BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

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I'm not used to a big film's overseas numbers slowing down so quickly. I guess the fact it wasn't staggered at all meant it doesn't get supported by newly opening markets in later weeks as a lot of films do.

Yeah, that to me was the biggest surprise of all. I never dreamed that this film would collapse so quickly overseas. Even if it underperformed a little domestically, I thought the international market would save it.
 
Yeah, the big early shiny number doesn't look great now that it has slowed down so quickly. Though considering the reception, staggering probably wouldn't have been good for the film overall.
Yeah, in hindsight it looks like they got everything right in terms of going big (& spoiling) in the marketing and trailers, embargoing late and launching everywhere at once. Would only have been worse without doing those things.
 
Yeah, in hindsight it looks like they got everything right in terms of going big (& spoiling) in the marketing and trailers, embargoing late and launching everywhere at once. Would only have been worse without doing those things.

It would have been a real stink fest at the BO.
 
Yeah, that to me was the biggest surprise of all. I never dreamed that this film would collapse so quickly overseas. Even if it underperformed a little domestically, I thought the international market would save it.
This is exactly why I thought it had a chance at a billion. Never expected the OS markets to be like, "no".
 
Yeah, that to me was the big surprise. I never dreamed that this film would collapse so quickly overseas.
The non-staggering is rare as every other big film I can remember following had at least a couple of decent markets opening later so they were never quite as fast out of the gate but much more resilient to harsh drops. Even with that I thought reviews would have less effect overseas but at the same time I guess this film is not quite as apt to overseas tastes (who prefer simpler/more straightforward action like Furious/Transformers/Jurassic).
 
It's going to be a very slow crawl from Monday on to the last days....I'm guessing not more than another few weeks.
 
It's stunning that for 99% of movies that would be a huge success, but for this one...well, it ain't, is it?

It's more about how much profit a movie makes, not how much it makes.
 
A billion is definitely off the table. 800 plus is still very likely but you just never know. The one thing that I think we can all agree about is this movie has performed unpredictably.

From what I understand the 830 bottom "happy line" is pretty accurate. My biggest concern is the long term picture. I just can't imagine a way that WB leaves Superman in the grave. My gut is still for a retooling of JL instead of a major move. As a writer, it is easy to go in and make the minor tweaks that the screen play might need to please people. For instance, lets say there were alternate takes of all the superman scenes where he smiles and quips during the rescues...easy change. Far easier on paper than on film. If, as many people have said, WB knew they were in trouble, then they have know for months. There is no telling how much work has already gone into lightening the tone of the movie. In fact WB very clearly let Terrio announce the lighter tone of JL even before all hell broke loose with BvS.
 
A billion is definitely off the table. 800 plus is still very likely but you just never know. The one thing that I think we can all agree about is this movie has performed unpredictably.

From what I understand the 830 bottom "happy line" is pretty accurate. My biggest concern is the long term picture. I just can't imagine a way that WB leaves Superman in the grave. My gut is still for a retooling of JL instead of a major move. As a writer, it is easy to go in and make the minor tweaks that the screen play might need to please people. For instance, lets say there were alternate takes of all the superman scenes where he smiles and quips during the rescues...easy change. Far easier on paper than on film. If, as many people have said, WB knew they were in trouble, then they have know for months. There is no telling how much work has already gone into lightening the tone of the movie. In fact WB very clearly let Terrio announce the lighter tone of JL even before all hell broke loose with BvS.
IT is making it to 800m. That isn't a question.

And there is no such thing as a below billion happy line. That is right up there with the Into Darkness BS about being okay with a sub 100m opening.
 
Let's also remember that ASM 2 made Sony money. That filmed turned a profit and they were still immensely disappointed.
And before someone comes in here and tries to point out the numerous differences between Sonys financial situation and WB's, my point still stands: Sony was disappointed with their biggest Spider-man film yet not breaking a billion, you bet your bottom dollar WB is even more disappointed.
 
Maybe "happy line" is the wrong choice of words but profit is always better than losing money and if WB makes money, they can be disappointed they didn't make more. But It isn't the same as losing money like John Carter and Fantiastic 4.
 
Here's my updated domestic model for the rest of the week and the projected grand total.

Tuesday: $3.38 million (+5.82%)
Wednesday: $2.45 million (-27.6%)
Thursday: $2.36 million (-3.4%)
SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $62.7 million (-65.4% sans Thursday previews)

Friday: $6.2 million (+162%)
Saturday: $9.39 million (+51.3%)
Sunday: $5.53 million (-41.1%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.1 million (-58.9%)

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $310 million (1.87x)
 
Here's my updated domestic model for the rest of the week and the projected grand total.

Tuesday: $3.38 million (+5.82%)
Wednesday: $2.45 million (-27.6%)
Thursday: $2.36 million (-3.4%)
SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $62.7 million (-65.4% sans Thursday previews)

Friday: $6.2 million (+162%)
Saturday: $9.39 million (+51.3%)
Sunday: $5.53 million (-41.1%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.1 million (-58.9%)

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $310 million (1.87x)

Thanks for doing these snapshots, dude. Really helps get a grasp of all the numbers flying around :up:
 
It needed to do a billion. Get rid of Snyder. Unfortunately I think Justice League Part II may be in jeopardy. What director is going to commit to a part one and part two? It's career suicide, no matter what the pay day. They won't give it to the WW director. Maybe Affleck would take it. Miller? I don't see it happening. That's the guy, but I think that boat has sailed.

November 2017 is simply too soon. You want to avoid Avengers. I think late 2019 and summer 2020 is your best bet. You can do a Batman solo film in between. I would do a prequel with Robin. Or SS2. Otherwise Justice League needs a full trilogy, if Snyder is getting part 1. Give another director 2/3.
 
Here's my updated domestic model for the rest of the week and the projected grand total.

Tuesday: $3.38 million (+5.82%)
Wednesday: $2.45 million (-27.6%)
Thursday: $2.36 million (-3.4%)
SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $62.7 million (-65.4% sans Thursday previews)

Friday: $6.2 million (+162%)
Saturday: $9.39 million (+51.3%)
Sunday: $5.53 million (-41.1%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.1 million (-58.9%)

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $310 million (1.87x)

I have a hard time seeing that big a jump Friday. I'm betting more like $18-20 million for the weekend.

Thanks for all your estimates, it's good stuff!
 
‘Batman v Superman’ Crossing $700 Million Worldwide Box Office Milestone

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/batman-v-superman-box-office-milestone-1201746550/

"Warner Bros. has announced that “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” is passing the $700 million mark in worldwide box office on Tuesday.

"The studio said the tentpole pulled in $14.3 million on Monday for a worldwide total of $698 million — $263.7 million domestically and another $434 million internationally."

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