Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[LucDisfilm19]

222 OW 666 Total

I hope for this, too.

 

[InCali]

Can't get the link from my phone but Boxofficemojo has a page for all time adjusted numbers. The complication with Star Wars is the rereleases made a lot of money too and are included.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

I'm pretty sure what they did with SW was adjusted each release when it came out and added everything up. In other words, they didn't adjust the BO total up from when it was first released.

Those "adjusted" comparisons are dubious at best.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Per @ChinaBoxOffice, CW got $2.6 million from Thursday midnight shows in China. That's fourth behind F7, AoU and Transformers 4.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

I'm pretty sure what they did with SW was adjusted each release when it came out and added everything up. In other words, they didn't adjust the BO total up from when it was first released.

Those "adjusted" comparisons are dubious at best.

Thanks. Yes that's what I was talking about, should help the other guy. Yes like you say it just means the figure doesn't show the impact of only the original film when it came out in case that's what was being asked about.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Per @ChinaBoxOffice, CW got $2.6 million from Thursday midnight shows in China. That's fourth behind F7, AoU and Transformers 4.

Is that ... bad?

 

[Gerontophobe]

Per @ChinaBoxOffice, CW got $2.6 million from Thursday midnight shows in China. That's fourth behind F7, AoU and Transformers 4.

So $200M+ from China is looking very likely. AoU did $240M, AoE did $320M, and F7 did $390M.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Is that ... bad?

No. It's good. Those films did amazing in China.

 

[JOE]

Is that ... bad?

Not at all.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Ok.
So any predictions on how much it will end up with in China?

 

[Evan Drew]

Quick question:

Which will pass BvS first? Civil War or Jungle Book?

Now I'm out before I get spoiled!!

 

[third3ye]

Quick question:

Which will pass BvS first? Civil War or Jungle Book?

Now I'm out before I get spoiled!!

I think they're both going to surpass BvS in the same week, could be in 2 or 3 weeks. I just did some quick guess work and I believe both films will surpass the $850m mark after May 14-15 weekend. If legs for both films hold up, they'll pass BvS that week, and if not, likely the week after. The big question here is how much legs JB will have after CW opens.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I think they're both going to surpass BvS in the same week, could be in 2 or 3 weeks. I just did some quick guess work and I believe both films will surpass the $850m mark after May 14-15 weekend. If legs for both films hold up, they'll pass BvS that week, and if not, likely the week after. The big question here is how much legs JB will have after CW opens.

I suspect JB will be okay. Its OS drop last weekend was less than 50% even with CW blowing up everywhere. Anecdotally, at my local Cinemark it actually has three more shows total (21 v 18) scheduled this weekend than Ratchet & Clank, which just opened last weekend (tho R&C has 12 3D shows versus 6 for JB). Of course, all the action is on CW, which is getting TFA-level love at 50 shows for FSS. I hope they stocked up on popcorn and artificial butter-flavored grease!

 

[third3ye]

Ok.
So any predictions on how much it will end up with in China?

I'm going with $275m, I think this can do better than AoU. OW is shaping up about the same as AoU but strong reviews/WOM should give this better legs. Not sure if there's some big local film coming out during CW's run that could derail my projection though.

 

[Tony Stark]

Quick question:

Which will pass BvS first? Civil War or Jungle Book?

Now I'm out before I get spoiled!!

That's a good question. JB isn't that far behind BvS at 722, but I'm not sure how many more international markets it has yet to hit, but it's had incredibly strong legs and good word of mouth, but domestically Civil War will be ahead of JB's domestic total by the 2nd weekend, so I'm going to say Civil War will get there first, but it will be close.

 

[johnboy3434]

Quick question:

Which will pass BvS first? Civil War or Jungle Book?

Now I'm out before I get spoiled!!

My estimates have CW passing BvS domestically on day nine (the second Saturday). I'm not even going to attempt an international estimate.

 

[Jordanstine]

Funny story today, I spoke to 6 of my co-workers after our conference ended, they're men between the ages of 25 - 40 who are basically regular audiences who aren't familiar with the comic books, and 5 out of the 6 didn't even know that Spider-Man was in the new "Captain America movie", and the movie comes out tonight!

Only 2 out of the 6 are planning on seeing the movie "sometime in the next couple weeks", and 1 of them didn't even he didn't know Spider-Man was in it - his reason for seeing Civil War was because his kid liked Iron Man and knew that Iron Man was in this movie "from the posters".

After they found out Spidey was in this movie, they all looked surprised, and the other 4 who weren't originally planning on catching Civil War say that Spidey in this film did pique their interest.

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.

 

[spiderman2]

It would be interesting to see how much money would this movie had made if it was just captain America 3? I mean with out iron man, spiderman ect. The first captain America made about 370m WW the second one made about 714 and considering the reception to the second one I am sure the amount was going to go up even with out iron man, spiderman ect. But then you add spiderman the most popular super hero and you add RDJ iron man the most popular actor playing a hero and you also add black panther a hero we have yet to see in a movie before that is going to added to the hype even more.

 

[third3ye]

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.

In your case, WOM helped spread the word on Spidey, so marketing sorta did their job there. The studio is trying to balance between marketing exposure and not spoiling the film. I think after the film opens, they'll start showing Spidey much more in the marketing materials. For box office, this strategy in theory would give the film a slightly lower OW but stronger legs. Given the really strong positive WOM on Spidey thus far, I don't think Marvel has left any dollars on the table.

 

[Erzengel]

I remember during Attack of the Clones, they kept hidden that Yoda would be using a lightsaber then after several weeks, he was included in the commercials.

 

[mightiest_mortal]

I remember during Attack of the Clones, they kept hidden that Yoda would be using a lightsaber then after several weeks, he was included in the commercials.

UH That was awful. For everything bad in the prequels that was the point for me where it was clear Lucas had no clue at all what had made the originals a success.

 

[Kanon]

No forecast from BoxOfficeMojo yet?

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.

The arrangement with Sony complicates things:

The reason why we still won’t talk about [the costume] is that Marvel and Sony still have to work out what uses they have for the character, on a promotional level, on a commercial level. There’s still complications as far as that goes that involves business deals."

http://www.melty.com/captain-americ...ain-why-we-haven-t-seen-spider-man-a3234.html

 

[parkerpete]

In your case, WOM helped spread the word on Spidey, so marketing sorta did their job there. The studio is trying to balance between marketing exposure and not spoiling the film. I think after the film opens, they'll start showing Spidey much more in the marketing materials. For box office, this strategy in theory would give the film a slightly lower OW but stronger legs. Given the really strong positive WOM on Spidey thus far, I don't think Marvel has left any dollars on the table.

Yeah, they handled it perfectly with just a tease to show he was in the film, but not building too much marketing around him. People have to remember that one of the things that hurts movies is when you don't deliver on your marketing. If people go in expecting tons of Spider-Man and then he only get a few scenes, they feel cheated. On the other hand, if you market the film based on Cap and Iron Man's central conflict and deliver that with a side of Spidey, it's just gravy on the cake.

I may have just mixed metaphors there, or I have a disgusting diet. You decide.

 

[StormC]

I remember during Attack of the Clones, they kept hidden that Yoda would be using a lightsaber then after several weeks, he was included in the commercials.

Pretty sure they showed it at the end of one of the trailers actually.

 

[Erzengel]

UH That was awful. For everything bad in the prequels that was the point for me where it was clear Lucas had no clue at all what had made the originals a success.

I think he was just smart taking the best part of his story and doing that first.

I think Jackson ran into the same issue with the Hobbit.