Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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My personal weekend breakdown, without going on any other estimates...

Opening Day: $78.9M
--Thursday previews: $18M
--Friday: $60.9M
Saturday: $67.8M (-14%)
Sunday: $52.7M (-22.2%)

Opening Weekend Total: $199M

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $631M (3.16x)
 
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Quick mention in that article about Disney obliterating Universal's fastest to a billion domestic record last year. Universal reached a billion domestic in 165 days, by Saturday Disney would've done it in 128 days :eek:

Universal broke the record last year with Jurassic World and Furious 7, and although I like these two movies, they aren't as good as Zootopia and The Jungle Book from Disney this year. I'm sure I'll like Civil War more than those two as well.
 
That's why i said "the grim/dark brigade". I didn't say "DC fanbase", that would be unfair. We all know that there is a big portion of DC fans looking down everything that doesn't fit that M.O. It's the kind of people lurking on Batman.News.com and call Avengers "the worst thing that happened in blockbuster cinema". Or the guys in the DCEU FB page. I have no problem with someone prefering one style. When you condemn everything else and isolate one element to support a bs argument because you are insecure, then i have no respect for those kind of people.

It wasn't directed to you or any other rational DC fan. Bu trust me there are many of you who are quite irrational. Of course that applies to MCU fans as well. Those aren't as vocal though.


Anyway back to my original point can someone find me the SW grossings adjusting for inflation? I'm speaking about the OG trilogy.

I already did on an earlier post.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

I'm pretty sure what they did with SW was adjusted each release when it came out and added everything up. In other words, they didn't adjust the BO total up from when it was first released.

Those "adjusted" comparisons are dubious at best.
 
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Anything at 200m or above is a win to me. I just want another MCU film to cross that milestone.

Anything in the "friendly neighborhood" of 200M is a YUGE win for Marvel. These number being thrown around are nuts....hopefully true, but, still, nuts!!!
 
Funny story today, I spoke to 6 of my co-workers after our conference ended, they're men between the ages of 25 - 40 who are basically regular audiences who aren't familiar with the comic books, and 5 out of the 6 didn't even know that Spider-Man was in the new "Captain America movie", and the movie comes out tonight!

Only 2 out of the 6 are planning on seeing the movie "sometime in the next couple weeks", and 1 of them didn't even he didn't know Spider-Man was in it - his reason for seeing Civil War was because his kid liked Iron Man and knew that Iron Man was in this movie "from the posters".

After they found out Spidey was in this movie, they all looked surprised, and the other 4 who weren't originally planning on catching Civil War say that Spidey in this film did pique their interest.

I think Marvel didn't capitalize on Spider-Man enough in regards to marketing and merchandising. Yes, they featured him finally in the new TV spots 2 weeks ago but nowhere to be found on posters or printed ads.

I can only imagine what the Box Office would be if Spidey had been featured more from the get-go including other ads not just simply TV trailers or on YouTube.


This is what I try to get across sometimes here. We are in a bubble near the extreme of people who think about these films. Many other GA members watch and love all the Marvel films but don't go out of their way to see a single trailer or read a review or even ever google anything to do with any of the films. The only time they see something is when they are a captive audience to certain types of marketing like billboards and trailers ahead of different films they see in the cinema. I mean I will watch every Bourne and Mission Impossible film and be very excited about them and buy them on blu-ray as soon as they come out & rewatch them all every so often, but I won't ever do anything outside of that or know a single thing about them (that everyone else doesn't know) before I see them in the cinema first time. All my anticipation goes to the things I'm MOST anticipating (for eg CBMs, fantasy novels and certain games) and it's the same for much of the GA who may be more into their favourite sports team, travel, reality TV :dry:, fashion, music or whatever even though they love the MCU films.

If a movie is tracking at or near 200M OW in the US/Canada, someone, somewhere is doing something right. I'm not saying that things couldn't have been marketed better, but, c'mon, how much higher could this thing go?? Anything around 200M is NUTS!!! Nuts I say!!! Nuts!!!
 
Anything in the "friendly neighborhood" of 200M is a YUGE win for Marvel. These number being thrown around are nuts....hopefully true, but, still, nuts!!!

We like nuts in these parts.
 
This movie will gross what Ultron should have, all that "TA1 was lightening In a bottle" BS was just that, BS.
 
I agree with InCali here. Anything above a $200M domestic opening weekend is absolute gravy, even for a movie of this scope.

My initial predicted range for its DOW was $190M-$210M and I'm sticking with that. I feel like it could even go under $190M but $210M is the absolute high end.
 
I've talked to quite a few people that aren't fanatical about comic movies...sorry to say this but after the mess that *** was, they aren't that excited about this. It will hurt the domestic in my opinion
 
This movie will gross what Ultron should have, all that "TA1 was lightening In a bottle" BS was just that, BS.

It was BS in a bottle. No more talk about that once CW numbers come out and then again when IW 1 & 2 both beat it. ;)
 
OK. I'm nuts. I decided to go to the 7pm Cinemark 3D XD showing instead of margaritas. Gotta run if I'm still going to grab something to eat.

Later skaters.....
 
I've talked to quite a few people that aren't fanatical about comic movies...sorry to say this but after the mess that *** was, they aren't that excited about this. It will hurt the domestic in my opinion


Anecdotal evidence isn't worth much. I've been wearing my Captain America shirt and gotten a lot of compliments from people hyped for the movie. Neither of our examples hold a lot of weight.
 
OK. I'm nuts. I decided to go to the 7pm Cinemark 3D XD showing instead of margaritas. Gotta run if I'm still going to grab something to eat.

Later skaters.....
Enjoy mate! :cool:
 
Anecdotal evidence isn't worth much. I've been wearing my Captain America shirt and gotten a lot of compliments from people hyped for the movie. Neither of our examples hold a lot of weight.

Me too Brotha....everything is speculation until numbers come in. I'm just hoping for AOU numbers
 
OK. I'm nuts. I decided to go to the 7pm Cinemark 3D XD showing instead of margaritas. Gotta run if I'm still going to grab something to eat.

Later skaters.....

Have fun I am going to a 9pm tonight 2d. I am going to leave soon to try to get good seats. I would prefer to go 3d but ever one I know hates 3d it gets really annoying lol.
 
Couldn't have said it better.

Yeah and its not like Avengers made 500 million more then avengers 2 or something. Avengers 2 only made about 100 million less and that was only because its reception while not bad was not has good has the first one. If it had the same reception it would have made the same maybe even more then avengers 1.
 
Having now finally seen it, I want it to make all the moneys. I also think $600M DOM is probable as the legs on this thing are going to be fantastic.
 
Wish i have a 4-d cinema that i can watch this movie in. Sounds like all those that went to a 4-d screening had tons of fun , not just on screen but the effects that they have in the cinema to go with what's on the screen.
 
The numbers will be fantastic but CW isn't beating JW.

I expect you are probably correct but I think there is a chance. It looks to be headed to a $200M+ OW and the legs should be great, so domestic could be close. The international grosses have been great so far and $1B+ looks possible. However, I think it will probably finish $100-150M short of JW worldwide, as JW did crazy well in Europe and that is where CW is looking a bit soft.
 
As long as CW is anywhere close to avengers numbers , it'll be a big win for disney & marvel studios. (and Kevin Feige since it is his power play to remove Perlmutter from making the budget decisions about marvel movies)
 
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