BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[Rocketman]

It needs between $850-$925 mil to get in the black. So what do you think?

I think I'm confused by the mild hostility.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I'd easily call it a failure. Movies are made to turn a profit. The bigger the movie, the bigger the expected profit. This one hasn't and won't turn an acceptable profit solely from theatrical release. So it failed. Can WB salvage that failure with merch? Sure. But that's not guaranteed at all. Look at all the Green Lantern toys and merch. WB spent more on that than any other movie since Harry Potter.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I think I'm confused by the mild hostility.

No hostility. But you obviously came in here to stir **** up like you've been doing for weeks. If you don't like the numbers and the reality they present no one can help you stomach it.

 

[FunkMiller]

I'm still wondering how the hell the budget for this thing got so high? I mean take an example like Transformers 3 which had GIGANTIC and prolonged action sequences, infinitely more CGI, shot on location in (Chicago), expensive directors and actors and is still somehow cost about $60 mill less. Where did all that extra money go because i didnt see it on the screen

Affleck, Snyder.

 

[FunkMiller]

I'm honestly just checking, guys. Haven't been here in a while. I genuinely don't know if a movie making $827 million on a $250 million budget is considered a failure, so I was checking with you guys.

$400 million budget, including promotion. And it needs to clear 850 at least to turn a profit, if not over the 900. Anything less will,be regarded at WB as a failure.

 

[T"Challa]

Affleck, Snyder.

I doubt Snyder is any more costly than Bay, he certainly didnt have Bays box office track record, and as great as Affleck is, its not like he's pulling in RDJ money. I mean, this cost more than Star Wars. thats crazy to me

 

[kedrell]

I'm still wondering how the hell the budget for this thing got so high? I mean take an example like Transformers 3 which had GIGANTIC and prolonged action sequences, infinitely more CGI, shot on location in (Chicago), expensive directors and actors and is still somehow cost about $60 mill less. Where did all that extra money go because i didnt see it on the screen

Well I'm not sure but with the TF franchise all the previous CGI works and models & such are already made so reusing them in a new movie is bound to cut the costs. Plus the TF movies routinely mitigate costs with massive product placement(largely from GM). I'm sure they also get tax breaks from Bay dry humping the Pentagon in his movies. MoS was profitable largely because of over the top product placement. But they got a **it-ton of criticism for that so BvS doesn't seem to have all that help for it. They took the wrong lessons to heart. Yes, MoS's product placement was too much and annoying as hell but simply removing it would not have made the movie significantly any better. And it actually DID help make MoS something of a success in certain respects. At this moment WB is wishing BvS had that kind of help.

 

[Lily Adler]

I thought it was always 800 million plus merchandise and video sales to break even and 900+ million for it to break even by theatrical sales alone.

 

[regnak]

I'm still wondering how the hell the budget for this thing got so high? I mean take an example like Transformers 3 which had GIGANTIC and prolonged action sequences, infinitely more CGI, shot on location in (Chicago), expensive directors and actors and is still somehow cost about $60 mill less. Where did all that extra money go because i didnt see it on the screen

Well it has been reported Snyder shot 4 hours of footage. So a lot of budget was left on the cutting room floor.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I thought it was always 800 million plus merchandise and video sales to break even and 900+ million for it to break even by theatrical sales alone.

It is. But there's no telling how much this movie will make off those ancillary sectors. What if it does half of the money expected? That's a real possibility. Counting chickens, and all that

 

[FunkMiller]

According to Deadline, the film needs to turn over a profit of between $925 - $930 million in its theatrical run alone (before any ancillaries such as TV syndication, DVD sales etc).

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...the-box-office-to-make-a-profit-a6961156.html

You're welcome

And that's from the independent. A paper that does not print a story without checking its fact first, and making sure they present an unbiased position in their reporting.

 

[regnak]

Wow banned on the second post that must be a record.

 

[kedrell]

I think it'll end up between 8.7-8.8M. I'm basing that on it doing slightly worse than it did last week against Boss. 1.14 increase on Friday, .7 increase on Saturday, and .4 decrease on Sunday. Last week was about +1.25, +.75, and -.38 respectively. It would normally would not have had actual decreases in its 4th weekend, but this time it was facing some real competition.

I see it's Saturday increase being between a .5 -.6 rather than the .7+ they are claiming with the estimates. You can probably shave a .05 - .1 of the Friday & Sunday numbers as well once the actuals roll in tomorrow. All told I think their estimates for the weekend are around 6% too high. Could tumble as much as $500k when the actuals come in.

 

[Bebop Cowboy]

Can someone help me with the math. I'm not disputing the $900m figure to break even, but can someone explain me the breakdown please?

