Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Raiden]

I think it is on to IW in terms of box office. You don't want to see AoU type numbers for part I, and then fall off a cliff domestically in part II, barely scratching Civil War numbers. You want to see growth, unlike what we saw with PoTC 3 and Matrix 3, which were massive disappointments critically and somewhat financially. You want to see LoTR OT type of growth, although that's a bit unrealistic as I consider that to be the best trilogy of all time. Sorry Star Wars fans.

There are just too many characters and stories to follow. Ultron was a bit silly. I think the audience just might be losing interest in this crop of characters. And shoving RDJ down our throats is going to hurt. I've posted elsewhere that I'd be really disappointed if he has a significant role in Spidey. Got to keep things fresh. I honestly think this group of Avengers will have run its course by Infinity War. Going two parts is a mistake. Time will tell.

I think going two parts for IW is brilliant. You don't build up Thanos since the Avengers just to have him be easily defeated in one movie, plus they can juggle the huge ensemble cast more handily with two movies by putting more emphasis a part of the cast in one movie but not the other. I believe the Russo Bros. will be able to tell an epic story that is really the culmination of MCU with they're given an extra movie to extend the narrative and give it the proper treatment.

 

[Flint Marko]

Is it just the Internet forums that sees AoU as some kind of huge failure? I thought that film had a pretty good RT and audience score. You'd think the movie was Spider-Man 3, Fantastic 4 type of bad the way some speak about it. It also lead to this Whedon hate which I find so ridiculous.

It didn't live up the the dizzying heights of its predecessor but it was a huge success across the board. Certain eager fanboys are quick to label it a failure but it wasn't in any regard.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya

60% 2nd wknd drop for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar a bit above #Marvel sequels - #Ultron 59%, IronMan3 58%, #WinterSoldier 57%.

Smashing both $800M & $900M global marks, #CaptainAmericaCivilWar does $84.2M intl wknd, $645M cume, $940.9M global. May hit $1B FRI.

Despite solid reviews, strong WOM & low competition, 60% 2nd wknd fall shows #CaptainAmericaCivilWar playing like 3quel. Auds came upfront.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

On a positive note, globally, it made more than what Age of Ultron made in 19 days. Maybe can hit $1B WW by Wednesday or Thursday.

 

[Pokkle]

They will reach the billion soon, that's good.

 

[hafizbat]

I think it is on to IW in terms of box office. You don't want to see AoU type numbers for part I, and then fall off a cliff domestically in part II, barely scratching Civil War numbers. You want to see growth, unlike what we saw with PoTC 3 and Matrix 3, which were massive disappointments critically and somewhat financially. You want to see LoTR OT type of growth, although that's a bit unrealistic as I consider that to be the best trilogy of all time. Sorry Star Wars fans.

There are just too many characters and stories to follow. Ultron was a bit silly. I think the audience just might be losing interest in this crop of characters. And shoving RDJ down our throats is going to hurt. I've posted elsewhere that I'd be really disappointed if he has a significant role in Spidey. Got to keep things fresh. I honestly think this group of Avengers will have run its course by Infinity War. Going two parts is a mistake. Time will tell.

I think you're being a little close-minded, focusing only on whether the movies will break records.

Even if the IW movies both remarkably underwhelm, the floor for any Avengers movie is probably at least 1 billion. Two 1 billion movies makes Marvel more than one amazing, lightning-in-the-bottle movie which couldn't make that much more than the first Avengers anyway.

Making two movies allows them to flesh out the story much, much more, and for Marvel fans provides twice the awesome.

So from both a business and artistic standpoint, making two infinity war movies is a sound decision. The only problem MIGHT be that it won't break new records, which really doesn't matter for anything but bragging rights.

 

[ImSGirl95]

So, is the 940 number good? When is it expected to hit the billion dollar mark?

 

[Iceman]

On a positive note, globally, it made more than what Age of Ultron made in 19 days. Maybe can hit $1B WW by Wednesday or Thursday.

What was AoU at at this stage? Do you remember if it opened with a similar international release schedule?

 

[marshal99]

So, is the 940 number good? When is it expected to hit the billion dollar mark?

BvS only wishes they can hit the billion dollar mark even with a headstart,

 

[gerrym51]

So, is the 940 number good? When is it expected to hit the billion dollar mark?

