cost Fox nearly $365M to produce and distribute – representing a nearly $25M increase over 2006’s X-Men III: The Last Stand and 40-90% more than each of the last three X-Men films. After appropriating for participation and back-end fees from actors, writers and investors1, Fox will have spent roughly $450M on the film. With theater operators retaining approximately 45% of box office receipts domestically and 60% internationally, Days of Future Past would need to gross between $775 and $980M (depending on participation) just to break even. "

http://iveybusinessreview.ca/blogs/.../14/days-future-past-will-disappointment-fox/

 

[wobbly]

Does that mean DoFP ended up in the red with less than 750M? It had the same budget.

Not as much as you may think :

http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/

Needed after sales to get that profit.