Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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BvS had an incredible opening, beating almost all expectations, problem is movie was crap so it fell off a cliff after a great opening weekend...

Yep. BvS collapsed on its second weekend with a 69% drop. Civil War won't, because of the great WOM. Even if it drops with 50% (at the worst), it will have a $90 million second weekend (DOM) and probably hit $1 billion WW by next Sunday.
 
Well it's just the estimate they are giving. Final number will likely be different. My guess is it will be $1m-$2m higher.

I also think it may increase a bit. The absolute best case is an Avengers-like Saturday-to-Sunday drop which would put it ~$5M higher (pretty doubtful). Mother's Day may give it a slight boost though.
 
How many times has everyone PAID to see it? There's a difference than actually seeing it.

Going in to Sunday, my count is at 25. Treated friends and family on Friday. (19) Paid to see it on Thursday (saw the first 30 minutes then walked out to save the entire experience for the next day) and paid to see it twice on Saturday.

I plan on buying at least two more tickets today. Marvel Fans ASSEMBLE!
 
That 3 day China figure of 96million almost made me fall off my chair. It trumps BvS' entire gross there of 95 million!
 
The fatigue capes are coming! The fatigue capes are coming!

You know what some people are going to say, that it should've made more because it has the Avengers & Spidey, etc, etc. And reliable sources were predicting a 200m weekend:

Weekend Preview: After a $200.4 million international debut last weekend, Disney and Marvel's Captain America: Civil War is set to make its domestic debut, aiming to become only the fourth film to gross over $200 million in its opening weekend.

When it comes to Captain America: Civil War the question as to whether it will hit $200 million or not seems to be of little dispute.

That said, a weekend over $200 million is easy to forecast and even as much as $215 million isn't at all unreasonable.


http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4182&p=.htm

Predicting the BO is not as easy as it seems, that's why many predictions end up being off.

But it doesn't really matter, it's still a success, maybe the genre hit a ceiling with the first Avengers and no other superhero movie will make as much, but is not a failure when any of these movies make money for the studio. CW will probably make the billion club, although I find the one billion obsession silly, there are a lot of mediocre movies in that club:

Jurassic World: $1,670,400,637

Furious 7: $1,516,045,911

Frozen: $1,276,480,335

Iron Man 3: $1,215,439,994

Minions: $1,159,398,397

Transformers: Dark of the Moon: $1,123,794,079

Transformers: Age of Extinction: $1,104,054,072

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides: $1,045,713,802

Alice in Wonderland (2010): $1,025,467,110


All of the above made more than The Dark Knight ($1,004,558,444) and X-Men: Days of Future Past ($747,862,775), despite these two being superior movies than most of them, but unfortunately, most people prefer lighter, superficial stuff. Is DOFP a failure for not making a billion? I don't think so, most superhero movies don't make one billion anyway, what matters the most is studios being satisfied with what they get.
 
After seeing the movie, I can see it not having hyper mega legs. It's great, wonderful, probably the best MCU movie, but in its entirety not a feel good movie.

Still, OW is huge. 60M Saturday is a drop close to JW, A1, better than AoU. There is hope for a 190M OW

Everyone in my theater was pumped when they showed the last shot of Steve coming into focus to save the Avengers. Wasn't like that other at all
 
Very good numbers. A touch under my personal predictions (I expected the movie to be bigger in the US and China) but excellent nonetheless.
It should clear the billion dollar mark easily and given the current international trends land somewhere between Iron Man 3 and Age Of Ultron which would be a great result.
The next few days will help us determine wether or not it has the potential to outgross AoU domestically but the current estimates are encouraging on that front.
 
IM3 a mediocre movie? Balderdash. But I take your point. Lots of mediocre and even outright bad movies in that group. After all, the last two stinky Nolan Batman movies are there.
 
Marvel must be making it rain at their offices right now
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How many times has everyone PAID to see it? There's a difference than actually seeing it.

Going in to Sunday, my count is at 25. Treated friends and family on Friday. (19) Paid to see it on Thursday (saw the first 30 minutes then walked out to save the entire experience for the next day) and paid to see it twice on Saturday.

I plan on buying at least two more tickets today. Marvel Fans ASSEMBLE!

Sorry to interfere, but how could you pay for a viewing and not stay at your screening? It's your money, but IMO this is wasting it. I paid for 4 viewings and watched the whole movie at each one of them. I believe that's how it's supposed to be done lol.
 
How many times has everyone PAID to see it? There's a difference than actually seeing it.

Going in to Sunday, my count is at 25. Treated friends and family on Friday. (19) Paid to see it on Thursday (saw the first 30 minutes then walked out to save the entire experience for the next day) and paid to see it twice on Saturday.

I plan on buying at least two more tickets today. Marvel Fans ASSEMBLE!
what? I guess its your time and money but I only paid to see it once and will again when its out on BR. How can you not get sick of it after 5 times? I cant imagine 25. Theres so much other things to do and see
 
Yep. BvS collapsed on its second weekend with a 69% drop. Civil War won't, because of the great WOM. Even if it drops with 50% (at the worst), it will have a $90 million second weekend (DOM) and probably hit $1 billion WW by next Sunday.

Not to mention it will probably get a boost when Memorial Day comes, considering it's a Captain America film and all.
 
what? I guess its your time and money but I only paid to see it once and will again when its out on BR. How can you not get sick of it after 5 times? I cant imagine 25. Theres so much other things to do and see

He didn't actually see it 25 times and that's his point. He's asking people how many tickets they bought. He has so far bought 25 tickets: a bunch for his family and a few viewings for himself.

That said, I can't imagine having enough spare cash to buy 25 tickets. Wowza.
 
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He didn't actually see it 25 times an that's his point. He'as asking people how many tickets they bought. He has so far bought 25 tickets: a bunch for his family and a few viewings for himself.

Cool then.

4 viewings - 7 people total.
 
He didn't actually see it 25 times an that's his point. He'as asking people how many tickets they bought. He has so far bought 25 tickets: a bunch for his family and a few viewings for himself.

That said, I can't imagine having enough spare cash to buy 25 tickets. Wowza.
Thanks. I read that wrong
 
I've seen the film 6 times myself and paid for 19 tickets on behalf of a friends, family and the gf
 
I've seen it thrice so far. Would be seeing it again today but it's f%@#ing Mother's Day and so my Sunday has been hijacked. What is it with this country and it's insane holidays? Why need holidays at all? Ugh!:cmad:
 
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