Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tilapia]

I've seen it thrice so far. Would be seeing it again today but it's f%@#ing Mother's Day and so my Sunday has been hijacked. What is it with this country and it's insane holidays? Why need holidays at all? Ugh!

We need to drive the economy... Holidays are the way to do it. Spend some money on your mother please.

 

[grieven]

Article on the insanely epic box-office domination of Disney in 2016...

http://deadline.com/2016/05/disney-...le-book-captain-america-star-wars-1201751308/

With such films from the Disney stable as Zootopia, The Jungle Book and now Captain America: Civil War swinging at the global box office, The Walt Disney Studios scored a hat-trick of records this weekend. In 128 days of 2016, the Mouse crossed $1B domestic with $1.121B to date. The studio also crossed $2B international with $2.22B and zoomed past $3B global with $3.341B. Each is a new industry record, supplanting those set by Universal in 2015 which hit $2B international in 162 days; and $1B domestic and $3B global in 165.

Speed records to the $2B international and $3B global milestones have now been set two years in a row (before Uni raced to the benchmarks in 2015, Fox had held the records since 2010). Domestically in 2015, Uni bested Paramount’s record which dated back to 2008. Disney in 2015 got to $1B domestic in 174 days; its fastest ever climb at the time. It has now shaved roughly 37 days off all three records set last year.

It did so with Zootopia now the No. 1 movie of 2016 worldwide ($956.4M) and internationally ($628.8M); along with The Jungle Book at No. 3 globally ($776.2M) and No. 4 amongst Western films internationally ($491.2M); and Captain America: Civil War which is already the No. 5 movie worldwide of 2016 at $678.4M and the No. 3 Western title overseas at $496.6M. Those last figures are from one weekend of domestic and two of offshore play.

Also in the mix for Disney this year is a portion of Star Wars: The Force Awakens which continued play worldwide throughout early 2016 and grossed 30% of its domestic $936M in this calendar year. Another $125M came just from China in 2016.

Looking ahead for the Mouse, The Jungle Book has yet to bow in Korea and Japan. Beyond that is a series of titles that will continue to provide a mega boost to box office. Alice Through The Looking Glass starts international rollout on May 25; Pixar sequel Finding Dory gets its fins on June 16; Marvel’s Doctor Strange begins October 26; and Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story starts going galactic on December 14.

 

[kedrell]

We need to drive the economy... Holidays are the way to do it. Spend some money on your mother please.

I am. But she's not interested in superhero movies so it'll have to be dinner at The Outback I guess.

 

[InCali]

I've seen it thrice so far. Would be seeing it again today but it's f%@#ing Mother's Day and so my Sunday has been hijacked. What is it with this country and it's insane holidays? Why need holidays at all? Ugh!

I am. But she's not interested in superhero movies so it'll have to be dinner at The Outback I guess.

Those frelling moms....hijacking our independence again....WTF is the matter with them anyway???

Seriously, enjoy the time you get to spend with your mother (or father) whether or not it's what you would normally be doing. Someday you'll be glad you did.

We all just had a verrrrrrrry lonnnnnnng breakfast laced with generous amounts of champagne and I just cleaned up the kitchen. A great day IMO.

I think I'll sneak away for another viewing of CW.

 

[kedrell]

Well my dad's been gone since 1999. And it's just one thing after another these days. Last weekend it was my brother's birthday. The weekend before that it was my sister-in-law's birthday and the weekend before that it was my other brother's birthday. This weekend it's Mother's day and next weekend it's my cousin's birthday. UGH!!! WHat the hell is up with all this celebrating crap? Memorial Day(which used to be right around my dad's b-day) is soon to come and then MY birthday is a week after that. I'm putting my foot down when it gets to that. There will be NO god damn celebrating on my b-day. I'm putting everyone else on notice to just leave me the f*** alone when that day comes. This is what comes of having my entire family having all their birthdays clustered between Tax Day & the end of July(my mom's b-day). It's like a 2nd Holiday Season for me. For a guy like me who doesn't like to celebrate ANYTHING this can be a very taxing time of year. All I want to do is relax and watch CW. You don't see us having a Son's Day or a Daughter's Day do you? Though I wouldn't put it past them to try and enact some blatherskite like that.

OK, rant over.

