BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[B]

You're assuming that the studio gets everything from ticket sales. They get around half. So if it cost $400 million, it would have to sell $800 million worth of tickets to break even.

Good point, I was actually thinking about this after I wrote that.

 

[Boom]

Yeah I hate when movie studios over do the budgets especially when you look at the finished work and are lik "where did all the money go?" I have the same issue with a 250 mill Gambit film but i won't go into that because I could talk pages if how much of a wrong move that us...

It's disturbing how often I ask this question about contemporary blockbusters.

 

[Marvin]

So, regarding profitability: If the production budget was $250 million, then let's add 50% for P&A. That's a $375 million negative cost. Let's say it makes 40% of its money in the domestic market. Saying that it keeps 55% of domestic ticket sales and one-third of foreign ticket sales, that means the film would have to make about $950 million to break even. Does that sound fair, or am I way off base?

Gone are the days where a movie had to make back twice it's production budget(to account for marketing) in order to break even. Thinking back now, I can only imagine how many movies scratched the surface really.

 

[jokesonm3]

And Suicide Squad also had a $200 million production budget, did it not?

WB might want to consider reeling in these budgets a bit. They're really putting themselves in a position where these films HAVE to crack a billion to turn a comfortable profit.

Jeez $200M for Suicide Squad?!

If thats in anyway true then Tsujihara needs to get fired ASAP! Under his rule Warner's basically throwing money away now.

 

[-Arya-]

Yeah WB is far too liberal with their money. They need to learn how to cut back a little.

 

[bapi]

Jeez $200M for Suicide Squad?!

If thats in anyway true then Tsujihara needs to get fired ASAP! Under his rule Warner's basically throwing money away now.

Read about 250m... LOL. Just look at projects like Tarzan - 170m production budgets but after so many months of post-production and changes it must be over 200m.

 

[SpitCurl]

I'd agree that I'm sure they won't look at $800m & say we're thrilled with it's performance, but at the same time I don't think they'll look at $800m & say we're disappointed either. Trilled you're probably talking $900m+, disappointed you're probably talking $700m or less... or basically the same as what MoS made whatever that was, $600m was it?

Factoring in all the likely back-end deals with cast and crew that will eat into whatever slight profit this film makes, in addition to the horrendous critical reception, mediocre (if we're being nice) GA reception, poor WOM, less than stellar OS numbers (remember: this thing opened everywhere all at once, there's not going to be a sudden influx of revenue from untapped markets) and the fact that it's likely falling over 65% in its second weekend with no competition, there is no feasible way that WB isn't disappointed. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. None.

This isn't just the "second film in the new DCEU" as people keep trying to spin it, this is literally the first live-action, big-screen pairing of two of the most well-known characters in pop culture (plus Wonder Woman), coming at a time when technology has finally allowed us to realize the potential of that meeting in all its glory. The mental gymnastics it would take to spin this into a success would turn your grey matter into a pretzel shape.

 

[Boom]

Read about 250m... LOL. Just look at projects like Tarzan - 170m production budgets but after so many months of post-production and changes it must be over 200m.

I forgot about Tarzan's budget.

****ing insanity.

 

[jaymes_e06]

I don't know... they're ultra protective of the Batman franchise. And really, hollywood execs. It's not like they really give a **** about these characters. If Batman made $1bi by himself and less than $1bi with Superman, they're probably gonna say it's Superman's fault. It's never gonna come down to "it didn't work because we executed it poorly".

That's doesn't make much sense though as there have been Batman films that have underperformed they only seem to show the success like BB and BR (as much as I love that film) were these runaway hits. Not every film with him in it is guaranteed to hit 1b.

Same goes for Spider-Man (see ASM2) if the quality isn't present no one will come see the film. Conversely if quality is there people will turn up in droves (subjective quality per that particular audience).

 

[wobbly]

So how are these estimates according to expectations?

Pre release, terrible.

Post release (after the critics cut loose) still bad.

A high drop with zero competition worthy of the name is not good.

 

[jokesonm3]

With all that unnecessary money basically being thrown away in high budgets and BvS bombing hard, how is Warner Bros not bankrupt yet?

 

[DCmania]

The mental gymnastics it would take to spin this into a success would turn your grey matter into a pretzel shape.

