BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[Agentdemon]

You're right for the most part, but you're forgetting one important thing: that $400 investment wasn't WB's money. It belongs to the shareholders. It's their money. If WB makes a profit from a movie, that profit has to justify the investment from the shareholders. Rule of thumb is a minimum of 10% return on investment. And in that context BvS ain't doing well. Here, read this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-seen-earning-less-profit-than-superman-alone

Ahh ok thanks for the clarification.

 

[samsnee]

You're right for the most part, but you're forgetting one important thing: that $400 investment wasn't WB's money. It belongs to the shareholders. It's their money. If WB makes a profit from a movie, that profit has to justify the investment from the shareholders. Rule of thumb is a minimum of 10% return on investment. And in that context BvS ain't doing well. Here, read this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-seen-earning-less-profit-than-superman-alone

First line from the article

“Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” is poised to conquer the box office for the third straight weekend.

Well this is embarrassing.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Well one crucial bit of information we miss is that a lot of income comes off TV deals and DVD sales, as well as the sponsorship deals (Turkish air etc), the general rule of thumb is that all that is roughly equal to the marketing spend on the movie, so the box office needs to cover the production costs

But we don't factor that in since DVD sales and TV deals money take a long time to come in (sometimes years), and its healthy to come clean and make a profit before all that

 

[Poni_Boy]

Well one crucial bit of information we miss is that a lot of income comes off TV deals and DVD sales, as well as the sponsorship deals (Turkish air etc), the general rule of thumb is that all that is roughly equal to the marketing spend on the movie, so the box office needs to cover the production costs

But we don't factor that in since DVD sales and TV deals money take a long time to come in (sometimes years), and its healthy to come clean and make a profit before all that

What? According to whom? Never heard that before. EGonna need some source links for that claim

 

[Poni_Boy]

Well this is embarrassing.

Greatly. There's really no way to spin this.

 

[Spiderdevil]

What? According to whom? Never heard that before. EGonna need some source links for that claim

Don't have a source but we had a huge debate about it TASM's box office boards 4 years ago, and a lot of posters agreed that the DVD sales + TV + Sponsors roughly = The marketing cost of the movie

So the box office is left to cover the production cost

All this is when the movie is in damage control mode (BvS), for a normal movie looking to make a profit, it's healthy to have all those covered in the box-office run itself

 

[Poni_Boy]

Don't have a source but we had a huge debate about it TASM's box office boards 4 years ago, and a lot of posters agreed that the DVD sales + TV + Sponsors roughly = The marketing cost of the movie

So the box office is left to cover the production cost

All this is when the movie is in damage control mode (BvS), for a normal movie looking to make a profit, it's healthy to have all those covered in the box-office run itself

Sorry that doesn't make sense. It's like pulling numbers out of the air and saying they're right because... why not? Too many variables that are different for every movie. There's no shortcut algorithm.

Read the Bloomberg report I linked a few posts up. It talks about home release and TV rights value and how it will reflect BvS profit.

 

[Man_of_Tomorrow]

They're not. For one simple reason: what are they going to market? They already had Supes and Bats and WW together. The gimmick is over. Doesn't matter how good the trailers look, it'll look like 'BvS +two other guys +not The Flash from TV'

So it's basically the opposite of now, this one was saved by the marketing, and then killed by wom. JL will need wom to save it, because marketing ain't gonna.

And we still have Zack Snyder.

 

[mightiest_mortal]

Well one crucial bit of information we miss is that a lot of income comes off TV deals and DVD sales, as well as the sponsorship deals (Turkish air etc), the general rule of thumb is that all that is roughly equal to the marketing spend on the movie, so the box office needs to cover the production costs

But we don't factor that in since DVD sales and TV deals money take a long time to come in (sometimes years), and its healthy to come clean and make a profit before all that

The $278 million expected profit in the Bloomberg article WAS including home video, merchandise and licensing.

It's also dipped significantly from their estimates too now (ie. the “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” is poised to conquer the box office for the third straight weekend" line at the start), so it's likely to not even make that much.

For a film of this magnitude and the amount of investment in it, $278 million is NOT a lot, especially if you compare it to a film like AOU that made $850million plus in net profit.

 

[C. Lee]

And

I deleted the rest of what you posted here, because not only was it juvenile, rude, and stupid.....but because it violated this rule from our FAQ -

Violations of Probations and Banning
If you are on probation, you may not post under any account for the amount of days for which you are on probation. Violation of this probation will result in the permanent banning of your ORIGINAL account (permanent loss of entire post count, avatars, etc.,) and an extension of your probation to your NEW name. Continued violation of this rule may result in IP banning. If you are permanently banned, you may not return to SuperHeroHype. Note: the administrators and moderators can tell if you hold more than one account.

......so, your old original name has been perma banned.....and this new name is now on an extended probation.

Have a swell day.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So it's basically the opposite of now, this one was saved by the marketing, and then killed by wom. JL will need wom to save it, because marketing ain't gonna.

And we still have Zack Snyder.

Yes. And a lot of media outlets are gonna scrutinize every aspect of it all the way up to its release because of the way WB and their director/actors crapped on them. And if it's not a significant improvement over BvS they'll crucify it. WB deserves it IMO, don't get me wrong, but it's gonna be ugly nomatter what.

 

[Poni_Boy]

The $278 million expected profit in the Bloomberg article WAS including home video, merchandise and licensing.