 

[InCali]

Well my dad's been gone since 1999. And it's just one thing after another these days. Last weekend it was my brother's birthday. The weekend before that it was my sister-in-law's birthday and the weekend before that it was my other brother's birthday. This weekend it's Mother's day and next weekend it's my cousin's birthday. UGH!!! WHat the hell is up with all this celebrating crap? Memorial Day(which used to be right around my dad's b-day) is soon to come and then MY birthday is a week after that. I'm putting my foot down when it gets to that. There will be NO god damn celebrating on my b-day. I'm putting everyone else on notice to just leave me the f*** alone when that day comes. This is what comes of having my entire family having all their birthdays clustered between Tax Day & the end of July(my mom's b-day). It's like a 2nd Holiday Season for me. For a guy like me who doesn't like to celebrate ANYTHING this can be a very taxing time of year. All I want to do is relax and watch CW. You don't see us having a Son's Day or a Daughter's Day do you? Though I wouldn't put it past them to try and enact some blatherskite like that.

OK, rant over.

Yes, actually i do. It's called a birthday and the sons and daughters get all of the presents even though mom did the heavy lifting. I never understood that. Sorry about your father. My father died just before Xmas in 1999. He was as good a friend as I've ever had and not a day goes by that I don't miss him. The only thing that I (or anyone else) has to hang on to are the memories and the knowledge that we both loved spending time together. The same can be said for my mother (who is thankfully still alive).

There's a 4:25 at the Cinemark XD (3D) and I'll be catching it from my 3rd row seat. That's all that is available. Lucky for me, I like up front and center.

I think Sunday is going to be better than what they are predicting. I'm working off totally anecdotal info, but the Cinemark doesn't usually have so few seats available.

 

[warcam]

Well my dad's been gone since 1999. And it's just one thing after another these days. Last weekend it was my brother's birthday. The weekend before that it was my sister-in-law's birthday and the weekend before that it was my other brother's birthday. This weekend it's Mother's day and next weekend it's my cousin's birthday. UGH!!! WHat the hell is up with all this celebrating crap? Memorial Day(which used to be right around my dad's b-day) is soon to come and then MY birthday is a week after that. I'm putting my foot down when it gets to that. There will be NO god damn celebrating on my b-day. I'm putting everyone else on notice to just leave me the f*** alone when that day comes. This is what comes of having my entire family having all their birthdays clustered between Tax Day & the end of July(my mom's b-day). It's like a 2nd Holiday Season for me. For a guy like me who doesn't like to celebrate ANYTHING this can be a very taxing time of year. All I want to do is relax and watch CW. You don't see us having a Son's Day or a Daughter's Day do you? Though I wouldn't put it past them to try and enact some blatherskite like that.

OK, rant over.

My dad's been gone since 1991, my mom since 2010, and I'm an only child, so you'll understand if I don't feel bad about your predicament. Make the most of your time together while you can.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

I have seen the movie total of 3 times, in 2D, 3D, and 4D. The movie gets better with each viewing but I also think it's a lot more serious as well. Hopefully the awesome airport scene will make people want to see it over and over.

 

[kedrell]

All 3 times I saw it was in 2-D. Once was in IMAX and the other 2 were just regular screens.

 

[StormC]

I've seen it in IMAX 3D. Only afterwards did I find out my theater was showing it in regular IMAX as well. I'm seeing it tomorrow night in regular IMAX and later this month in a regular theater after I get home from a vacation.

Only other movie I saw thrice in theaters was TDK, which is my all time favorite movie. I think CW will crack my top ten.

 

[InCali]

I'm a YUGE fan of 3D (even have a 3D PJ at home) so it'll be straight 3D for me. Leaving now for tacos, beer, and a movie.

Be cool.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

My 3D kind of sucked since I bought tix to the front tow so parts of it were kind of whacked out for me. Close ups on faces made them look all distorted and weird. It was kind of trippy. The thing that really messed with me was when it said "London" or any other location. I will be mindful next time I am choosing seats online.

 

[JB33]

Wow kedrell you sound like a real joy.

I hope you don't have a really good mom. The only reason I say that is a really good mom would deserve better than you. I have the best mom in the world and I'm thankful for every minute I have with her. Sent her a card, a nice gift and told her how much I love and appreciate her today. Just try doing the same. Oh and for God's sake, get some therapy man. I actually mean that. What you just posted screams someone with issues.