Hahaha there are mental gymnasts aplenty on this forum and at WB I'm sure.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Guys the mods have told us to not go off topic enough times.

 

[samsnee]

So next weekend? I say $25M domestic. At this point it's just people who have already seen it and like it and those who want to see how bad it is.

 

[Tony Stark]

I have a feeling when the actuals come in this will be closer to 50M and 70%. I think they way over-predicted Saturday.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I have a feeling when the actuals come in this will be closer to 50M and 70%. I think they way over-predicted Saturday.

Agreed.

 

[WilliamK99]

I have a feeling when the actuals come in this will be closer to 50M and 70%. I think they way over-predicted Saturday.

Of course they did, WB has been manipulating the numbers since the start...Remember last weekend? They wanted a record so they ensured numbers were put that that made that record only for actuals toshow record was not broken.. Same here, a 70% drop reported by media 'would be devastating to WB publicity wise, so they ensured "estimates" were more palatable...

 

[JB33]

What a moumental drop. Brutal.

 

[kalhawj]

With all that unnecessary money basically being thrown away in high budgets and BvS bombing hard, how is Warner Bros not bankrupt yet?

Calling it bombed is a little much. A bombed is F4, john Carter, Lone Ranger, etc. It under perform to expectation especially when the movie has Batman, Superman, and WW In it. It still made a lot of money in 10 days and will continue to until its theatrical run is over.

 

[Mysteryman]

With all that unnecessary money basically being thrown away in high budgets and BvS bombing hard, how is Warner Bros not bankrupt yet?

because they make a lot of different types of movies

 

[WilliamK99]

It is when the film has opened everywhere all at once. I feel like this point isn't being represented well-enough. There are no more markets left to give this film a boost in revenue. None. China is plummeting and pretty much moot after this week. Australia posted a 60%+ fall, as did the UK, as will the US.

People need to understand the concept of "diminishing returns". Where, exactly, do you think it's going to make another $400 million?

They are using performance of past movies, not understanding that every other movie in the world has had a staggered overseas release, meaning money kept flowing in. This is one of the first movies to release in all territories in one day, thus WW gross won't fall the same percentage as other films, it will drop a lot harder...

 

[writer0327]

People need to understand the concept of "diminishing returns". Where, exactly, do you think it's going to make another $400 million?

$400M? I'd be shocked if it hit another $200M.

After two weekends, 90-95% of the people that wanted to see it or thought about seeing it have seen it. The final numbers will come from the final 5-10%, people who are repeat viewings, and those who are mildly curious. Not enough to hit another $400M.

 

[kalhawj]

It is when your total budget is $375 million. I don't think you're appreciating how quickly a movie's gross drops after the first two weeks. The movie has made at least 70% of what it's going to make, and probably closer to 80%. Meanwhile, depending on how the domestic/foreign ends up being, the break-even point could be as high as $951 million.

Production budget is 250+150mil marketing. Marketing is offset with promotion and sponsors. It's what studio do to offset the marketing cost. I don't get where people are getting this high number as the actual number. Unless WB put it out is all rumar and number people try to put up to argue and doom and gloom the movie. We know the movie didn't live up to expectations but there are a large number of audience that love it.

 

[Knight-Tale]

$682,857,793 in ten days is not a failure. The movie still has another seven weeks in theaters.

Indeed already surpassed MOS and all of the marvel phase 1 movies baring avengers.
WB has a mild hit
I'd be surprised if it doesn't surpass 800m by next week
Then the path to 900m-1B begins
Foreign box office is carrying the film and its doing surprisingly well in some markets

Fandango said its getting 33% more repeat viewings than comparable films so that will be very important in weeks 6-8

 

[WilliamK99]

Indeed already surpassed MOS and all of the marvel phase 1 movies baring avengers.
WB has a mild hit
I'd be surprised if it doesn't surpass 800m by next week
Then the path to 900m-1B begins
Foreign box office is carrying the film and its doing surprisingly well in some markets

Surprisingly well? This is not a mild hit, not even close...Compared to the budget this is horrible. WB put all their eggs in one basket, do you really think this movie will make people want to see Cyborg? Aquaman? etc... People wanted to see Antman because he was in the MCU, not because they thought he was a cool hero...