Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Spiderdevil]

I think 170-190 OW is the new cap (no pun) for the Avengers franchise.

The series has essentially entered Harry Potter territory where there are a lot of fans but they are the only people going to see those movies now.

I remember the hype and curiosity factor of the first Avengers lead a good deal of non comic book fans to want to check it out. Likewise a good deal of non Star Wars fans went to see TFA due to similar reasons of seeing what all the fuss is about?

People know what they will get by this point with the Avengers and they are either interested or not.

I don't see either IW films doing much more than AoU.

I think you are right, even for some comic book fans it's too taxing to follow all the plots and previous movies to make sense out of everything in an Avengers movie, atleast that's the case with me

I am looking forward to the solo movies like Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Spider-man much more than IW movies

 

[Kanon]

So, my revised projections put CW Total DOM at 425M. Not bad for a slice of fried gold.

 

[PelvicSorcery]

NO!!!! So this actually isn't living up to expectations? I hope it doesn't have a dramatic fall next week. The following weeks are FILLED with competition so it could end in catastrophe which really pisses me off considering how much better it is than AoU

 

[Slushy]

Yeah, suck it, DC!

 

[WilliamK99]

NO!!!! So this actually isn't living up to expectations? I hope it doesn't have a dramatic fall next week. The following weeks are FILLED with competition so it could end in catastrophe which really pisses me off considering how much better it is than AoU

Overreact much?

180 million is in line with realistic expectations. I noticed many on this board were dead set on it making 200 million opening weekend, but that was never a realistic expectation...

 

[Kanon]

Overreact much?

180 million is in line with realistic expectations. I noticed many on this board were dead set on it making 200 million opening weekend, but that was never a realistic expectation...

220 it was in the realm of possibility. It was super optimistic, but there was precedent for 200+ OW, tracking was good to maybe surpass A1, etc. Just because it didn't happened doesn't mean there wasn't a chance. I feel that if Marvel had stepped on the gas with P&A, it could have been achieved (it would have been more frontloaded in the end though)

 

[WilliamK99]

220 it was in the realm of possibility. It was super optimistic, but there was precedent for 200+ OW, tracking was good to maybe surpass A1, etc. Just because it didn't happened doesn't mean there wasn't a chance. I feel that if Marvel had stepped on the gas with P&A, it could have been achieved (it would have been more frontloaded in the end though)

No it wasn't it was a fanboy dream. Numerous articles have been written explaining that once a movie hits the 160/170 million opening weekend range it is IMPOSSIBLE to realistically predict the opening weekend gross. Way too many unknown variables in place. 180 million is a great opening and anyone acting like it is a disappointing number, doesn't know much about the box office.

 

[Kanon]

No it wasn't it was a fanboy dream. Numerous articles have been written explaining that once a movie hits the 160/170 million opening weekend range it is IMPOSSIBLE to realistically predict the opening weekend gross. Way too many unknown variables in place. 180 million is a great opening and anyone acting like it is a disappointing number, doesn't know much about the box office.

I'm not saying is dissapointing, just saying is not crazy talk to predict a 220M OW, when A1 was the first ever to cross the 200M mark, and since then other 2 movies had done it (one being JW wich is not really special at all), and Marvel movies have been very close (this one actually got close). A 80M opening day (like BvS had) with a IM3 multiplier could have done it. It wasn't THAT crazy, just very optimistic.

 

[kedrell]

So, my revised projections put CW Total DOM at 425M. Not bad for a slice of fried gold.

That would give it the lowest multiplier of any MCU film to date. Considering the reviews and the internal multiplier from this weekend(the first actual concrete indications of good WOM) I'm willing to go out on a limb and say no way, no how does it end that low. If it has legs like Winter Soldier(which are good but still far from the best in the MCU) then it'll close with around $500m DOM.

 

[kedrell]

NO!!!! So this actually isn't living up to expectations? I hope it doesn't have a dramatic fall next week. The following weeks are FILLED with competition so it could end in catastrophe which really pisses me off considering how much better it is than AoU

Small chance of that. One thing this has going for it that other MCU early May openers didn't is that it got the Mother's Day holiday weekend out of the way on it's OW rather than on it's 2nd weekend. Mother's Day tends to give Sunday a depressed figure since people are busy elsewhere taking their mothers to diner and such and not going to the movies(other than a movie like Mother's Day of course but that was tailor made for this holiday). So look for a sub-50% drop next weekend since this weekend's Sunday was unusually depressed already due to the holiday. I'm figuring a 49% drop.

 

[Kanon]

That would give it the lowest multiplier of any MCU film to date. Considering the reviews and the internal multiplier from this weekend(the first actual concrete indications of good WOM) I'm willing to go out on a limb and say no way, no how does it end that low. If it has legs like Winter Soldier(which are good but still far from the best in the MCU) then it'll close with around $500m DOM.

I'm using IM3 multiplier. AoU was an option too, but that was a lower multiplier (IM3 2.35x, aoU 2.31x)
EDIT: Sorry, I messed up my numbers, those are weekend multipliers

 

[kedrell]

220 it was in the realm of possibility. It was super optimistic, but there was precedent for 200+ OW, tracking was good to maybe surpass A1, etc. Just because it didn't happened doesn't mean there wasn't a chance. I feel that if Marvel had stepped on the gas with P&A, it could have been achieved (it would have been more frontloaded in the end though)

With Sunday being Mother's Day? No, this breaking $200m would have been nearly as impressive a feat as what TFA did only 6 months ago...just for different reasons. I still think w/o Mother's Day this likely would have missed $200m but we'd be looking at a $190-195m OW instead.