It's also dipped significantly from their estimates too now (ie. the “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” is poised to conquer the box office for the third straight weekend" line at the start), so it's likely to not even make that much.

For a film of this magnitude and the amount of investment in it, $278 million is NOT a lot, especially if you compare it to a film like AOU that made $850million plus in net profit.

Yep. Exactly. That's why I keep linking to that article. It's the most comprehensive one currently available

 

[Man_of_Tomorrow]

Another element that might set the stage for JL to overcome the BvS stigma is if the R version is better received than the theatrical cut. If it is better received you can count on it being the version shown on premium outlets like HBO that did very well with MoS.

I haven't seen the UC and for all I know it could be worse than the theatrical cut, but if it is better then there might not even be a BvS stigma for the film to overcome.

Even if the UC receives universal praise there is no way the number of people that see it will match the number that have seen this one, and most that do will be people that enjoyed this one, that's not the group of people they need to win over.

Regardless of the disappointment in the BvS box office, it will still be able to say it made more at the box office than many other cbms and for the most part the GA is not as concerned with box office or studio profits than those of us who have nothing better to do than discuss a movie we have little or no real financial stake in on an Internet forum at all hours of the night.

These numbers are not meaningless, these illustrate interest in this franchise. It doesn't look good. The multiplier thread on reddit is great at showing what these numbers mean

 

[MadVillainy]

Who was DCEU's original name?

Greatly. There's really no way to spin this.

Lol they'll spin it.
As I said before: "McCarthy is a huge box office draw. It's an honor to be beaten by her

 

[Bruce Malone]

I predicted that BvS could be the peak in terms of Box Office for the DCEU films. I always thought Batman, Superman and Wonder Womans was the Avengers for DC and not the Justice League actually.

I don't see how as things are now set-up JL making more money than BvS? and that has to worry WB.

 

[lukebrodyg]

I predicted that BvS could be the peak in terms of Box Office for the DCEU films. I always thought Batman, Superman and Wonder Womans was the Avengers for DC and not the Justice League actually.

I don't see how as things are now set-up JL making more money than BvS? and that has to worry WB.

An enthusiastic reception of Suicide Squad and WW film is likely to right the course in that regard.

The GA isn't nearly as unforgiving (or praising) as hypsters so I don't expect this to be as bad for JL as some think (hope).

 

[Orba]

An enthusiastic reception of Suicide Squad and WW film is likely to right the course in that regard.

The GA isn't nearly as unforgiving (or praising) as hypsters so I don't expect this to be as bad for JL as some think (hope).

But the problem is that it will still be Snyder making it, if people see him as being the problem then they won't see how anything will have changed for the better. Batman Begins was 8 years after Batman and Robin but it still had problems with peoples memories of the previous film.

 

[Poni_Boy]

An enthusiastic reception of Suicide Squad and WW film is likely to right the course in that regard.

The GA isn't nearly as unforgiving (or praising) as hypsters so I don't expect this to be as bad for JL as some think (hope).

The GA doesn't hate this movie. They're apathetic towards it. Which is worse. BvS screamed "meh, not worth your money." You can't make that up easily.

 

[jmc]

I honestly think too much stock is being placed on Suicide Squad, that movie will have no baring on JL reception. The only one that genuinely can at least stop the bleeding is WW.

 

[Bat of Gotham]

Are the final weekend figures in yet?

 

[Lily Adler]

I honestly think too much stock is being placed on Suicide Squad, that movie will have no baring on JL reception. The only one that genuinely can at least stop the bleeding is WW.

Exactly and it's unfair Wondy is the one who has to bear this cross, especially with Hollywood still being shaky on female driven action properties.

Melissa McCarthy did something I never thought any one of us would see. She dethroned Batman and Superman from the #1 slot in the box office.

 

[Kanon]

I honestly think too much stock is being placed on Suicide Squad, that movie will have no baring on JL reception. The only one that genuinely can at least stop the bleeding is WW.

It might help Batman, since Bats and The Joker are in it. But unless some SS member joins the JL, SS would be its own world for now.

 

[Wylie Times]

Exactly and it's unfair Wondy is the one who has to bear this cross, especially with Hollywood still being shaky on female driven action properties.

The movie has alreayd been made, so Hollywood typically being $#*@s about making female lead action properties is a non factor. They also have to promote the hell out of that movie.

There's an audience for Wonder Woman and that audience will show up and do repeat viewings as long as the film is good.

 

[Lily Adler]

The film is now being pressured to do well and to create good faith for the DC Cinematic Universe. Hollywood's track record with female CBMs aren't exactly great, so if this film doesn't meet WB's expectations or if there is a hint of malice, they'll forlorn any more female driven CBMs such as Birds of Prey.

 

[Double B]

I'm not sure SS and WW can right the box office wrongs of this. SS, despite its obvious DCEU links and presence of Batfleck is very much its own thing. And should it come to it, you know WB would happily pump out Suicide Squad sequels with only the most minor links to the DCEU concept. And, personally, I'm not quite sure WW is going to be the film to turn things around. If it succeeds it'll be on its own merits but its impact won't be as wildly felt as WB would like to hope IMO.

At the end of the day, JL should've been a triumph. Something to build upon BVS and take it to even higher heights. As it is, we've already seen the three most iconic heroes of JL together and the audience responded with a yawn. How do you entice more viewers into the cinema with the promise of other heroes that aren't anywhere near as popular and three major ones we've seen already? Even Wonder Woman won't be as fresh at that point because she'll have had her own solo.