$400m to make and for marketing... can someone tell me where the other $500m is that they need to recoup to turn a profit. Sorry, I'm a noob when it comes to this sort of stuff.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Can someone help me with the math. I'm not disputing the $900m figure to break even, but can someone explain me the breakdown please?

$400m to make and for marketing... can someone tell me where the other $500m is that they need to recoup to turn a profit. Sorry, I'm a noob when it comes to this sort of stuff.

Slightly different numbers here but it's a former studio exec and he breaks it down pretty throughly.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...an-v-superman-a-good-investment/#4cc9b8b47d67

 

[Poni_Boy]

Can someone help me with the math. I'm not disputing the $900m figure to break even, but can someone explain me the breakdown please?

$400m to make and for marketing... can someone tell me where the other $500m is that they need to recoup to turn a profit. Sorry, I'm a noob when it comes to this sort of stuff.

Studios don't keep every dollar a movie makes at the box office. The theater chains take about 50% domestically and 65% internationally. Plus WB isn't the only production company behind BvS. Ratner's RatPac and two other companies will profit from the movie before WB gets their cut.

 

[kedrell]

There's taxes and the theater owners(we call them exhibitors) get around half the take as well(individual circumstances vary from film to film and studio to studio though). Half of $900m is $450m which ain't far off from the $400m they say this cost.

 

[FunkMiller]

Slightly different numbers here but it's a former studio exec and he breaks it down pretty throughly.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...an-v-superman-a-good-investment/#4cc9b8b47d67

So if it hits 895 million, the actual profit is 126 million pretax, and that's at the absolute top end of expectations, but could 30 to 40 million less... so 90 or so million pretax as a middle ground. But if it only makes 850 million total, which it could well do, then the pretax profit could be as little as 45 million. So post tax profit of what? 30 million dollars, tops?

$30 million dollar profit on a movie starring the most recognised superhero characters in history.

 

[InCali]

I see it's Saturday increase being between a .5 -.6 rather than the .7+ they are claiming with the estimates. You can probably shave a .05 - .1 of the Friday & Sunday numbers as well once the actuals roll in tomorrow. All told I think their estimates for the weekend are around 6% too high. Could tumble as much as $500k when the actuals come in.

It certainly could. Dropping to .6 on Saturday alone would bring it into the lower 8M range not to mention a larger Sunday decrease.

 

[Bebop Cowboy]

Thanks guys, much appreciated. I guess for any movie it is an uphill battle trying to turn a profit with these circumstances. With these sorts of figures, it is so important for costs not to blow out, shoots to be stricter and the vision and storyline of the film to be almost a sure fire hit when spending this amount of money.

Time will tell if WB get rid of Snyder I guess.

 

[InCali]

So if it hits 895 million, the actual profit is 126 million pretax, and that's at the absolute top end of expectations, but could 30 to 40 million less... so 90 or so million pretax as a middle ground. But if it only makes 850 million total, which it could well do, then the pretax profit could be as little as 45 million. So post tax profit of what? 30 million dollars, tops?

$30 million dollar profit on a movie starring the most recognised superhero characters in history.

And, as we all know, that's a guess too.

If it's anywhere in the ballpark, those aren't good numbers.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So if it hits 895 million, the actual profit is 126 million pretax, and that's at the absolute top end of expectations, but could 30 to 40 million less... so 90 or so million pretax as a middle ground. But if it only makes 850 million total, which it could well do, then the pretax profit could be as little as 45 million. So post tax profit of what? 30 million dollars, tops?

$30 million dollar profit on a movie starring the most recognised superhero characters in history.

Not to mention the bottom acceptable profit for a movie like this is 10% return on investment. Assuming $400 mil is accurate to the dollar BvS would need to make $40 mil profit to be considered an acceptable return.

 

[noakai]

Thanks guys, much appreciated. I guess for any movie it is an uphill battle trying to turn a profit with these circumstances. With these sorts of figures, it is so important for costs not to blow out, shoots to be stricter and the vision and storyline of the film to be almost a sure fire hit when spending this amount of money.

Time will tell if WB get rid of Snyder I guess.

I honestly don't know who gave the okay for a budget that big, but I think that's a big part of the problem, too. I know they probably expected it to break $1bil but that's no excuse for making a movie that needed such a big BO total to be profitable. It puts the movie in such a bad position before it's even released, it's almost impossible to live up to that.

 

[MadVillainy]

I honestly don't know who gave the okay for a budget that big, but I think that's a big part of the problem, too. I know they probably expected it to break $1bil but that's no excuse for making a movie that needed such a big BO total to be profitable. It puts the movie in such a bad position before it's even released, it's almost impossible to live up to that.

But at least with a Batman and Superman movie it kinda makes sense or at least one would think so. It's better than Disney putting out a John Carter franchise starter movie that needed 800 mill to break even lol

 

[Tacit Ronin]

They needed extra money for that totally weightless, digital Batmobile sequence.