BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[wobbly]

Nah, no way WB lets this go under $50 mill. if actuals are at least 49, they'll find a way to get it to 50

Can they do that?

I know studios can be a little creative with estimates but I've not heard of them fiddling the actuals (wouldn't that be be fraud?).

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

So I saw it and I can see why the BO is dropping like a stone this weekend. Not a good way to start off your cinematic universe for sure. I'll be shocked if this thing makes it to $900m WW now.

 

[johnboy3434]

Discounting the Thursday shows is kinda cheating though? That was still money in the bank for WB after all, contributing to the $166mil record weekend. I don't think making it vanish to soften the drop is a good means to gauge it at all (imo). I figure that money spent Thursday would have been spread over the weekend regardless. My 2 cents on that one at any rate.

Actually, including Thursday is cheating. WB can call it whatever they want, but the fact of the matter is that if we're counting a weekend as Friday through Sunday, then every single weekend needs to be counted as Friday through Sunday, or the analysis is going to be inconsistent. Dropping the Thursday pre-shows makes it an apples-to-apples comparison.

The Thursday take will always be part of the overall gross, but counting it as part of the opening weekend is bad statistics.

 

[parkerpete]

Does that mean DoFP ended up in the red with less than 750M? It had the same budget.

Difference being, DoFP had great word of mouth, which translates to great home viewing sales and bumps up the opening week of the next film in the franchise.

Whereas BvS has the kind of WOM that leads most people to watch it on Netflix, drunk, two years from now. If at all.

 

[wobbly]

Actually, including Thursday is cheating. WB can call it whatever they want, but the fact of the matter is that if we're counting a weekend as Friday through Sunday, then every single weekend needs to be counted as Friday through Sunday, or the analysis is going to be inconsistent. Dropping the Thursday pre-shows makes it an apples-to-apples comparison.

The Thursday take will always be part of the overall gross, but counting it as part of the opening weekend is bad statistics.

Fair enough. From a statistical pov I see the point.

I do still think that money would have come that weekend anyway though, but obviously there's no way to prove that.

 

[HELLilac]

That's a really good point. If Batman and Superman sharing the screen for the first time (coupled with the cinematic debut of Wonder Woman) is going to struggle to hit $1 billion in today's day and age, it doesn't exactly instill confidence that the audience is hungry for two Justice League films, let alone Aquaman or Cyborg movies.

WB is really going to need Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman to start changing the conversation surrounding DC. Their brand has taken a big hit with this film, no way around it.

The final product didn't deliver what the marketing promised and that's what pissed people off and led to them spreading bad WOM. People excited to see two icons sharing the screen for the first time and the movie gave them 4 scenes together and probably 30 mins in total in a 2 and a half hour movie. The interest and potential were there and had they delivered what people expected or hoped for the movie wouldn't have had trouble hitting a billion mark. It's WB fault for not selling their product to it's potential.

If SS and WW are well-liked and then JL delivers people may give DCCU a chance. It might not have the same hype as BvS but the leg is going to be better.

 

[TheVileOne]

My prediction for final domestic is under $350 million.

I will say about $850 worldwide.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

$850M sounds about right.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think about 360 (ish) dom, 850/860 ww. With ALOT of luck, maaaybe 875 mill.

 

[Charlie The Red]

$850 worldwide seems fair.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Initially my ww gross was 900 million. Now the bar has been lowered to $850M.

I wouldn't be shocked if we keep lowering it as low as $800M. Crazy. If you asked me if I thought this would happen. Never lol

 

[hafizbat]

This feels like reverse-Jurassic World. Instead of being astonished at how high it's going, we are now astonished at how badly this movie is sinking.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Out with friends right now. This is an example of WOM in action and how it affects the BO. BvS came up in conversation. Consensus was that the hardcore DC fans didn't like it. 4 women and 3 men. WW was generally well liked. Batman divisive. No mentions of Superman.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Nah, no way WB lets this go under $50 mill. if actuals are at least 49, they'll find a way to get it to 50

Possibly, but does it really matter? It is disastrous either way.

 

[paulogonza]

well i think here in brazil people think different and saw this movie with other perspective, becaue i saw two times this weekend and both of then was sold out very hard for a second weekend here.

 

[Flint Marko]

Out with friends right now. This is an example of WOM in action and how it affects the BO. BvS came up in conversation. Consensus was that the hardcore DC fans didn't like it. 4 women and 3 men. WW was generally well liked. Batman divisive. No mentions of Superman.

I was out with some people a few days back and a friend of mine who doesn't ever see superhero movies and knows I'm a huge fan said, "heard your movie sucks". That sparked a conversation with some people I had just been introduced to who had also seen the movie, and we had about a 5 minute conversation about why the movie was so terrible.
WOM is not good. This is one of the times where I have had enough face-to-face conversations with enough people to accurately say this has gone over like a lead balloon.

 

[paulogonza]

and here the movis down 50% what is very normal.

 

[Mysteryman]

and here the movis down 50% what is very normal.

Closer to 70%..

 

[Tymminator]

I will just pull wild final numbers out of my butt...

308M Domestic
838M World Wide

 

[paulogonza]

Closer to 70%..

not here

first weekend was 12.4 and now 6.1

 

[db85usa]

Still think when the actuals come tomorrow we will have a 69% drop so $51.5M for the 2nd weekend is what I expect to hear. I have been stating this since last week that the film would have massive drops and slow down quite a bit as far as ticket sales are concerned. No way this gets to $900M worlwide. The buck stops at $880M worldwide with $330M being domestic. Its legs have already been taken out by bad critic reviews and mixed audience reviews.

Its sad that this is the best WB has to offer in terms of superheroes when they and everyone knows they could do so much better. Lots of decisions to be made. Still think Zack Snyder won't be wearing the directors hat for long due to this box office disappointment.

 

[Sithborg]

well i think here in brazil people think different and saw this movie with other perspective, becaue i saw two times this weekend and both of then was sold out very hard for a second weekend here.

South America and Mexico is where it is doing respectably. It is bombing pretty much every where else.

Yeah, make no doubt, WB is trying to avoid headlines comparing it to Origins.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The issue is this movie really needed to do amazing as it was the launchpad for the entire DCEU.

Barely making a profit can't cut it when there are multiple films that are supposed to ride on the success of this one.

How much more hyped are people going to get for JL based on the reaction to this one?

This film had Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman how much money are the Flash and Aquaman really going to bring in?

 

[brandeezy89]

The issue is this movie really needed to do amazing as it was the launchpad for the entire DCEU.

Barely making a profit can't cut it when there are multiple films that are supposed to ride on the success of this one.

How much more hyped are people going to get for JL based on the reaction to this one?

This film had Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman how much money are the Flash and Aquaman really going to bring in?

Doesn't matter, all depends on the quality of the movie.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Doesn't matter, all depends on the quality of the movie.

Well it's being directed by Zack Snyder so I don't expect a huge jump in quality.

Maybe a 45% on RT this time?