Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm seeing Civil War again on Saturday. Hopefully, this will help get Civil War up at #1 again with 52.5% decrease.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

And, to those who think Disney aware disappointed with Civil War's numbers, they predicted a $175M opening weekend. So, they're completely satisfied.

 

[InCali]

That's my point. It's great that money stays in the house, it's just that it doesn't actually make the budget any lower

Maybe I'm missing something because I'm far from an economist or a business person, but even if the budget doesn't technically go down, income on the other side goes up so it's something of a net gain. Ultimately, the cost for Disney is lower.

Tilapia, sorry to hear you're so bummed out, but I've always felt that it's better to create something than make money playing the stock market (or, as I think of it, gambling). We need to produce and not try to lay our money on black.

 

[ernesth100]

Civil War is closing in on BvS. Crushed the BO so far and was released just a few days ago. I think it broke a record recently. It's tracking for at the very least, IM3 numbers. How can they not be satisfied?

 

[Bruce Malone]

And, to those who think Disney aware disappointed with Civil War's numbers, they predicted a $175M opening weekend. So, they're completely satisfied.

Studio's almost always publicly under-estimate their Opening weekends for big films to avoid any potential disappointments.

Either way I'm sure Disney was happy with CW's numbers assuming they didn't expect too much like they did with AoU where some execs were actually disappointed with the final totals despite the money it made.

 

[kedrell]

And just like that, CW has done what AoU did last year: put the MCU ahead of the entirety of the Pixar brand in terms of flat box office grosses WW. Presently the MCU is at $9.7898b WW while all of the Pixar movies to date have earned $9.6683b giving the MCU a current lead of $121.5m and given that CW is only around half done and could toss on another $700-800m WW that still likely won't be enough to offset Finding Dory when it's released as most experts expect it to break a billion $ easily and probably top TS3 as Pixar's highest grossing movie WW...maybe even beat Frozen to become the highest grossing animated film ever. That should be enough to make up what will likely be an $800m to $900m lead CW gives the MCU. But Pixar has no other film in 2016 and the MCU still has Dr. Strange in the fall which should cover what will likely be a $300m WW advantage to Pixar after FD and pass that by at least $200m WW if not more. After that, it's over. Pixar will simply never be able to keep up so after this fall the MCU will remain ahead in perpetuity.

 

[Filmfan93]

I thought the drop would be smaller than 50%... I'm still happy that the movie is making so much money

 

[StormC]

The second weekend drop? No way it would be smaller than 50%; that'd be a smaller drop than the Avengers.

 

[Knight_SV]

Are it safe to assume Civil War come as the Winner on all 3 major CBM movies competition?
I'm planning on seeing CW again later this week to help the WW gross

 

[LucDisfilm19]

The second weekend drop? No way it would be smaller than 50%; that'd be a smaller drop than the Avengers.

The Wrap is actually reporting some analysts are optimistic that it'll have a 50% or less drop with $90M in its second weekend.

 

[Jeight]

Are it safe to assume Civil War come as the Winner on all 3 major CBM movies competition?
I'm planning on seeing CW again later this week to help the WW gross

Well reading Apocalypse reviews and watching opinions from youtubers i trust i don't think it will challenge CW on any level.

Also i have read some worrying things about SS and Ayer's relationship with WB and if they come true i don't think any cbm will come near CW for the rest of the year.

 

[kedrell]

$210,190,925 away from the MCU having a $10b WW cume.

 

[kedrell]

Well reading Apocalypse reviews and watching opinions from youtubers i trust i don't think it will challenge CW on any level.

Also i have read some worrying things about SS and Ayer's relationship with WB and if they come true i don't think any cbm will come near CW for the rest of the year.

You're forgetting Dr. Strange. That's Feige's personal favorite project by all accounts.

 

[Jeight]

I haven't forgotten it but although i believe it's gonna be good it doesn't have Spidey, RDJ or i assume the critical response of CW. I think it will have to exceed expectations.

 

[StormC]

Strange could potentially do GOTG numbers, it depends on its reception and WOM.