2/3 of it's markets going into 4th weekend

!/3 of it's markets including it's 2 biggest going into 3 rd weekend.

The slog to more dollars now starts

 

[Pokkle]

The MCU reached 10 billions, it's very good.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So, is the 940 number good? When is it expected to hit the billion dollar mark?

Fridayish.

 

[Iceman]

That table will be very interesting at the end of Phase 3.

 

[SamWinchester]

What do you think Civil War final WW and Domestic numbers will be? I think 430 million Domestic and 1.2 Billion world wide.

 

[writer0327]

Dom: 485m
ww: 1.4b

 

[ironman_rick]

When marvel releases a movie every summer...its gonna take some shine away from their movies (no matter how good they are).

This movie will cross a billion way before next weekend...and that's a success. I don't think any other movie could gross a billion this summer (maybe finding dory).

Yes, I was expecting more as civil war was one of my favorite comic books. But it seems that the mainstream audience prefer a team up movie against a strong villain and they will get that during IW1&2.

I do hope Disney releases marvel movies in the US earlier. Spoilers & bootlegs will hurt the OW if they continue to release them a week later.

 

[Chesterfield]

Fridayish.

I'm thinking by mid week.

 

[gerrym51]

Dom: 485m
ww: 1.4b

i predict 1.1 billion total

 

[mightiest_mortal]

Despite solid reviews, strong WOM & low competition, 60% 2nd wknd fall shows #CaptainAmericaCivilWar playing like 3quel. Auds came upfront.

I don't know if it's similar over more of Europe but it's biggest competition here in the UK has been the start of the British summer. Sun came out last weekend and nobody wants to go to the cinema in this beautiful weather.

 

[gerrym51]

I don't know if it's similar over more of Europe but it's biggest competition here in the UK has been the start of the British summer. Sun came out last weekend and nobody wants to go to the cinema in this beautiful weather.

as i've said-

2/3 of it's markets are going into 4th weekend

1/3 of it's markets is going into 3rd weekend. this includes China.

thru it's 2nd weekend china at 155 million and projected on boxoffice theory as max 180.

the box office has to come from somewhere

 

[Nokio]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya

60% 2nd wknd drop for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar a bit above #Marvel sequels - #Ultron 59%, IronMan3 58%, #WinterSoldier 57%.

Smashing both $800M & $900M global marks, #CaptainAmericaCivilWar does $84.2M intl wknd, $645M cume, $940.9M global. May hit $1B FRI.

Despite solid reviews, strong WOM & low competition, 60% 2nd wknd fall shows #CaptainAmericaCivilWar playing like 3quel. Auds came upfront.

So explain to me what I'm missing here cause this Cap has been more successful than its 2 previous predecessors

These films have a ceiling period like all. Cap doesn't appeal to everyone believe it or not but i don't see where a film that is gonna easily break a billion dollars WW is under performing, something the last 2 didnt do.

 

[Erzengel]

A lot of people thought with the strong reviews that this should hit numbers like the Avengers.

 

[Nokio]

I'm predicting 1.2 with about 420-440 on the domestic

 

[gerrym51]

So explain to me what I'm missing here cause this Cap has been more successful than its 2 previous predecessors

These films have a ceiling period like all. Cap doesn't appeal to everyone believe it or not but i don't see where a film that is gonna easily break a billion dollars WW is under performing, something the last 2 didnt do.

it breaks a billion but then it will be that crawl to 1.1 Billon. Most movies would die for these figures.

too many people are paralleling with BvS which launched ALL markets at the same time.

2/3 of CW were launched 1 week earlier.

i could be wrong but i just can't see where it gets another 260 million.

 

[JB33]

So explain to me what I'm missing here cause this Cap has been more successful than its 2 previous predecessors

These films have a ceiling period like all. Cap doesn't appeal to everyone believe it or not but i don't see where a film that is gonna easily break a billion dollars WW is under performing, something the last 2 didnt do.

I think the point there is that, regardless of how well the movie is doing in a vacuum, a 60% drop is unusual for a well received Marvel blockbuster. Both Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3 actually had slightly lower 2nd weekend drops. Very surprising.

Who knows? This might be the trend for Marvel films now. There's still a huge demand so they'll always be blockbuster films with huge openings, but the legs might start getting weaker and weaker.