There's my rant. I'm not trying to be mean either. It's solid advice from one comic book geek to another.

 

[third3ye]

A little disppointed with the DOM OW but very happy with WWBO. Great opening in China (already matched BvS cume there) and solid legs in holdover territories. This film will cross a billion well before tentpole competition opens on May 27.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

What I really can't wait for are next weekends drops. That's going to tell us a huge amount about this film. I think it will be just below 50%.

 

[PelvicSorcery]

I was expecting a little higher but still really impressive. It's not a straight up Captain America film so it can't really be compared, but still amazing that it almost doubled TWS's domestic opening weekend.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think 170-190 OW is the new cap (no pun) for the Avengers franchise.

The series has essentially entered Harry Potter territory where there are a lot of fans but they are the only people going to see those movies now.

I remember the hype and curiosity factor of the first Avengers lead a good deal of non comic book fans to want to check it out. Likewise a good deal of non Star Wars fans went to see TFA due to similar reasons of seeing what all the fuss is about?

People know what they will get by this point with the Avengers and they are either interested or not.

I don't see either IW films doing much more than AoU.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I think 170-190 OW is the new cap (no pun) for the Avengers franchise.

I don't see either IW films doing much more than AoU.

I disagree. Infinity War is going to be a cinematic undertaking. An epic of epic proportions. Neither Age of Ultron and Civil War were much bigger in scope than the original Avengers, but Infinity War is shaping up to be the superhero film that so many people have wanted to see, but never thought would ever be possible. Basically "MCU the movie" with every character Marvel owns and an all-powerful villain that is at the same time an interesting/developed character. If done right at least one of the IW films could cross 2 billion, let alone open higher than 190m. Probably the second one.

 

[AlluAllu]

Also, if I recall correctly, IW films will be the first big budget movies shot entirely in IMAX. That's got to give it a healthy boost.

It's certainly going to give a boost to my expenses. We don't have an IMAX theater in Finland, so I'm going to go to an another country just for those films. =D Well, maybe just for part II.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I disagree. Infinity War is going to be a cinematic undertaking. An epic of epic proportions. Neither Age of Ultron and Civil War were much bigger in scope than the original Avengers, but Infinity War is shaping up to be the superhero film that so many people have wanted to see, but never thought would ever be possible. Basically "MCU the movie" with every character Marvel owns and an all-powerful villain that is at the same time an interesting/developed character. If done right at least one of the IW films could cross 2 billion, let alone open higher than 190m. Probably the second one.

Read my whole point. Where are these other fans going to come from? The MCU has been in place for 8 years now, it's been 4 years since the Avengers and there's been diminishing returns from that since.

Things have sort of stabilized now where you have the devoted fans (ala Harry Potter series) who will propel the "big" MCU films to around 180-190+ million OW and 400 million+ domestic but those "curiosity" movie goers as I described just the average movie goer caught up in the hype have moved on.

Episode 8 for example will not open up as big as TFA for those reasons as well.

 

[Raiden]

I still hope that when the actual figure is out, CW will be closer to 190 than 180. The fact that it only dropped 20% from FRI to SAT is very encouraging.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'll add IW could make over 200 million OW, it's just I know some people here are going to predict outlandish claims like 230 million+ OW and yes 2 billion WW and just set themselves up for disappointment a 3rd MCU film in a row.

 

[marshal99]

Disney is just killing it in the box office. WIth the tim burton alice sequel coming this month , age of apocalypse will be up against it opening on the same day. Considering the last alice movie took in over a billion , apocalypse might find that the mouse is mightier.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Disney is just killing it in the box office. WIth the tim burton alice sequel coming this month , age of apocalypse will be up against it opening on the same day. Considering the last alice movie took in over a billion , apocalypse might find that the mouse is mightier.

Just remembered that so that means Age of Apocalypse is going to have some serious competition for that top spot and may have a somewhat depressed box office take due to that.

 

[spider-neil]

Disney is just killing it in the box office. WIth the tim burton alice sequel coming this month , age of apocalypse will be up against it opening on the same day. Considering the last alice movie took in over a billion , apocalypse might find that the mouse is mightier.

Alice making a billion was almost entirely down to it being 3D and coming hot on the heels of Avatar. The general audience needed its '3D fix'.
I will be utterly stunned if it gets anywhere near that number this time around.