The Wrap is actually reporting some analysts are optimistic that it'll have a 50% or less drop with $90M in its second weekend.

That'd be great but I doubt it. We've had a lot of 200M+ BO predictions for the OW and well...

 

[InCali]

The Wrap is actually reporting some analysts are optimistic that it'll have a 50% or less drop with $90M in its second weekend.

IMO, anything around 50% would be good news. Under 50% would be phenomenal. The pieces, however, are in place; good reviews, strong WOM, very little competition for the moviegoing dollar.

 

[InCali]

You're forgetting Dr. Strange. That's Feige's personal favorite project by all accounts.

I haven't forgotten it but although i believe it's gonna be good it doesn't have Spidey, RDJ or i assume the critical response of CW. I think it will have to exceed expectations.

I am TOTALLY looking forward to DS as him and Thor are my 2 fav comic book characters. The trailer was frelling mind blowing and we've got a terrific actor. I think it will overperform (though it's going to have some very stiff competition), but no way can it approach CW numbers. I wish it could, but no way.....

 

[Iceman]

And just like that, CW has done what AoU did last year: put the MCU ahead of the entirety of the Pixar brand in terms of flat box office grosses WW. Presently the MCU is at $9.7898b WW while all of the Pixar movies to date have earned $9.6683b giving the MCU a current lead of $121.5m and given that CW is only around half done and could toss on another $700-800m WW that still likely won't be enough to offset Finding Dory when it's released as most experts expect it to break a billion $ easily and probably top TS3 as Pixar's highest grossing movie WW...maybe even beat Frozen to become the highest grossing animated film ever. That should be enough to make up what will likely be an $800m to $900m lead CW gives the MCU. But Pixar has no other film in 2016 and the MCU still has Dr. Strange in the fall which should cover what will likely be a $300m WW advantage to Pixar after FD and pass that by at least $200m WW if not more. After that, it's over. Pixar will simply never be able to keep up so after this fall the MCU will remain ahead in perpetuity.

Nice. Once that Infinity War double header comes out the MCU will be in orbit.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Are it safe to assume Civil War come as the Winner on all 3 major CBM movies competition?
I'm planning on seeing CW again later this week to help the WW gross

I don’t see anything getting close to Civil War, either domestically or worldwide. No other film should come within $400M of its worldwide number nor is anything else going to cross $400M domestically.

Deadpool: $362M domestic, $762M worldwide
Batman v Superman: $329M, $870M
Civil War: $450M+, $1.2B+
Apocalypse: $200-$250M, $700-800M
TMNT 2: $150-$200M, $450-550M
Suicide Squad: $150-350M, $400M-750M (I’m pretty optimistic on SS doing GotG numbers)
Doctor Strange: $150M-300M, $500M-$750M (I’m fairly pessimistic on DS, mostly due to Fantastic Beasts)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

IMO, anything around 50% would be good news. Under 50% would be phenomenal. The pieces, however, are in place; good reviews, strong WOM, very little competition for the moviegoing dollar.

Yup. Tuesday's results will tell us more.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And on cue...

Gitesh Pandya ‎@GiteshPandya
$13.7M TUE for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar, up 3%, still running at #Avengers #Ultron levels on weekdays. $206M in 5.5 days.

UP 3% Tuesday. No freaking way this drops 55-60% next weekend. 50% or less.

ETA: just for comparison's sake here are the first Tuesday increases/drops for the other six Marvel May releases:

IM3 0.2
Thor 0.1
AoU -0.7
IM -6.2
Avengers -6.5
IM2 -10.5

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Is that good?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yah, very good. Per Gitesh CW is now running just 5% behind Ultron and 5% ahead of IM3.

 

[SuperAl]

theres apparently a fairly high quality leak of the movie out so pirating may be an issue for this movie going forward.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

theres apparently a fairly high quality leak of the movie out so pirating may be an issue for this movie going forward.

Yeah, it's apparently killing CW's number in China. Might keep it under $200 million there which would suck.