Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kanon]

China Box Office @ChinaBoxOffice

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR debuted with ¥199M ($30.6M) on Friday (includes $2.6M midnights).

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/728594018087636992

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So great but not a record. $100m opening weekend would be nice.

 

[WilliamK99]

Any chance this movie beats BvS worldwide total by next Sunday?

 

[Gerontophobe]

For reference on the China numbers, AoU did $33.9M its first day but that was a Tuesday. F7 did $68.8M its first day but that was a Sunday. TF4 did $91.9M its first weekend from a Friday open.

Depending on how it falls, CW may cross $100M OW in China. Assuming that territory doesn't hate it, a final north of $200M looks likely.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Any chance this movie beats BvS worldwide total by next Sunday?

As in by May 15th? I think it is quite likely. The international numbers for this weekend will give us a much better idea of how it is holding and whether China will be massive.

 

[Iceman]

Any word on the (US) Thursday midnight numbers?

 

[JOE]

Any word on the (US) Thursday midnight numbers?

This is what I'm waiting for as well.

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah I really wonder what its preview night did to. I was surprised when I went last night the theater I was in was only like 55-60% full. I figured it would be a lot more full then that.

 

[Kuestmaster]

This for sure will be bigger than BvS and will have stronger legs, I can even see it having the second best OW of all time just behind Star Wars. The Force Awakens is untouchable, nothing will beat it. Well, maybe Ep. VIII.

 

[KangConquers]

Yeah I really wonder what its preview night did to. I was surprised when I went last night the theater I was in was only like 55-60% full. I figured it would be a lot more full then that.

I went to a 100% packed iMax showing. Literally the only time I've seen that theater full.

 

[JOE]

This for sure will be bigger than BvS and will have stronger legs, I can even see it having the second best OW of all time just behind Star Wars. The Force Awakens is untouchable, nothing will beat it. Well, maybe Ep. VIII.

I don't even think Ep. VIII will touch that record. The only movie I see with that chance is the second Infinity War movie. Beyond that, I have no idea.

 

[johnboy3434]

Actually, I'm going to be a chicken****. LAST MINUTE ESTIMATE REVISION!

Opening Day: $81.2M
--Thursday previews: $18.5M
--Friday: $62.7M
Saturday: $69.9M (-14%)
Sunday: $54.3M (-22.2%)

OPENING WEEKEND TOTAL: $205M

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC: $650M (3.16x)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$25 million Thursday per Gitesh.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 3m3 minutes ago
Big $25M THU pre-show debut for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. 9-10% below #BatmanvSuperman & #Ultron. Wknd may reach about $180M.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/728610492697161728

 

[Filmfan93]

I don't even think Ep. VIII will touch that record. The only movie I see with that chance is the second Infinity War movie. Beyond that, I have no idea.

Agree, Ep. VIII won't be carrying the hype that TFA carried as a sequel to ROTJ 33 years later and the first SW film in 11 years. And I also agree that only Infinity War Part 2 has a chance of beating TFA's OW. And being optimistic, maybe even Part 1.

 

[Filmfan93]

$25 million Thursday per Gitesh.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 3m3 minutes ago
Big $25M THU pre-show debut for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. 9-10% below #BatmanvSuperman & #Ultron. Wknd may reach about $180M.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/728610492697161728

I think the OW will be a bit higher than $180 million. I say about $190-200 million.

 

[WilliamK99]

Good number, imagine legs will be much better than AOU

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think the OW will be a bit higher than $180 million. I say about $190-200 million.

Yeah, I wouldn't write off $200 million yet. But whether it gets there or not this is a good start. It's something like $15 million more than TWS made in previews and only about $3 million less than AoU. So as expected it's definitely playing more like an Avengers film than a CA movie.

 

[spiderman2]

$25 million Thursday per Gitesh.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 3m3 minutes ago
Big $25M THU pre-show debut for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. 9-10% below #BatmanvSuperman & #Ultron. Wknd may reach about $180M.

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/728610492697161728

So sounds like it may end up being lower then 200 OW?

Agree, Ep. VIII won't be carrying the hype that TFA carried as a sequel to ROTJ 33 years later and the first SW film in 11 years. And I also agree that only Infinity War Part 2 has a chance of beating TFA's OW. And being optimistic, maybe even Part 1.

I cant belive I am saying this about star wars but I think people are under estimating episode 8. I have heard a lot of people saying they think it will drop off by like 200m USA compared to 7 but I only see it dropping that much if 8 is not that good. Yes it was the first star wars movie in 10 years but I think there where a lot of people iff about it because of the prequles and how crappy they where. I think 7 won a lot of people back and so I think 8 will do around the same USA maybe 100m less but I think that is like worst and OS I think it may do even more.

 

[third3ye]

I wouldn't consider the lower Thursday preview than BvS and AoU to mean much for the entire weekend, both of those films are going to be more front-loaded than CW, BvS especially. Strong WOM will give this a higher OW multiplier.

 

[take3]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 6 Min.Vor 6 Minuten
Solid $29.6M intl THU for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Intl cume at $291.2M going into today's openings in US & China. $600-700M global by SUN.

 

[third3ye]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 6 Min.Vor 6 Minuten
Solid $29.6M intl THU for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Intl cume at $291.2M going into today's openings in US & China. $600-700M global by SUN.

EDIT: Never mind read it wrong

 

[Raiden]

I think 200M is definitely within reach, and I think the Mother's Day weekend will entice more people to see CW as well. This movie will have very strong WOM and not as front loaded as BVS, so I think it's going to have a very long and healthy run at the box office.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yes it will make 180 m if it performs like AOU over the weekend but I'm willing to bet it does better...Much better.

WOM is about to explode Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I wouldn't consider the lower Thursday preview than BvS and AoU to mean much for the entire weekend, both of those films are going to be more front-loaded than CW, BvS especially. Strong WOM will give this a higher OW multiplier.

Exactly.

BvS had terrible WOM and made 166 m from 27 m Thursday previews.

AOU had decent WOM and made 190 m from 27 m Thursday previews.

But CW is going to make only 180 m from 25 m with outstanding WOM.

Lol, okay. If he says so.

 

[Silver Surfer]

JW had an 18.3 midnight number, 200 million ow will happen.