 

[kedrell]

I'm using IM3 multiplier. AoU was an option too, but that was a lower multiplier (IM3 2.35x, aoU 2.31x)

AoU has a 2.399X(basically a 2.4X). You got IM3's right though. IM3 has the lowest multiplier in the MCU and your projections for CW would give it a 2.33X. I'm betting on something more like a 2.75X.

 

[Kanon]

AoU has a 2.399X(basically a 2.4X). You got IM3's right though. IM3 has the lowest multiplier in the MCU and your projections for CW would give it a 2.33X. I'm betting on something more like a 2.75X.

Hopefull, that's close to Cap former multipliers, and would be huge seeing that the OW was double of Winter Soldier and triple of The First Avenger

 

[mightiest_mortal]

I think it released at a good time in UK at least.
Summer's finally hit hard over the weekend so there could be a pretty big drop-off. Beaches and beer gardens are so much more appealing in this weather.

 

[JOE]

A 2.75 multiplier would be nice, would snuggle it nice and close to 500M. Anything above 450M DOM is a win in my book.

How are OS numbers looking?

 

[InCali]

Wow kedrell you sound like a real joy.

I hope you don't have a really good mom. The only reason I say that is a really good mom would deserve better than you. I have the best mom in the world and I'm thankful for every minute I have with her. Sent her a card, a nice gift and told her how much I love and appreciate her today. Just try doing the same. Oh and for God's sake, get some therapy man. I actually mean that. What you just posted screams someone with issues.

There's my rant. I'm not trying to be mean either. It's solid advice from one comic book geek to another.

I think you mean "2nd best" mom in the world. The really cool thing is that we both like all of the same movies and series. Orphan Black, SH movies, Star Wars, Batman, you name it. Hanging out with her is so much fun. I just finished landscaping her backyard and am putting the finishing touches on the garage remodel for her new home theater.

I'm a YUGE fan of 3D (even have a 3D PJ at home) so it'll be straight 3D for me. Leaving now for tacos, beer, and a movie.

Be cool.

Betcha thought I was lying, huh? t:

 

[Iceman]

A 2.75 multiplier would be nice, would snuggle it nice and close to 500M. Anything above 450M DOM is a win in my book.

How are OS numbers looking?

Yes I think that's a good target. WOM I think will be very positive and the airport battle alone should guarantee a healthy number of rewatches.

It's just under $500m overseas as of the end of the 2nd weekend (1st weekend in some major territories like China).

 

[InCali]

So, my revised projections put CW Total DOM at 425M. Not bad for a slice of fried gold.

I think that's low. I think closer to 500M is more realistic. There's no reason it can't do AoU numbers DOM. I think it'll hold up better.

 

[JOE]

I think that's low. I think closer to 500M is more realistic. There's no reason it can't do AoU numbers DOM. I think it'll hold up better.

The bigger question is if the movie can do AoU numbers overseas. 400M is in the bag domestically, assuming the legs are decent and it doesn't have a 70% drop off next weekend. The close it gets to 950M OS, the bigger the chance of passing IM3 and possibly AoU worldwide. Still think it'll wedge itself somewhere in between the two.

 

[Iceman]

I think that's low. I think closer to 500M is more realistic. There's no reason it can't do AoU numbers DOM. I think it'll hold up better.

It's opened in the same ballpark as AoU worldwide and I think it can hold at least as well pretty much everywhere. AoU numbers worldwide should be in sight.

 

[InCali]

Overreact much?

180 million is in line with realistic expectations. I noticed many on this board were dead set on it making 200 million opening weekend, but that was never a realistic expectation...

Our expectations are always realistic "after" the BO numbers come in. I note that people predict these wild numbers and then we say "XXX was realistic".

I thought it could nudge up towards 200M, but also felt that anything in that general range (and 180 is in that range) would be great.

 

[InCali]

The bigger question is if the movie can do AoU numbers overseas. 400M is in the bag domestically, assuming the legs are decent and it doesn't have a 70% drop off next weekend. The close it gets to 950M OS, the bigger the chance of passing IM3 and possibly AoU worldwide. Still think it'll wedge itself somewhere in between the two.

I think the numbers will be similar OS.

 

[JOE]

It's opened in the same ballpark as AoU worldwide and I think it can hold at least as well pretty much everywhere. AoU numbers worldwide should be in sight.

I think the numbers will be similar OS.

Lets play a "worst case scenario" game.

What if the drop is huge for this next weekend? I think this movie should still be slightly higher than BvS domestically because there's no way it's legs are going to be that weak with the positive WOM and stellar reviews.

Call it at 375M just to be extra cautious?

Then you have AoU to compare it to overseas since the numbers are just shy. Lets say, again to be cautious, that this movie brings in 80% of what AoU brought in overseas. That's 756M right there, which I think would be a conservative number for this flick.

Right there you have over 1.1B locked in. The rest is gravy guys, don't sweat it!

 

[Iceman]

Lets play a "worst case scenario" game.

What if the drop is huge for this next weekend? I think this movie should still be slightly higher than BvS domestically because there's no way it's legs are going to be that weak with the positive WOM and stellar reviews.

Call it at 375M just to be extra cautious?

Then you have AoU to compare it to overseas since the numbers are just shy. Lets say, again to be cautious, that this movie brings in 80% of what AoU brought in overseas. That's 756M right there, which I think would be a conservative number for this flick.

Right there you have over 1.1B locked in. The rest is gravy guys, don't sweat it!

Yep, I definitely would have taken that this time last year.