Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[FunkMiller]

So, here's your first indicator of the power of positive WOM on a movie.

BvS opens higher than CW, but drops 38% Friday to Saturday

CW only drops a predicted 20% Friday to Saturday.

 

[Adder]

I predicted 190m. The only thing that might have gotten it into the 220 range like some were predicting would have been to utilize Spider-Man much more in the marketing campaign or for it to have been called Avengers: Civil War. I think the decision not to push Spider-Man hard will go down as a big mistake. 180 is great though.

 

[StormC]

Being a minor character in the movie, Spider-Man being pushed too much would hurt its WOM even if it gave it a bigger opening. The positive WOM that will come from Spidey due to the surprise/novelty factor will balance it out IMO.

 

[def28]

What was the studios prediction for this out of curiosity?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

What was the studios prediction for this out of curiosity?

$175 million

 

[def28]

$175 million

Awesome, thank you

 

[spiderman2]

I've never been able to really establish a huge correlation between legs and quality in foreign territories. I'm seeing $850-900 M Foreign, $450-500 M domestic right now.

Well I do think the is some correlation even BVS chased and burned OS its second weekend but China is the one that is always hard to predect. I think we will have a better idea after next week after we have seen what kind of droppes it has had both OS and domestically. But the movie was already at 291m OS not counting china's first 2 days of like 69 million. So that puts it at 360 right there and I think that doesn't include what ever it made OS on sat and what ever it made in china that day to has Saturday in USA is like Sunday in china with the time difference. Going into Monday it may already be at like 450-520 OS.

 

[grieven]

Well I do think the is some correlation even BVS chased and burned OS its second weekend but China is the one that is always hard to predect. I think we will have a better idea after next week after we have seen what kind of droppes it has had both OS and domestically. But the movie was already at 291m OS not counting china's first 2 days of like 69 million. So that puts it at 360 right there and I think that doesn't include what ever it made OS on sat and what ever it made in china that day to has Saturday in USA is like Sunday in china with the time difference. Going into Monday it may already be at like 450-520 OS.

According to Deadline:

Disney’s/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War cashed in a $60M-$61M Saturday, the fifth highest ever, beating Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $56.5M last year. This points Civil War in the $180M-$183M vicinity for it opening weekend, which would make it the fifth highest domestic debut of all-time. By EOD tomorrow, Civil War is poised to hit $700M worldwide.

So if CW makes $180 million in North America, sounds like the overseas total will be in the $520 million range by end of weekend.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

Ok so I have seen Civil War 3 times at the cinema. 2D, 3D, and 4D. Yay me.


After the third viewing I think this movie, while still incredibly good, does have some issues with how dark and serious it becomes in the third act. The airport scene was the highlight and got many people oohing and ahhing, but the fight between Iron Man and Cap w/Bucky was pretty hard to watch and digest. I think $180 mil would be the best case scenario for this movie. Being #5 all time isn't too shabby. I have a feeling Infinity War Part 1 and/or 2 will have a shot at cracking JW's record. As much as I love the Russo brothers, I hope they will take a page out of the Avengers 1 and make the movie more epic and grander in scale for the Infinity War. I'd like to see the airport fight stretched out and encompass the whole movie if possible.

 

[Chesterfield]

Wait what? 700million by the end of tomorrow?? Wow!

 

[ImSGirl95]

Wait what? 700million by the end of tomorrow?? Wow!

Yeah, is this a sure thing? It's still at 366 for now at Boxofficemojo

Edit: To think of it, yeah, actually it may be a sure thing. Yay!

 

[grieven]

That's according to the Deadline boxoffice article.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/


I've been looking for China and overseas numbers but don't see any yet. I'm sure more box office info from around the globe should come out later today.

 

[ImSGirl95]

That's according to the Deadline boxoffice article.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/


I've been looking for China and overseas numbers but don't see any yet. I'm sure more box office info from around the globe should come out later today.

Yeah, 700 could be a sure thing. It's at 366 (and more that is) and it needs around 300+ to make it to 700 worldwide. We now have China, USA and the other countries and I think it is possible to make it to 700 very soon.

 

[Pokkle]

I've been looking for China and overseas numbers but don't see any yet. I'm sure more box office info from around the globe should come out later today.

https://***********/chinaboxoffice

Yeah, is this a sure thing? It's still at 366 for now at Boxofficemojo

Edit: To think of it, yeah, actually it may be a sure thing. Yay!

The 366m doesn't include China.

Yeah, it is possible:
=> 291m WW before the weekend
=> 68.9m in China with Friday/Saturday
=> 180m in the US this weekend


Then you add:
=> What did China in Sunday
=> WW box office this weekend

 

[ImSGirl95]

The 366m doesn't include China.

Is that for sure? It's a combo of domestic and international. (?)

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Fun fact: Marvel Studios has more films in the worldwide top ten than any studio.

Disney has only two without MCU.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Fun fact: Marvel Studios has more films in the worldwide top ten than any studio.

Disney has only two without MCU.

I read it somewhere, can't remember where and if it was on a forum, but
"This is a Disneyworld. Every other studio is just living in it."

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Fun fact: Marvel Studios has more films in the worldwide top ten than any studio.

Disney has only two without MCU.

Though only one in the top 5. And this is of course unadjusted.

 

[Erzengel]

The top 4 movies last year was a Star Wars movie, a Marvel movie and a Pixar movie. I think domestically they came in 2nd with practically 9 less movies than Universal which was 1st.

 

[Tilapia]

If it does a 3x multiplier, that will be 540-550 in the states. If it does a 3.0 multiplier from the 360 OS number, that's over a billion foreign, so 1.6 is very reasonable. Little short of my lofty projections at 1.7, but should be inching above Ultron and Avengers with those kind of legs. Jurassic World and Star Wars are cross generational franchises. The only way Marvel is going to get that is to do Phases 4-6 and 7-9.

 

[samsnee]

What a world we live in when a $200m opening weekend is almost expected for these types of movies.

 

[johnboy3434]

What a world we live in when a $200m opening weekend is almost expected for these types of movies.

Yeah, that's the funny thing about box office projections. This and BvS cost roughly the same amount to make. However, BvS's opening weekend was considered overperforming because it was expected to make $350M-$400M total, while CW actually has a better opening weekend but is considered a disappointment because it was expected to absolutely blow the doors off their hinges with $500M+. From an objective standpoint, CW is doing better than BvS, and yet...

 

[WilliamK99]

Why should it have Avengers in the title?

What a world we live in when a $200m opening weekend is almost expected for these types of movies.

Only by fan boys and people who know nothing about the box office... If you go to the legitimate trades, there wasn't much talk about a 200 million opening weekend. One thing you have to realize is rival studios almost always throw unrealistic numbers out there so when the real numbers come out, people think the movie is a disappointment...

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Though only one in the top 5. And this is of course unadjusted.

Only one? If you exclude MCU from Disney, no studio has more than one in the top 5 WW.

and there's no need to adjust. We need a list to reflect who's currently successful, not who was successful 30 years ago.

.

 

[gerrym51]

Only by fan boys and people who know nothing about the box office... If you go to the legitimate trades, there wasn't much talk about a 200 million opening weekend. One thing you have to realize is rival studios almost always throw unrealistic numbers out there so when the real numbers come out, people think the movie is a disappointment...

So BvS numbers were unrealistic?. Since fans take sides when one 'underperforms' the other gloats. just the way it is -lol