Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Stark Bauer]

I'm predicting at least $200M OW

 

[Mysteryman]

Anybody want to predict just what it will do today?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I want this to do 200ow but with those preview numbers it might come under AOU. I'm thinking the 180s now. I could be wrong because Marvel movies seem to always surprise at the box office. This could still go into the 190s though. I'm more curious to see that Saturday number though.

 

[Tony Stark]

Previews were lower than I expected, but this film won't be as front loaded as BvS was, and the Saturday hold will be better than Ultron. The big question will be Sunday for Mothers day.

I'm going to say 185-195 at this point.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm still hoping at least $200M for CW. Just because it had low preview numbers doesn't mean it might not surprise.

 

[third3ye]

Also guys, don't forget Thursday was Cinco de Mayo, probably hurt theater traffic and had some effect on preview $s.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Marvel movies have always received mad walk-in biz so I'm not worried about the low Thur opening. This thing is still going to be over $200M this weekend DOM.

 

[Jordanstine]

Thursday Previews are not the best predicators of Overall Weekend numbers.

AOU did $27M on previews and ended with $191M

BVS did more with $28M but still ended with less at $166M

Don't forget that Avengers only did $18M previews before breaking world records.

 

[KangConquers]

As long as this breaks $500 M domestic, and does more money overall than AoU, I'm happy.

 

[mustapantteri]

Thursday previews are hardly a good indicators of the final OW. BvS came out when schools and colleges were on a spring break and Good Friday was the next day off. CW came out when students are preparing for finals and the next day is normal school day so many will go on Friday instead.

 

[regnak]

Also guys, don't forget Thursday was Cinco de Mayo, probably hurt theater traffic and had some effect on preview $s.

Damn straight, my town had a party that blocked off the street my theater is on. Made getting to it difficult.

 

[Iceman]

Thursday Previews are not the best predicators of Overall Weekend numbers.

AOU did $27M on previews and ended with $191M

BVS did more with $28M but still ended with less at $166M

Don't forget that Avengers only did $18M previews before breaking world records.

Yep.

Thursday previews are hardly a good indicators of the final OW. BvS came out when schools and colleges were on a spring break and Good Friday was the next day off. CW came out when students are preparing for finals and the next day is normal school day so many will go on Friday instead.

Yep & welcome.

 

[Kanon]

UPDATE, 12 PM: Captain America: Civil War‘s matinees are currently tracking 10%-13% behind Avengers: Age Of Ultron, putting the Disney/Marvel title on track for a $75 million-$80 million Friday and a projected weekend at this point of $178M-$188M. While that’s Captain America: Civil Warunder Ultron‘s $191.27M, man, that’s really not something to cry about. Should Civil War hook that opening, it will make it the fifth-highest domestic opening of all time ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $174M. A big plus for Disney this weekend: 21% of all colleges are off, a number that moves up to 36% on Monday, and then 53% next Friday.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-opening-weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/

80M Friday is great, IMO. My predictions over 200M for the OW were based on a 80-85 M Friday

 

[Tony Stark]

That's a pretty early prediction too not accounting for the amount of walk-in business. WOM seems like it will be good on this, from those that have seen it already. We'll see if this goes up in the evening.

 

[Kanon]

That's a pretty early prediction too not accounting for the amount of walk-in business. WOM seems like it will be good on this, from those that have seen it already. We'll see if this goes up in the evening.

I refuse to believe it will have lower multipliers than A1 or AoU, with most of the MCU cast, old and new, plus the long awaited Spidey, all fighting each other. Sunday we will know, but I think WOM would be unprecedented.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I refuse to believe it will have lower multipliers than A1 or AoU, with most of the MCU cast, old and new, plus the long awaited Spidey, all fighting each other. Sunday we will know, but I think WOM would be unprecedented.

While I agree that the internal multiple should be better than AoU ($80M Friday = $181M OW), I doubt it will manage to better Avengers' multiple (=$205M OW) as that film had pretty small Thursday previews (since they began at midnight, I believe).

If the Friday number does end up being $80M, then to beat $200M for the weekend it needs to play like Guardians of the Galaxy, which is tough since that was a much smaller opening. Regardless, beating Avengers ($80.8M FRI) and JW ($82M FRI) seems very unlikely

 

[Erzengel]

Aren't the thursday previews included?

 

[brandeezy89]

I don't see anything over 80M for today

 

[Gerontophobe]

I'm a little surprised that CW's twitter activity isn't stronger. It has been around a fourth of BvS levels for the last few days. The positive-to-negative ratio is much stronger that BvS (2-3X better) and thus good, but it doesn't come close to touching the super positive reactions of some recent films (Zootopia, Jungle Book, and I think Deadpool). So maybe WOM isn't going to be as strong as I though after seeing it.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Aren't the thursday previews included?

Yes, the previews get rolled into the Thursday number. I'm pretty sure Avengers started shows at midnight and not 7PM like CW. That means it had a much lower Thursday and higher "true" Thursday number. Basically, if CW does $80M for its total Friday number (about the same as Avengers), it made notably less than Avengers did on Friday and thus likely will have a lower internal weekend multiple.

 

[Tony Stark]

FWIW, mojo is still predicting 210 even with the 25M previews. That seems high to me, but I'm probably being cautious because we've been caught too many times overestimating films and then the trolls come in to start talking "bomb" or "disappointment".

Based on the reviews this should get a minimum of an "A" cinemascore but I'm betting on "A+". The worst score for a Marvel film was the first Thor, which got a "B+", everything else was A- or better. Age of Ultron, and IM2 and 3 all got an A despite the complaints from the comic book sites.

 

[Jordanstine]

Not sure what kind of effect this has on the box office, but I didn't like the fact that Marvel was releasing way too many clips of the movie, including the B-roll BTS footage that revealed plot points.

It lessened some of the more cooler surprises in the movie.

Spoiler

- Spidey saluting Cap
- Antman meeting Cap
- Antman vs Widow
- Cap vs Panther
- Cap vs Bucky
- Panther vs Bucky
- Bucky vs Team Ironman
- Tunnel chase (Audi commercial showed a minute and half of it)

I was talking with a friend of mine who felt the same, and who 6 weeks ago ago after just watching the final movie trailer wanted to see this movie on opening day, to now just waiting it out until Monday to avoid the bigger lines.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This movie deserves all the money.

 

[third3ye]

Not sure what kind of effect this has on the box office, but I didn't like the fact that Marvel was releasing way too many clips of the movie, including the B-roll BTS footage that revealed plot points.

I guess this is a matter of opinion. I actually thought Disney's marketing had a lot more restraint for this film than previous Marvel Studios films. There is A LOT of great stuff in the film that wasn't even remotely teased in previously shown footage, and the marketing only scratched the surface. Everyone here probably remembers AoU's marketing where they basically gave away all the major fights and then some. The CW marketing was much more well restrained IMO.

 

[Erzengel]

They redid my theater and it now only has the recliners, however, I can't get 2 seats side by side unless it's all the way at the front at one of the late showings.